FT社評 日本央行須確保通脹達標

Fifteen years of deflationary conditions were a disaster for Japan. From the mid-1990s its economy shrank in cash terms, wrecking the public finances. Net government debt ballooned to more than 130 per cent of gross domestic product. Having previously dazzled its rivals during years of fast growth, Japan gradually transformed from economic exemplar to cautionary tale.

連續十五年陷入通縮對日本來說是一場災難。從上世紀90年代中期開始，以貨幣計量的日本經濟持續萎縮，這讓公共財政難以爲繼。政府淨負債與國內生產總值(GDP)之比急劇膨脹至130%。日本曾在早年的快速增長期間讓競爭對手驚歎不已，但現在則逐漸從經濟增長標杆轉變爲一個令人警醒的故事。

When Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, took office in December 2012 he made clear his intention to break Japan’s deflation. The bank of Japan, under a new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, was ordered to pursue a goal of 2 per cent inflation. But after impressive early progress, the economy slowed, partly dragged down by an increase in sales taxes. Voices can now be heard doubting whether Mr Kuroda can succeed in putting the country back on to a path of rising prices

當日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)在2012年12月上臺的時候，他明確表示打算結束日本的通縮。新行長黑田東彥(Haruhiko Kuroda)領導的日本央行(BoJ)被要求設定2%的通脹目標。但在最初取得明顯進展之後，日本經濟增長放緩，這在一定程度上受到消費稅上調的拖累。現在有人表示懷疑，黑田東彥能否成功讓日本重新回到通脹的軌道上來。

On Friday Mr Kuroda emphatically refuted these doubts by increasing his purchases of government bonds from Y60tn-Y70tn annually to Y80tn. In response, Japanese stocks rose 5 per cent, the yen fell 2 per cent, and even the US stock market hit a record high.

上週五，黑田東彥斷然駁斥了這些懷疑，他將每年購買政府債券的規模從60萬億至70萬億日元提高至80萬億日元。日本股市應聲大漲5%，日元則暴跌2%，甚至美國股市也創出歷史新高。

While central bankers are seldom encouraged to shock the market, Mr Kuroda’s stance should be applauded. Deflation is rightly described as a trap. When consumers and businesses expect lower prices they postpone spending, expecting their cash to go further if hoarded. This drains demand from the economy. Weaker prices acquire a self-fulfilling dynamic. Had Mr Kuroda played down his inflation target, it would have demonstrated that he could be beaten by wavering market confidence.

儘管央行行長們很少被鼓勵對市場造成衝擊，但我們應該爲黑田東彥的立場歡呼。將通縮描述爲一種陷阱是正確的。當消費者和企業預計價格下降時，他們會延遲支出，寄望於囤積的現金將來會更值錢。這從經濟中抽走了需求。價格下跌獲得了一種自我實現的動能。假如黑田東彥淡化其通脹目標，那就會表明，他可能被猶豫不決的市場信心擊敗了。

This is all the more important because management of expectations is critical to his task. Exports contribute just 15 per cent to Japanese GDP, and corporate Japan gains little from a weaker yen, since much of its operations and raw materials are overseas. Nor is there much to be gained from lower interest rates on bonds that already yield less than 1 per cent. Neither of these channels can match the potential benefits that would arise from breaking Japan out of its deflationary mindset.

這格外重要，因爲管理預期對他的使命至爲關鍵。出口僅佔到日本GDP的15%，日本企業幾乎沒有從日元下跌中受益，因爲許多業務和原材料都在海外。債券利率下降（目前不到1%）也沒有帶來多大好處。這些渠道都比不上日本擺脫通縮心態後產生的潛在收益。

Restoring inflation is only one of the “three arrows” of Mr Abe’s strategy to raise Japan’s growth rate. The prime minister still needs to shake up the overly rigid Japanese labour market, push forward trade agreements and encourage companies to spend their hoards of cash. But the rest of “Abenomics” will struggle if Mr Kuroda’s arrow misses its target. It is easier to encourage new workers into the labour market when wages are rising. The strongest reason for a company to invest is an expectation of rising sales. In the immediate future there needs to be support for economic demand in order to counter a further rise in the sales tax. All of these are arguments for Mr Kuroda to do more, not less.

恢復通脹只是安倍推動日本增長戰略的“三支箭”之一。安倍仍需要撼動日本過分僵化的勞動力市場，推動締結貿易協議並鼓勵企業支出它們囤積的現金。但如果黑田東彥的箭沒有射中目標，“安倍經濟學”的其他部分就難以成功。當薪資上漲時，就會更容易鼓勵新的勞動者進入勞動力市場。一家公司進行投資的最有力理由是預計銷售將會上升。日本在短期內有必要支撐經濟需求以抵消消費稅進一步上漲的影響。所有這些都是黑田東彥增加、而非減少行動的理由。

The close vote in favour of Mr Kuroda’s latest action indicates growing concerns in the BoJ at the increasing use of quantitative easing. But the consequences of a failure to sustain positive inflation are far more serious. As its society ages and savers turn into spenders, the Japanese state has little prospect of managing its high levels of debt without higher nominal growth.

日本央行以微弱優勢通過了黑田東彥的最新舉措，這表明該行對加大量化寬鬆日益感到不安。但如果不能將通脹維持在正值水平，後果將會嚴重得多。隨着日本社會老齡化和儲戶開始支出，如果名義增長沒有上升，日本政府管理鉅額債務的可能性微乎其微。

The market may have been shocked by the BoJ announcement, but it should not have been. Central bank credibility is about carrying through what was promised. Mr Kuroda has vowed to sustain a moderate level of inflation. Subdued sentiment built up over decades was never going to be dispelled in months. Should expectations of inflation remain weak Mr Kuroda’s task is simple: he has to do more.

市場可能受到日本央行聲明的衝擊，但它不應如此。央行信譽與能否履行承諾有關。黑田東彥已經誓言要維持溫和的通脹水平，但幾十年來累積的低迷情緒絕不會在幾個月裏消散。如果通脹預期依然疲弱，黑田東彥的任務就很簡單：他不得不出臺更多的舉措。