加拿大新政逼中國買家到澳大利亞大綱

Canada’s government recently made an abrupt decision that could have repercussions for Australia’s already overvalued residential property market.

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on February 11 announced that a 28-year-old visa scheme designed to attract wealthy foreigners to the country would be axed, effective immediately.

Under the now defunct Immigrant Investor Program, as long as you had a cool $C1.6 million ($1.6 million) in net assets, then all you needed to do was lend the Canadian government $C800,000 for five years on an interest-free basis and you were assured permanent residency for you and your family and a fast-track to citizenship.

The decision raised some eyebrows, not least because preceding the decision there had been growing chatter that the country’s already expensive housing market was being inflated even further by a wave of wealthy Chinese entrants into the country, and in Vancouver in particular.

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At the time the immigration scheme was axed, there was a backlog of 65,000 applicants, of which 45,500 were mainland Chinese – and 80 per cent of those were bound for the province of British Columbia, according to analysis by the South China Morning Post.

Indeed, The Economist rates Canada’s residential property market as one of the world’s most expensive. The magazine’s analysts say housing is 76 per cent overvalued against long-term averages on a rental basis – the highest among the 23-country league table – and 31 per cent against disposable incomes.

The ratio of Canadian household debt to GDP has risen to almost 100 per cent, and has grown at the fastest rate in the world since 2006, according to the World Bank. In April 2012, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney – now the head of the Bank of England – warned of the risks of foreign capital inflating the housing market.

More buyers to look in Australia

Canada may seem like a long way away but any move by Canadian authorities to reduce the risk of a ­potential bubble and subsequent burst should be welcomed by Australian investors, says Tyndall Asset Management’s head of fixed income, Roger Bridges.

The country’s housing market is one on a list of “low probability, high impact” events the bond strategist is keeping an eye on.

That’s because while our local lenders have little direct exposure to Canadian banks, the similarity between our two economies could cause a fresh wave of risk aversion among global investors, many of whom already believe our property market is a bubble ready to pop.

Of course, rich foreigners can only push up prices at the margin, and usually only in specific areas; low interest rates have helped fuel Canadian demand for mortgages, against the background of an economy that avoided a GFC-inspired recession thanks to its heavy emphasis on ­commodity exports.

All this might be sounding familiar to Australians, particularly those who have been house hunting in Sydney, where anecdotal evidence suggests auctions in some areas have been heavily attended by wealthy Chinese buyers willing to pay lofty premiums.

And the decision by Canada to restrict access to such rich individuals can only boost interest in our market.

Research by HSBC Bank suggests more than one-third of affluent Asians own overseas property, and that our market is the number one destination for further investment. Of the wealthy mainland Chinese surveyed by HSBC, 9 per cent owned property in Australia, while of the respondents from Hong Kong, 10 per cent did.

Of the rich Indians surveyed 18 per cent owned Australian property, 19 per cent of Indonesians and Singaporeans, 26 per cent of Malaysians, and 5 per cent of wealthy Taiwanese.

But while home buyers may ­complain, it’s great news for local ­property developers, such as the listed Australand.

It revealed in its annual results on February 17 that it sold about 15 per cent of its residential developments to offshore investors in 2013, primarily mainland Chinese, almost double the historical average of 8 per cent.

The sales were made through its Hong Kong office, which Australand opened some 10 years ago. The company said it expected demand from that segment to remain at the same level in 2014.

But on the evidence of growing overseas interest in grabbing a slice of the Australian dream, that may be a ­conservative view.加拿大財政部長費海提取消了爲吸引具有購買力的外國買家的政策，可能會對澳大利亞已經被高估的住宅物業市場帶來不利影響。

加拿大財政部長費海提在本月11號宣佈即時生效的新政：取消已存在28年的旨在吸引富有的外國人的簽證政策。

原有政策規定，擁有淨資產達160萬美元的外國人，無息貸款給加拿大政府達五年，借款人及其家人即可獲得永久居留權並可提前獲得加拿大國籍。

有一些人並不支持原有的政策，很大一部分原因是越來越多人認爲加拿大國內原本已高企的樓價被富裕的中國人進一步推高了，在溫哥華尤爲明顯。

據《南華早報》的分析，在政策被取消時，有六萬五千名申請者的申請被積壓，其中有四萬五千五百名爲中國大陸人，他們之中百分之八十準備前往位於加拿大西部的不列顛哥倫比亞省

《經濟學人》雜誌將加拿大的住宅物業市場評爲全球最貴之一。該雜誌的分析員認爲在租賃方面，住房和長期以來的平均數值相比被高估了百分之七十六，是參評的二十三個國家中最高的，超出可支配收入百分之三十一。

根據世界銀行的數據，加拿大的家庭債務與國內生產總值的比值接近一比一，是2006年以來增長最快的國家。2012年4月，前加拿大銀行主席、現任英格蘭銀行行長馬克·卡爾尼，警告外國資本具有使房地產市場膨脹的風險。

更多的買家考察澳大利亞

廷德爾資產管理公司固定資產部門的負責人羅傑·布瑞吉斯表示，加拿大可能提早許多作出調整，但加拿大當局做出的減少泡沫出現的風險的舉措應該受到澳大利亞投資者的歡迎。

加拿大的房地產市場屬於安全性高，影響力大的類型，正被債務研究人士密切注意。

上述現象的原因是，澳大利亞的本土放貸者與加拿大方面的銀行只有很少的聯繫。兩國經濟的相似程度會使很大數量的全球投資者選擇規避風險，他們之中的很多人已經認爲澳大利亞的房地產市場的泡沫將要破裂。

當然，富有的外國人只能在邊緣上推高價格，並且通常只在特定的領域。低利息率使加拿大，在嚴重依賴商品出口的經濟背景之下對貸款的需求增大。

所有上述的情況對於澳大利亞來說都很熟悉，特別是那些曾在悉尼購房的人。一些證據顯示，悉尼的某些地方的拍賣會已經有願意出高昂額外費用的中國買家出席。

而加拿大限制那些富有的人進入該國後，只會使澳大利亞市場利率升高。

匯豐銀行的調查顯示超過三分之一的富有的亞洲人擁有海外資產，澳大利亞是他們進行海外投資的首選目的地。參加調查的來自中國大陸的人中有百分之九的人在澳大利亞擁有房產，來自香港的被調查者中有百分之10擁有澳大利亞房產。

其他地區參與調查的同樣擁有澳大利亞房產的情況是，百分之十八的印度人、百分之十九的印度尼西亞人和新加坡人、百分之二十六的馬來西亞人和百分之五的臺灣人。

儘管想要購買房產的人對這種情況不滿，對於澳大利亞國內的地產商確是有好處的，例如澳洲置地。

該公司在本月17號發佈的年報顯示，在2013年有百分之十五的住宅賣給了海外投資者，主要來自中國大陸，幾乎是歷史記錄百分之八的翻倍。

交易在該公司十年前開始設立在香港的辦事處進行。該公司表示他們預期2014年在該類型的房產的需求上會同2013年持平。

但從不斷增長的海外投資對於澳大利亞前景十分看好這方面來看，這似乎是保守看法。