4.3% December fall in prices of new homes in big Chinese cities 9% Month-on-month rise in Chinese housing sales in December Prices of new homes in big Chinese cities fell 4.3 per cent in December from a year earlier, the largest drop since the current data series began in 2011, according to Financial Times calculations based on government figures released yesterday. The continuing downturn in the Chinese real estate market, which began at the start of last year, is creating ructions in Beijing and globally, as slower growth and rising debts in China ripple through international commodity markets. Property and related sectors account for nearly a quarter of China’s economy and analysts expect the downturn to continue this year, especially since bloated inventories grew throughout last year. “We expect the property downturn to continue in 2015 with greater downside risk to our current forecast,” said Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS. More positively, and in what some developers hope is the start of a turnround, December saw a rebound in housing sales volumes. Moreover, housing prices across China’s largest cities declined by a smaller margin month-on-month than they did in November or September. Beijing cut interest rates in November for the first time in two years and that, combined with looser government regulatory policy, pushed housing sales to their highest level in December, up 9 per cent from a month earlier. Ai Jingwei, a property market expert and author of Great Recession in China’s Property Market, said: “Despite some positive short-term signals, the current property downturn is far from over. “Given the huge inventory overhang, unfavourable demographic trends and the potential for local debt crises I expect the slump will last at least until the end of 2017 and possibly longer, even if we see some small temporary rebounds.” Much of China’s property construction has been funded by credit and there are concerns the slowdown could trigger localised debt crises. Cash-strapped local governments rely on land sales to fund basic services and most have taken on huge debt loads using land and real estate projects as collateral. “Local government finance vehicles” set up by governments across China are supposed to repay Rmb1.4tn in debt maturing this year, according to China Cheng Xin International Credit Rating, which is partly owned by Moody’s, the credit rating agency. Those same local finance vehicles borrowed Rmb1.6tn last year, up from about Rmb900bn each year in 2012 and 2013. China is set to publish its 2014 gross domestic product growth figures tomorrow, with the economy expected to have expanded at its slowest annual rate since 1990. 英國《金融時報》根據中國政府昨日發佈的數據進行的計算顯示，中國去年12月大城市新房價格同比下降4.3%，這是當前數據系列從2011年開始以來的最大跌幅。 始於去年初的中國房地產市場持續低迷，正在北京乃至全球製造不安，中國增長放緩而債務上升所引發的衝擊波震盪國際大宗商品市場。 房地產及相關行業佔中國經濟近四分之一，分析師們預計，此輪低迷將在今年繼續，尤其是因爲去年全年期間存量不斷膨脹。 “我們預計房地產低迷將在2015年持續，我們目前的預測面臨的下行風險更大，”瑞銀(UBS)首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示。 比較好的消息是，12月住房銷售出現反彈，一些開發商希望這是局面扭轉的開端。此外，12月中國大城市樓價的月度環比降幅小於11月和9月。 去年11月，中國央行兩年來首次降息，而政府調控政策有所放鬆。這些舉措推動住房銷售在12月達到最高水平，環比增長9%。 房地產市場專家、《房市大衰退》作者艾經緯表示：“儘管有一些積極的短期信號，但當前的房地產低迷還遠未結束。 “鑑於巨大的過剩存量、不利的人口結構發展趨勢以及爆發地方債務危機的可能性，我預計此輪低迷將至少持續到2017年末，甚至更久，即便我們看到一些小幅短暫反彈。” 中國房地產建設的很大一部分資金來自信貸，目前有人擔憂，樓市放緩可能觸發局部的債務危機。 資金緊張的中國地方政府靠賣地收入來維持基本服務，大多數地方政府以土地和房地產項目爲抵押，背上了巨大的債務負擔。 信用評級機構穆迪(Moody’s)部分持股的中誠信國際信用評級公司(CCXI)稱，中國各地政府成立的“地方政府融資工具”今年理應償還1.4萬億元人民幣的到期債務。 這些“融資工具”去年借入1.6萬億元人民幣，高於2012年和2013年的每年9000億元人民幣。 中國將在明日發佈2014年國內生產總值(GDP)增長數據，預計中國經濟將出現自1990年以來最慢的年度增速。
