亞洲降息潮還將持續多久
Asian central bank watchers are having a tough time deciding where to look.
Yesterday, South Korea became the latest to surprise the market with a rate cut, following in the footsteps of Thailand, China and India — all of which have loosened policy unexpectedly in the past two weeks alone. Indonesia’s February Move to lower borrowing costs is also still fresh in the mind.
昨天，韓國成爲繼泰國、中國和印度之後，最新一個宣佈降息令市場震動的國家。在過去短短兩週內，上述三國都出人意料地推出了寬鬆政策。而此前印尼於2月份的降息仍歷歷在目。There are some common threads that help explain Asia’s easing path — such as falling inflation, stuttering growth and fluctuations in global currency markets. But country-specific issues are also playing their part.
一些常見原因能夠解釋亞洲的寬鬆政策路線——包括通脹率下跌、增長遇阻以及全球貨幣市場的波動。不過，各國也面臨各自的具體問題。
“There are some concerns about growth and exchange rate competitiveness”, said Krystal Tan at Capital Economics. “Now that inflation is low, it’s given policy makers an opportunity to act.”
凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的Krystal Tan表示：“存在着一些對增長和匯率競爭力的擔憂。既然通脹現在這麼低，政策制定者就有了行動的機會。”For South Korea, the tumbling yen has prompted questions about export costs, while domestic growth has been disappointing. This week’s cut takes benchmark rates down to 1.75 per cent, a record low for Asia’s fourth-largest economy.
對韓國來說，在國內增長令人失望之際，日元暴跌引發了有關韓國出口成本的問題。本週韓國將基準利率降至1.75%，對這個亞洲第四大經濟體來說，這是個創紀錄的低點。Thailand, too, is worried about growth, with exports and private consumption both weaker than expected at the start of the year. That the baht has held up better than some other Asian currencies against the rising dollar may also have played into the central bank’s thinking.
由於年初出口和私人消費雙雙低於預期，泰國也同樣擔心增長的問題。相對於不斷走強的美元，泰銖的表現比部分其他亞洲貨幣要堅挺一些，這可能也是泰國央行考慮的因素之一。For India, falling inflation has presented an opportunity to give the economy a helping hand, as the Modi-led government looks to get the country back on track as quickly as possible.
對印度來說，在莫迪(Modi)領導的政府尋求令該國儘快重返正軌之際，不斷下跌的通脹爲刺激經濟創造了機遇。In contrast, Chinese policy makers have been growing nervous about the prospect of outright deflation, with a contraction in producer prices now entering its third year. Growth is stalling, the housing market is still in a funk and the renminbi, on a trade-weighted basis at least, is at a record high. Looser policy may also be designed to balance tighter liquidity caused by accelerating capital outflows.
相比之下，中國政策制定者則是出於對全面通縮前景的日益擔憂——中國生產者價格已開啓了第三個下滑之年。增長陷入停滯，樓市仍然低迷，人民幣匯率則處於前所未有的高點——至少從貿易加權的角度來說是如此。除上述因素以外，更寬鬆的政策也可能意在平衡資金外流加速導致的流動性緊張。Economists expect more cuts from some countries — most likely India and China — while others are tipped to stay put.
經濟學家預計，部分國家（最有可能的是印度和中國）將採取更多降息舉措，而其他國家則應該會維持原狀。The Philippines, where growth has remained strong, will have one eye on its high rate of credit growth, while recent currency weakness in oil-exporting Malaysia makes lower rates a less attractive option, even as the economy slows.
增長保持強勁的菲律賓將會密切關注其信貸的高速增長。對於石油出口國馬來西亞來說，即便經濟放緩，該國貨幣近期的疲軟也降低了降息的吸引力。With rates now at record lows and household debt levels already high in both South Korea and Thailand, further moves are not expected there either.
至於韓國和泰國，由於利率已經處於創紀錄低點，居民債務水平也已經很高，預計這兩國也不會進一步降息。“Unless recession risk escalates, we don’t see a clear path for another rate cut,” said Citibank economists following the Bank of Thailand’s move this week.
在泰國央行(Bank of Thailand)本週降息之後，花旗銀行(Citibank)經濟學家曾表示：“除非衰退風險加劇，否則我們看不到（泰國）進一步降息的明確信號。”Policy makers across the region will also be mindful of what happened in the spring of 2013, when Ben Bernanke, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve, first used the word “tapering”. This signal that quantitative easing had peaked prompted rapid capital flight from emerging markets, with India and Indonesia both forced into emergency rates rises to steady their currencies.
亞洲政策制定者還將銘記2013年春季發生的事。當時，時任美聯儲(Fed)主席的本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)首次使用了“逐步縮減QE規模”(tapering)一詞。這一量化寬鬆見頂的信號曾導致資本迅速逃離新興市場，印度和印尼兩國都曾被迫因此緊急提升利率，以穩定本國貨幣的匯率。
