Lex專欄 中澳鐵礦項目的黑洞

Citic Pacific’s Sino Iron venture will live for ever – as a textbook study of inexperienced management meeting Murphy’s law. The project, in Australia’s Pilbara region, has already exceeded its budget five times over. It is finally shipping ore, admittedly, and is setting a new standard of openness for Chinese state-owned groups by talking about what went wrong. But when $10bn has been sunk into a very big hole, perseverance and openness are not so much virtues as necessities.

中信泰富(Citic Pacific)的中澳鐵礦項目(Sino Iron)，將成爲經驗不足的管理層遭遇“墨菲定律”（任何有可能發生的壞事，總會發生——譯者注）的一個經典案例。該項目位於澳大利亞皮爾巴拉(Pilbara)地區，目前其實際投資已經超出預算的5倍。誠然，該項目終於開始產礦了，而且管理層也開始檢討問題所在，在透明度上爲中國國有企業罕見。但是，當100億美元被扔進無底洞的時候，堅持和透明就是次要問題了。

The chairman’s statement, part of its full-year results, was refreshing. Too many SoEs seem to run corporate buzzwords through Google Translate and rearrange them. A chairman who admits more hands-on management was needed is a novelty, though cynics might read that as a promise never to invest alongside fellow-SoE China Metallurgical Group (MCC) again. MCC’s initial plan to import cheap Chinese labour into the Pilbara, for example, never stood a chance. The risk management issue will stir up bad memories for investors who remember the 50 per cent share slide that followed Citic Pacific’s $2bn currency hedge loss in 2008.

作爲其全年業績報告的一部分，中信泰富董事長的聲明令人耳目一新。太多中國國企在發佈聲明時，似乎只是通過谷歌翻譯(Google Translate)找上些行業流行詞，然後重新組織一下就算完事。而中信泰富董事長承認需要更加“親力親爲”的管理，這令人感到新奇。不過懷疑人士也可能將此解讀爲，中信泰富永遠不想再和這個項目中的合作方——中冶集團(China Metallurgical Group)合作投資了。中冶最初計劃將中國廉價勞動力輸入皮爾巴拉地區，現在看來完全做不到。風險管理問題始終是中信泰富投資者揮不去的痛：2008年，由於在匯率對衝操作中損失20億美元，該公司股價曾下跌50%。

Sino Iron makes up less than a third of Citic Pacific’s assets, which include property, telecoms and steel, but it is the top priority for the management team, according to its chairman. Production this year could top 3m tonnes. To reach its 24m full capacity, more investment is needed. But Citic Pacific will not say how much or when, nor will it lay out production costs. Refining low-grade magnetite into ore on this scale admittedly faces unique challenges. Any figure is hostage to factors ranging from ore prices and labour costs to the outcome of a bitter court battle over royalties. But investors still deserve to know what rate of return the company expects. Or is this a hole so deep the only option is to keep digging regardless?

中信泰富的資產包括房地產、電信和鋼鐵。儘管中澳鐵礦項目在其中佔比不足三分之一，但據其董事長所言，該項目是管理團隊的第一要務。今年，該項目產量最高可能達到300萬噸。要實現其2400萬噸的全部產能，還需要加大投資。但中信泰富不會透露增資多少或者何時增資，也不會透露生產成本。在當前產能下，將低品級磁鐵礦精煉出礦石，可謂不小的挑戰。公司業績還受到各種因素的影響，從鐵礦石價格和勞動力成本，到圍繞使用權費的棘手的法律訴訟。但投資者迫切想知道，該公司預期的回報率是多少。或者說這個洞已經太深了，唯一的選擇是，不管怎樣也要繼續挖下去？