日本日興資產管理下調全球股市預期

In a sign of the tensions roiling global markets, Japan's third-biggest fund manager has abruptly slashed its stance on global equities to neutral from overweight for the first time since 2011.

日本第三大基金管理機構日興資產管理有限公司(Nikko Asset Management Co.)意外將全球股市評級從增持降至中性，這是該公司2011年以來首次做這樣的調整，表明緊張局勢給全球市場帶來拖累。

Nikko Asset Management, which has More than $160 billion under management, described its sudden decision--taken at an ad-hoc meeting on Monday--as 'extremely rare.' It was based on rising geopolitical risk surrounding Ukraine, slowing economic growth in China, and 'elevated' U.S. equity valuations. It plans to make a final decision on its investment stance on March 27.

日興資產管理旗下管理超過1,600億美元的資產。該公司在週一舉行的一個特別會議上宣佈了上述令人意外的決定。該公司表示，做出這樣的決定是“非常罕見的”。該決定是基於以下幾個因素做出的：圍繞烏克蘭的地緣政治風險上升；中國經濟增速放緩；美國股市的估值處於高位。該公司計劃在3月27日就其投資立場做最後決定。

In what may be the tip of the iceberg, China saw the first default in its fledging corporate bond market last Friday. Chinese residential property prices and the risk of so-called 'shadow banking' defaults are another risk cited by Nikko AM. China's average new-home price in 70 capital cities slowed in January, in the strongest sign yet of a cooldown in the country's property sector. That followed indications from China's banks and developers that lenders are treating the sector with increasing caution amid worries about possible bad loans.

上週五，中國尚處於發展初期的公司債市場出現首個違約案例，這可能只是冰山的一角。日興資產管理認爲，中國住宅地產價格以及“銀子銀行”的違約風險是全球股市面臨的另外一個風險。中國1月份70個大中城市住宅平均價格漲幅放緩，這是目前表明中國房地產行業正在降溫的一個最爲有力的跡象。此前來自中國的銀行以及開發商的跡象顯示，出於對出現壞賬可能性的擔憂，銀行正在愈發謹慎地對待房地產行業。

Over the weekend, China's February inflation and international trade data undershot expectations. Nikko AM isn't predicting a hard landing, but it does expect China's economic growth to 'moderately disappoint.'

上週末公佈的數據顯示，中國2月份通過膨脹數據和國際貿易貿易數據均不及預期。日興資產管理表示，公司預計中國經濟不會出現硬着陸，但預計經濟增速會較爲令人失望。

Meanwhile, a strong rise in U.S. equity prices over the past year is another concern for the fund manager, particularly in light of high valuations and the prospect that earnings growth will be hampered by recent bad weather.

與此同時，美國股市在過去一年強勁上漲是日興資產管理擔心的另外一個問題，尤其是考慮到估值高企、公司業績增長將受到近期糟糕天氣影響的情況下。

The big swing factor, though, is Ukraine. Nikko AM sees a stalemate as the most likely outcome, given Europe's need for energy supplies from Russia.

然而一個很大的不確定因素是烏克蘭。日興資產管理認爲，由於歐洲需要來自俄羅斯的能源供應，因此最可能的結果是出現僵局。

'There is always the chance, however, that the local populations begin to fight with each other, which would escalate geopolitical tensions greatly,' the fund manager warns.

然而該公司警告稱，當地民衆可能會開始互相鬥爭，這種可能性總是存在的，這樣會大大加劇地緣政治的緊張局勢。

Nikko AM's sell down likely included selling the world's biggest mining company, BHP Billiton, which dived 4.1% on Monday. The world's second- and fourth-biggest iron-ore miners, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals also tumbled 5.8% and 9.4%, respectively. Perhaps a bigger alarm bell for risk trades, though, was the spot-iron ore price tumble on Monday--down 8.3% to a 17-month low of US$104.70.

日興資產管理的拋售對象可能會包括全球最大的採礦公司必和必拓(BHP Billiton)，後者股價週一跌4.1%。全球第二大和第四大鐵礦石開採公司力拓(Rio Tinto)和Fortescue Metals也分別跌5.8%和9.4%。然而對於風險交易來說,更大的一個警訊是現貨鐵礦石價格週一大跌8.3%，至104.70美元，爲17個月低點。