關注社會:難以解讀的節後中國經濟
China's manufacturing sector had a strong January, at least according to an official survey that required extensive statistical adjustments due to last week's New Year holiday. Independent economists who conducted their own data adjustments found signs of surprising weakness.
中國製造業在1月份表現強勁——至少這是官方調查所展現的景象。由於上週的春節黃金週，該項調查需要進行大量的統計調整。同時，自主進行數據調整的一些獨立經濟學家表示，他們發現了出乎意料的疲軟跡象。
Amid the confusion, all could agree on one point: trying to get a clear read on the Chinese economy at the start of the year, when much of the country shuts down for a couple of weeks, is fiendishly difficult.
在一團迷茫中，各方應該會同意一點：要在年初清晰地判讀中國經濟是極其困難的，因爲全國相當大部分產業要停工兩週過年。
This has always been the case but is particularly vexing this year. The economy may be at a turning point, requiring much more policy support to keep growth on track. Yet it could be weeks, even months, before the full extent of any slowdown becomes clear.
這個問題一直存在，但今年尤其令人頭疼。中國經濟也許正處於一個轉折點，需要多得多的政策支持才能保持增長。可是，經濟放緩的全貌可能需要數週乃至數月時間才能清晰展現。
"It is not an ideal situation,' said Wang Tao, an economist with UBS. "It affects the government as well. They ask for advice from their think-tanks and they are looking at the same set of data and may not be considering so much some of these technical, seasonal issues."
“這種局面不理想，”瑞銀(UBS)經濟學家汪濤表示。“這也影響到政府。他們向他們的智庫徵求建議，大家在研究同一組數據，也許不會過多考慮某些技術性、季節性的因素。”
China's official purchasing managers' index, an important gauge of factory activity, rose to 50.5 in January, up from 50.3 a month earlier. In remaining above 50, the PMI pointed to an expansion in industrial output that confounded forecasts for a decline.
衡量工業活動的重要指標——中國的官方採購經理指數(PMI)在1月份升至50.5，高於前一個月的50.3。這個PMI數據仍高於50，說明工業產出仍在擴張，有關下降的預測不準確。
The subindexes that comprise the PMI showed a sharp drop in export orders but a general increase in new orders — an indication that domestic strength was more than cushioning the impact of Europe's debt travails.
構成PMI指數的幾個分類指數顯示，出口訂單大幅下降，但新訂單總體上升，說明國內經濟的強勁程度足以抵消歐債危機的衝擊。
However, Ms Wang said that her team's adjustment of the data produced the opposite result: exports were unexpectedly robust, while domestic demand was the weak link.
但汪濤表示，她的團隊在對相關數據進行調整後，得出相反的結果：出口意外強勁，而國內需求才是薄弱環節。
A separate PMI, which is sponsored by HSBC, told a similar story. The headline index was sluggish at 48.8, signalling a mild deterioration in manufacturing conditions, but export orders rose.
匯豐(HSBC)支持的另一項PMI調查展現出類似的情況。整體指數不振，爲48.8，顯示製造業狀況小幅惡化，但出口訂單上升。
The quality of Chinese economic data has long come under suspicion, with critics alleging that it is manipulated by the government trying to cast a positive gloss on its achievements. Li Keqiang, who is widely expected to be China's next premier, said that GDP figures were "man-made" and "for reference only".
中國經濟數據的質量長期受到懷疑，批評人士稱，這些數據受到政府操縱，因爲政府試圖給自己的政績抹金。普遍預期將出任中國下屆總理的李克強曾表示，中國的國內生產總值(GDP)數據是人造的，僅供參考。
But analysts say the real problem is less manipulation and more the sheer challenge of measuring a continent-sized economy that is growing — and changing — so quickly.
但分析師們表示，真正的問題與其說是操縱，不如說是測算一個幅員遼闊、正在快速增長（和變化）的經濟體所涉及的艱鉅挑戰。
This challenge is particularly acute at the start of the year when businesses close and tens of millions of workers head home for the Chinese New Year. Depending on whether the week-long holiday falls in January or February, it can have a major impact on data: lavish banquets lead to a jump in food inflation that soon subsides and factory closures cause a sharp but temporary drop in industrial output.
這種挑戰在年初尤其突出，每年這個時候，大批企業關門停產，數以千萬計的農民工回家過年。春節假期是落在1月還是2月，可能對數據產生重大影響：節日宴請導致食品通脹躍升，但不久就會回落，同時工廠停產導致工業產出呈現急劇但短暫的下降。
Because there were so few work days in January, statisticians had to extrapolate to produce figures for the full month, but economists suspect that they may have overestimated industrial activity in the process.
由於1月份工作日這麼少，因此統計人員不得不推算得出全月的數據，但經濟學家們懷疑，在此過程中他們可能過高估算了工業活動。
"Without sufficient seasonal adjustment, PMI this January would have been downwardly distorted. However, it is also likely that seasonal adjustment was overdone," said Ting Lu, an economist with bank of America Merrill Lynch. "Take all monthly January and February data with a grain of salt."
“若沒有充足的季節調整，今年1月的PMI數據將會偏低。不過，季節調整也有可能過頭，”美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)經濟學家陸挺表示。“要用懷疑的眼光看待所有1月和2月的月度數據。”
Yet waiting until March would be a feat of patience for investors looking to allocate funds. Putting policy on pause would also be a risk for the government. A range of partial indicators, from housing starts to freight volumes at ports, all point to a marked slowdown from China's 9.2 per cent growth last year.
可是，對急於配置資金的投資者來說，等待3月份公佈的數據是需要極大耐心的。暫停調整政策對政府也是一個風險。從住房開工數據到港口的貨運量，一系列局部指標均顯示，中國經濟增長較去年的9.2%有顯著放緩。
Many analysts had expected that the central bank would cut required reserves in January — a favoured tool in China for pumping cash into the financial system and propping up the economy. But it held its fire and instead adopted more cautious tactics, relying on open-market operations to inject liquidity.
許多分析師此前預期，中國央行將在1月降低銀行存款準備金率——這是中國愛用的一種工具，目的是向金融體系釋放現金，支持經濟。但中國央行並未使出這一招，而是採用了更爲審慎的戰術，依靠公開市場操作來注入流動性。
Some domestic companies, especially property developers, have warned that the economy could suffer if the government does not shift soon to a more stimulative stance.
一些國內企業（尤其是房產開發商）警告稱，如果政府不很快轉向一種更加保增長的姿態，經濟將會出問題。
Premier Wen Jiabao sought to counter those fears this week, saying that policy can change course quickly if necessary.
中國總理溫家寶本週尋求迴應這些擔憂，他表示，如有必要，政策可以很快轉向。
"We must sharply observe and accurately judge the momentum of the domestic economy, paying utmost attention to the first signs of problems," he said at a cabinet meeting.
“要敏銳觀察和準確判斷國內外經濟走勢，高度重視苗頭性、傾向性問題，”溫家寶在國務院會議上表示。
譯者:和風
