穆迪將中國主權評級展望調整爲負面

Moody's has warned it may downgrade China’s sovereign rating, a sign of increasing investor concern over the country’s rising debt and dwindling foreign exchange reserves.

穆迪(Moody's)警告稱，它可能會調降中國主權債務的評級。這一跡象表明，投資者對中國日益增加的債務負擔和不斷縮水的外匯儲備越來越擔憂。

The US rating agency revised its outlook on China from stable to negative, the first major step on the country by a rating agency since Fitch downgraded its rating three years ago, the first cut since 1999.

這家美國評級機構將其對中國政府債券的評級展望由穩定調整爲負面，這是自3年前惠譽(Fitch)下調中國主權信用評級（是自1999年以來的首次）以來，信用評級機構對中國採取的首個重大舉措。

Moody’s rates China’s government at Aa3, its fourth highest rating. That is in line with Standard & Poor’s double A minus rating, although S&P maintains a stable outlook. Fitch assesses China at A plus, one notch lower than its two peers, also with a stable outlook.

穆迪對中國政府債券的評級爲Aa3，這是其第四高評級，與標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)的AA-評級相當，不過標普對中國政府債券評級的展望仍維持在穩定。惠譽對中國的評級爲A+，比另兩家機構低一檔，展望也是穩定。

In addition to rising debt and falling reserves, Moody’s attributed its move to “uncertainty about the authorities’ capacity to implement reforms — given the scale of reform challenges — to address imbalances in the economy”.

除了不斷上升的債務水平以及下滑的外匯儲備外，穆迪還將此舉歸因於“鑑於改革面臨艱鉅挑戰，政府爲解決經濟失衡而實施改革的能力存在不確定性”。

China’s top leaders are trying to steer growth away from heavy industry and debt-fuelled investment towards consumption and services. Recent data indicates mild progress towards rebalancing but analysts warn that policymakers need to accelerate structural reforms to arrest the economic slowdown.

中國最高領導層正努力使經濟增長不再依賴重工業和由債務推動的投資，而是依靠消費和服務業。最新數據表明中國的經濟再平衡取得了一定進展，但分析師警告稱，政策制定者需要加快結構改革以抑制經濟放緩。

Recent policy moves, including record bank lending in January and a cut to banks’ required reserve ratio on Monday, suggest policymakers are prioritising short-term stimulus over structural reforms, including efforts to rein in debt.

最近的政策舉動——包括1月新增人民幣貸款創下紀錄以及本週一宣佈的下調銀行準備金率——表明，政策制定者正把短期刺激置於結構改革（包括努力控制債務水平）之上。

“It is a matter of balance. Reforms could indeed slow growth in the short term. [But] if they were reforms that pointed toward a levelling off of leverage and more efficient allocation of capital, then we would see that as a positive," Marie Diron, senior vice-president for sovereign ratings at Moody’s, said in an interview.

“這是個把握平衡的問題。改革確實有可能在短期內抑制增長。（但）如果改革指向的是去槓桿和提高資本配置效率，那麼我們就會視其爲正面因素，”穆迪主權風險部高級副總裁瑪麗•迪龍(Marie Diron)在接受採訪時稱。

“There will be significant further fiscal and monetary stimulus to maintain growth at robust levels. If that stimulus then delays reform, then we think it’s a negative signal.”

“未來中國還會推出更多重大財政和貨幣刺激措施來維持穩健的經濟增長。如果這些刺激措施使得改革延後，那麼我們便認爲這是負面信號。”