Lex專欄 漢能股票迎來陽光嗎
ComModity cycles. We have all seen them. High returns and low barriers to entry suck in lots of players, profits fall, no one exits, companies bleed to death. Of course, sometimes one or two participants gain a competitive advantage (for instance technology, or financial backing) to ensure survival. For the rest it is carnage.
In the past decade China, with its predilection for irrational capital allocation, has been a big player in low tech, capital-intensive industries such as solar panel production. Developed world subsidies made the industry profitable, and Chinese companies leapt in. A glut in output ensued.
過去10年裏，存在非理性資本配置傾向的中國，一直在大力發展技術水平低的資本密集型產業，如太陽能電池板的生產。發達國家的補貼使該行業能夠盈利，於是中國企業競相涌入。供應過剩接踵而至。The share price performance of Hong Kong-listed China solar play Hanergy this week might suggest that things are looking up. On Thursday morning, the stock jumped as much as 40 per cent, adding $14bn to the company’s value. Even before that it was up two-fifths since Monday. The shares, nearly three-quarters of which are owned by the founder Li Hejun, closed up 14 per cent for a market capitalisation of $40bn.
在香港上市的中國太陽能企業漢能(Hanergy)本週的股價表現可能表明，情況正在好轉。週四上午，該股飆升40%，使公司市值一舉增加140億美元。在那之前，該股自週一以來已上漲五分之二。昨日該股收盤漲14%，市值達到400億美元。創始人李河君擁有該公司近四分之三的股份。
There has been good news. This week, both Hanergy and peer GCL Poly announced positive profit warnings. GCL Poly will make its first profit in three years; Hanergy’s profits will rise more than half year on year (that is one-third ahead of market forecasts). And a recent viral video in China may have helped to reignite interest in the environment. On China’s mainland indices, stocks with “environment” in the name have hit Shanghai’s maximum 10 per cent upside move each day this week. Hong Kong has no constraints and through Stock Connect (which links the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges), Hanergy has been mainlanders’ top net buy this week.
近來有一些利好消息。本週，漢能和同行保利協鑫能源(GCL Poly)都發布了正面盈利預告。保利協鑫將報告3年來首次盈利；漢能的利潤將同比增長50%以上（比市場預測高出三分之一）。最近一部在中國被廣泛點播的視頻可能重燃了人們對環境問題的興趣。在中國內地股指中，本週名稱中帶有“環境”的成份股天天在上海股市漲停（觸及10%的每日漲幅上限）。香港股市沒有此類漲停限制，通過連接上海和香港股市的“滬港通”，漢能是本週內地投資者淨買入量最大的股票。But Hanergy is not quite like other Chinese solar companies. The stock is now valued at over 100 times the 2014 earnings it just flagged. Its market capitalisation — $1.4bn two years ago — is now $39bn. The share price rise has been breathtaking. But falls from grace can be no less spectacular.
但漢能與中國其它太陽能企業並不是很相像。當前股價達到該公司剛剛指引的2014年盈利的逾100倍。兩年前僅14億美元的市值，現已達到390億美元。迄今的股價上漲令人喘不過氣，但假如掉頭下跌，其跌勢也會同樣壯觀。
