寬鬆貨幣難以維持中國經濟奇蹟

In Most countries the stock market and the economy move up and down together in a happy union, but in China they have often been distant relatives. That split is widening like never before, with the economy continuing to slow but the stock market taking off, all of which hints at deep dysfunction in the financial system.

在大多數國家，股市和經濟是同漲同跌的天作之合，但在中國，它們往往是相距遙遠的親戚。如今這種背離達到了前所未有的程度——經濟增長持續放緩，但股市卻在高歌猛進，所有這些表明中國金融體系出現了嚴重失靈。

Just three months ago the main Chinese stock market was dormant. Since then it has surged 30 per cent and has started to show signs of the manic trading that normally does not appear until a bull market has been gathering steam for years. On some days this month, the trading volumes on the stock exchanges in China have exceeded those of all the others in the world combined. Prices are swinging wildly, with some of them gaining 10 per cent then losing it all and more within minutes — often in the absence of any news about the company or the economy. Showing classic symptoms of a mania, Chinese investors are borrowing heavily to buy stocks and flipping them quickly. On average, they are holding them for barely two weeks, compared with four months in the US.

僅僅在3個月前，中國主要股市還處於蟄伏狀態，但自那以後大幅飆升30%，並開始呈現出瘋狂交易的跡象，而這種跡象通常在多年牛市蓄勢以後纔會出現。本月有那麼幾天，中國股市成交量超過世界其他國家股市全部成交量的總和。價格劇烈波動，有些股票在短短几分鐘裏先是上漲10%，隨後又回吐全部漲幅，甚至還轉爲下跌——而且通常是在沒有關於該公司或中國經濟的任何消息的情況下。中國投資者正大舉借債購買股票並迅速賣出，顯示出典型的狂熱症狀。平均而言，他們持股只有短短的兩週時間，而美國投資者的平均持股時間是4個月。

This is just the latest frenzy to hit China and its origins date back to 2008. After the global financial crisis hit, Beijing tried to sustain its growth rate by pouring record amounts of money into the economy. Since late 2008, China’s money supply has expanded from $7tn to $20tn, an increase larger than those seen in all other nations put together. There is now more money circulating in the country than in the far larger economy of the US. Yet all this easy money is, on one hand, failing to prevent the economic slowdown while, on the other, fuelling the stock market and widening the disconnect between the two.

這只是中國股市出現的最新狂熱跡象，最初的狂熱可以追溯至2008年。在全球金融危機爆發之後，中國試圖通過向經濟注入創紀錄的資金來維持其增長率。自2008年末以來，中國貨幣供應量從7萬億美元擴大至20萬億美元，增量比其他所有國家新增貨幣的總和還要多。現在中國流通中的貨幣甚至多於經濟規模遠比它大的美國。然而，一方面，所有這些寬鬆貨幣未能阻止經濟下滑，同時另一方面，它刺激了股市上漲，並讓兩者更加脫節。

If China continues to feed these frenzies through its monetary policy, the risk will grow that popping asset bubbles will further slow the economy that has been the single largest contributor to global growth this decade. And, if China’s flagging growth rate slowed by another 2 per cent, that would be enough to slow global growth from the current pace of 2.5 per cent to less than 2 per cent, the level widely considered a worldwide recession.

如果中國繼續通過其貨幣政策助長這些狂熱，不斷吹大的資產泡沫將很有可能讓經濟進一步放緩——中國經濟增長一直是這十年全球增長的單一最大貢獻者。此外，如果中國本已逐漸下降的增長率再降低2個百分點，將足以讓全球經濟增速從當前的2.5%降至2%以下——人們普遍認爲，2%以下表明全球陷入了衰退。

The increase in China’s money supply has already sparked a five-year credit binge, the biggest that any big emerging economy has experienced since the end of the second world war. The first asset class to inflate was property, with land prices rising 500 per cent in the decade to 2012. Then, when the authorities moved to cool property prices by limiting purchase of second homes, funds started flowing into complicated investment products offered by a motley assortment of non-bank institutions that make up China’s extensive and informal “shadow banking” sector. At one point, the money started to boost business in the casinos of Macau — until a crackdown ended that flow, too.

中國貨幣供應增加已經引發了5年的信貸狂歡，這是自二戰結束以來所有大型新興經濟體經歷的最大規模的信貸狂歡。第一個飆升的資產類別是房地產——在截至2012年的十年裏土地價格上漲了500%。隨後當有關當局開始通過限制二套房購買來給房價降溫的時候，資金開始流入形形色色的非銀行機構提供的複雜投資產品——這些非銀行機構組成了中國龐大而非正式的“影子銀行業”。中國的資金還一度推動了澳門賭場的業務，直至反腐運動把這股資金流也截斷了。

By this point the authorities appeared to be playing that old arcade game, Whac-a-Mole. Every time they tried to flatten one emerging asset bubble, another would pop up somewhere else, suggesting that authorities were losing control of the game.

到這時，中國當局似乎在玩那個古老的街機遊戲——打地鼠。每次他們試圖抹平新出現的資產泡沫時，另一個泡沫就在其他地方出現，這表明中國當局喪失了對遊戲的控制。

Only a few months ago, the government was trying to encourage the stock market rally on the basis that this would help the slumping economy. The state media agency, Xinhua, was running stories about how stocks were a good buy. After trading reached frenzied highs, however, Xinhua changed course. Last week it started publishing editorials about how the stock market cannot rely on leverage to create miracles.

就在幾個月前，中國政府還試圖鼓勵股市上漲，認爲這將有利於提振低迷的經濟。中國官方媒體新華社刊文指出股市如何是很好的投資對象。然而，在股市交易達到瘋狂的高點後，新華社改變了立場。上週，它開始發表社論，指出股市不可能依靠槓桿創造奇蹟。

This is true — but the state cannot continue relying on easy money to keep an economic miracle alive either. The officially reported growth rate of 7 per cent looks increasingly implausible when checked against a variety of data — both official and independent — from different sectors of the economy. Car sales and electricity consumption are growing at less than half that rate, steel production and oil demand are growing at nearly zero per cent, while property sales are on track to fall 10 per cent this year.

這話說得沒錯，但政府也不能持續依賴寬鬆貨幣保持經濟奇蹟。將官方公佈的7%經濟增速與一系列不同經濟部門發佈的數據（無論是官方還是獨立數據）相覈對，就會發現前者日益不可信。汽車銷售和電力消費增長不足3.5%，鋼鐵生產和石油需求幾乎是零增長，同時今年的房地產銷售有可能下降10%。

With the easy money increasingly going to fuel asset bubbles rather than to promote economic growth, China needs to abandon its unsustainable growth target. The world cannot afford a financial accident in China at a time when the global economy is already on the edge.

隨着寬鬆貨幣日益引發資產泡沫而不是促進經濟增長，中國有必要拋棄其不可持續的增長目標。在全球經濟已經岌岌可危之際，世界承受不起中國發生金融意外。