亞洲經濟發展保持強勁

Developing Asian economies will continue to grow strongly this year but will face the risk of surging prices, says the Asian Development bank’s annual economic outlook released Wednesday. The bank lauded China’s recent interest rate hike as an appropriate move to tackle inflation.

亞洲開發銀行星期三公佈的年度經濟展望報告說，亞洲發展中國家的經濟今年持續保持強勁，但面臨物價飛漲的風險。該銀行讚揚中國最近人民幣升值的舉措是應對通貨膨脹的恰當對策。

Rhee Changyong, chief economist of the ADB, says economic growth among developing nations in Asia will average 8 percent both this year and next.

亞洲開發銀行首席經濟師李昌鏞說，亞洲發展中國家的經濟增長今年和明年都將平均增長8%左右。

However, economic activity could slow if governments fail to adequately tackle surging food and commodity prices. Pakistan is expected to suffer the highest rate of inflation this year at 16 percent, followed by Vietnam at 13.3 percent.

然而，如果各國政府不能出臺應對飆漲的食品和其它商品價格的經濟對策，經濟就會放緩。巴基斯坦預計會面臨最嚴重的通貨膨脹，通脹率高達16%。其次是越南，通貨膨脹率也將達到13.3%。

Rhee says with developing Asia home to two-thirds of the world’s poor, governments need to make inflation a top priority.

李昌鏞說，由於世界貧窮人口的三分之二生活在亞洲發展中國家，亞洲各國政府需要將控制通貨膨脹做爲當務之急。

On Tuesday, China raised interest rates for the fourth time since October to help curb rising prices. Rhee said China is moving in the right direction.

星期二，中國從去年10月以來第四次提高了人民幣的利率，以幫助控制物價上漲。李昌鏞說，中國這一政策的方向是正確的。

"Still I believe there is room to tighten monetary policy a little bit more because their policy rate [interest rate] compared with inflation rate is still at a modest level," Rhee said.

他說：“我仍認爲貨幣緊縮政策還有一些空間，因爲比起通貨膨脹率來說，他們的貨幣利率政策還處於一個比較保守的水平。”

India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and South Korea have also raised interest rates in recent months.

印度、印度尼西亞、菲律賓、泰國、韓國也在最近幾個月提升了本國的利率。

Rhee said the economic impact of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami on the Japanese economy will be large in the next two quarters, but will moderate in the long run as reconstruction spending kicks in.

李昌鏞說，3月11號的地震和海嘯給日本的經濟造成的衝擊將於未來兩個季度顯現出更加嚴重的局面，但從長遠來看， 重建的支出可以緩解經濟的壓力。The earthquake forced some Japanese companies to halt production, disrupting the supply of key materials to other Asian countries. Some international banks have also shifted staff from Tokyo to other financial centers such as Hong Kong and Singapore because of fears of radiation from the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant.

地震和海嘯迫使日本一些公司停止了生產，影響了向亞洲其它國家提供關鍵材料的出口。一些國際銀行也從東京向香港和新加坡等金融中心轉移自己的員工，因爲擔心受損的福島核電站造成的核輻射帶來的威脅。

"Under the assumption that there will be no further deterioration of the nuclear situation, we believe the impact of the Japanese earthquake on other Asian regions will be contained and not very big," Rhee said.

李昌鏞說：“如果日本核電站事故不再進一步惡化，我們認爲，日本這次地震災害對亞洲其它地區的衝擊將是有限的、不會過大。”

The non-profit lender also said the region needs to develop new sources of growth for the future, such as enhancing trade and investment with other economies in the southern hemisphere. The report finds considerable potential to broaden links between Asia and fast growing emerging economies in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East if policy makers remove barriers to trade and investment.

亞洲開發銀行還說，亞洲需要發掘未來發展的新領域，例如加強和南半球經濟體的貿易和投資活動。這份報告還說，如果政策制訂者取消貿易和投資的壁壘，那麼就有相當大的可能來拓寬亞洲和發展迅速的拉美、非洲以及中東等新興經濟體之間的聯繫。

The bank says Southeast Asia’s economic expansion will slow this year to 5.5 percent from 7.8 percent last year. Indonesia will be the fastest growing economy in the region, at 6.4 percent.

亞洲開發銀行說，東南亞各國的經濟今年將有所放緩，從去年的7.8%下降到今年的5.5%。印度尼西亞將成爲該地區發展最快的國家，增長速度爲6.4%。

In South Asia, India is expected to continue to expand strongly at 8.2 percent but faces risks from inflation, a drop in private investment and structural constraints such as poor agricultural productivity.

在南亞，印度預計將持續強勁發展，以8.2%的速度提升，但印度面臨的威脅包括：通貨膨脹、私營投資的下降和農業生產力低下等結構性制約因素。

The bank says the resource-rich Central Asian region has been benefiting from high prices for oil and gas, metals, cotton and gold. The region’s growth is forecast to rise by 6.7 percent this year, up from 6.6 percent last year.

亞行表示，資源豐富的中亞地區一直受益於高價的石油、天然氣、金屬、棉花以及黃金。這一地區的發展的預測今年是6.7%，高於去年的6.6%。