日圓止跌 日本通脹還會上升嗎

Japan's inflation, as measured by consumer prices, is rising steadily about a year after a policy shift by the Bank of Japan -- yet few economists believe it will reach the bank's inflation target by the mid-2015 deadline.

日本央行(Bank of Japan)政策轉型已時過一年，以消費者價格衡量的日本通貨膨脹正在穩步上升。但很少有經濟學家相信，日本通脹率將在2015年年中的最後期限之前達到央行目標。

One reason is their different understanding of what the yen's recent stability means to the price outlook.

其中一個原因是，他們對日圓近期的持穩對物價前景意味着什麼有着不同的看法。

Core consumer prices are getting closer to the central bank's 2% target. Data Friday showed they rose 1.3% in January from a year earlier, the eighth straight month they've risen. The core gauge tracks a basket of goods and services but excludes fresh food, whose costs are volatile.

核心消費者價格指數(CPI)升幅日益接近央行2%的目標。週五公佈的數據顯示，日本1月核心CPI同比上升1.3%，爲連續第八個月上升。核心CPI指標跟蹤一籃子商品和服務價格，但不包括波動較大的生鮮食品價格。

But economists aren't so impressed by the data. Roughly half of the current inflation in consumer products is due to the dramatic drop in the yen from late 2012 to mid-2013, they say. That has sharply inflated the costs of imports, which have partly been passed on to consumers.

但經濟學家並不太看重上述數據。他們說，當前的消費者物價通脹幅度有一半都是2012年年底-2013年年中日圓匯率暴跌所致。日圓匯率下挫大幅推高了進口價格，進口價格上漲又部分地被轉嫁給消費者。

Significantly, core CPI does include energy, where the yen effect has been particularly acute. According to the BOJ's import price data, the costs of liquid natural gas -- now a main resource in Japan for generating power -- were 17% higher in January in yen terms.

值得注意的是，核心CPI包括能源價格，而能源價格受日圓匯率波動的影響非常大。根據日本央行進口價格數據，1月份以日圓計的液化天然氣價格上漲了17%。目前液化天然氣是日本主要發電資源。

The Japanese also saw sharp rises in prices of foreign-made home electronics, which they increasingly import: Prices of washing machines were up 13%, while prices of audio equipment and refrigerators both rose 16%.

日本進口量越來越大的外國產家電的價格也出現大幅上漲：洗衣機價格上漲了13%，音響設備和冰箱的價格均上漲了16%。

Barring another major drop in the yen, however, those exchange-rate effects will start to fade from this spring. Friday morning, the yen was trading around Y102 to the U.S. dollar -- about the same level it was last May.

不過，除非日圓再大幅下挫，否則日圓匯率波動的影響將從今年春季開始減弱。週五前市，美元/日圓報102日圓左右，與去年5月份的水平大致相同。

'Core prices will peak out' by March, said Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. Core CPI will then fall over the summer, he said, ultimately reaching 0.7%-0.8% by September.

第一生命經濟研究所(Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute)首席經濟學家Toshihiro Nagahama表示，核心物價升幅將在3月份見頂，今年夏季將出現下降，9月份之前最終回落至0.7%-0.8%。

BOJ officials see things differently. They expect core inflation to stay around 1.3% until summer and then pick up pace as a stronger domestic economy creates new inflationary pressures to offset the fading currency effect.

日本央行官員的看法不同。他們預計核心通脹率在夏季之前將保持在1.3%上下的水平，然後再加速上升，因爲更爲強勁的國內經濟將產生新的通脹壓力，從而抵消匯率方面推動力量減弱的影響。

As evidence of improved domestic demand, BOJ officials point to 'core-core' consumer prices, which exclude food and energy. They rose 0.7% in both December and January, their highest level since 1998.

爲了說明國內需求的改善，日本央行舉了“核心的核心（即不包括食品和能源價格的）消費物價”的證據。這種消費物價去年12月和今年1月都上漲了0.7%，爲1998年以來的最高漲幅。

The problem, economists say, is that 40% of the recent core-core increase is due to a one-off rise last year in accident insurance costs and public services.

經濟學家們說，問題是近期核心的核心物價升幅中，有40%都是去年一次性的意外險價格和公共服務價格上升所致。

'Those increases had little to do with demand and supply,' said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute.

農林中金綜合研究所(Norinchukin Research Institute)首席經濟學家狩野陽(Takeshi Minami)表示，這種漲幅與供求的關係不大。

Another issue is a sales tax increase that takes effect in April. Sellers have incentives to raise prices before the tax hike to take advantage of consumers' expected rush buying. That should create a bump in inflation -- but economists say it, too, is likely to be only temporary if demand drops off as expected after the tax takes effect.

另外一個問題是將於4月實施的銷售稅上調。賣家想借預期中的消費者搶購之機在銷售稅上調之前提高價格。這應該會製造通脹，但經濟學家說，如果銷售稅真正上調之後需求如預期般下降，那麼這種通脹可能也將是暫時的。