中資銀行融資熱背後 中行發行優先股

In a communist society, all citizens are created equal. Until this week, so were all shareholders. But on Thursday, bank of China sold China’s first preference shares – hybrid securities that convert to common equity if capital ratios fall too far. The Rmb40bn ($6.5bn) issue priced at a 6.75 per cent yield, in the middle of the expected range. Still, the pricing was attractive enough for demand to be reportedly three times the deal size.

社會主義社會人人平等。直至本週以前，股東也是人人平等。然而，就在週四，中國銀行(Bank of China)成爲第一家發行優先股的中國上市公司。優先股是一種混合型證券，在銀行資本充足率跌得太厲害時會轉變爲普通股。中行這次發行的優先股規模爲400億元人民幣（合65億美元），收益率爲6.75%，落在了此前人們預期範圍的中間。不過，這一定價依然有很大的吸引力。據報道，對這批優先股的需求達到了發行規模的三倍。

The yield looks generous compared with the available alternatives. Up until last week, when Chinese property developer Agile ran into trouble, that sector’s listed bonds were offered at similar levels. Bank of China’s own common shares yield 7 per cent.

與其它類似的投資產品相比，這一收益率看上去相當慷慨。上週，中國房地產開發商雅居樂(Agile)遇到麻煩時，地產板塊上市債券的收益率也接近這一水平。此外，中行自己的普通股收益率也只有7%而已。

By these measures, the yield is too high. But this is only the first of such deals from the Chinese banks. Preference share approvals suggest $50bn yet to come. With common equity issuance below book value unpalatable, the sector has limited options for improving tier one capital adequacy ratios.

以這些標準衡量，這一收益率太高了。不過，這只是中資銀行發行優先股的第一宗。從各行獲批情況看，還有500億美元的優先股將會上市發行。如果發行低於賬面價值的普通股，對於提高一級資本充足率毫無用處，所以銀行業可供選擇的手段其實十分有限。

Some might question the need for improvement. The ratios of the big four currently range from 8.6 to 11.3 per cent – against a regulatory target of 9.5 per cent by late 2018. Bernstein estimates that Bank of China’s tier 1 ratio has been boosted 40 to 50 basis points from 10.3 per cent by the preference sale. The bank also has approval to issue a further $9.8bn.

部分人可能會質疑提高一級資本充足率的必要性。中國四大銀行的一級資本充足率目前在8.6%到11.3%的範圍之間，而監管目標則是到2018年底以前將一級資本充足率控制在9.5%以上。據伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)估計，通過這次發行優先股，中行的一級資本充足率已從10.3%提升了40到50個基點。除此以外，該行已獲批再發行98億美元的優先股。

So bears suggest that the search for new capital reflects concern about a blow-up in non-performing loans. Current reported NPL levels are 1 per cent. Similar suspicions surround the adequacy – or accuracy – of banks’ measurement of risk-weighted assets.

悲觀者於是得出結論：中資銀行急於尋找新的資金，其實反映出它們對不良貸款規模增大的擔心。據報道，中國銀行業的不良貸款率爲1%。人們對中資銀行對風險加權資產的評估是否合適（或是否準確），也有疑慮。

All these factors – real or imagined – are likely to have played a part in the need to raise capital at a juicy yield. The big risk is that the capital adequacy ratio falls below 5.125 per cent, and the preference shares convert to equity. But as a Chinese state-owned entity, that chance seems remote. Some are more equal than others.

以上所有因素——不論是真實的還是想象中的，可能都在一定程度上增大了中行以較高收益率籌集資金的必要性。對這次優先股發行的投資者而言，一大風險是，當中行資本充足率跌至5.125%以下時，這些優先股將轉爲普通股。不過，作爲中國國有機構，出現這種狀況的可能性極小。畢竟，有些人總是比其他人更“平等”一些。