美聯儲若下週加息將打擊新興市場

The US Federal Reserve risks triggering “panic and turMoil” in emerging markets if it opts to raise rates at its September meeting and should hold fire until the global economy is on a surer footing, the World bank’s chief economist has warned.

世界銀行(World Bank)首席經濟學家警告，美聯儲(Federal Reserve)如果決定在9月會議上加息，就有可能觸發新興市場“恐慌和動盪”；在全球經濟進一步站穩腳跟之前，美聯儲應該暫緩動手。

Rising uncertainty over growth in China and its impact on the global economy meant that a Fed decision to raise its policy rate next week, for the first time since 2006, would have negative consequences, Kaushik Basu told the Financial Times.

考希克巴蘇(Kaushik Basu)對英國《金融時報》表示，圍繞中國經濟增長的越來越大的不確定性及其對全球經濟的影響意味着，美聯儲如果下週決定提高政策利率（這將是2006年以來首次），會產生消極後果。

His warning highlights the mounting concern outside the US over the Fed’s potential “lift-off”. It follows similar advice from the International Monetary Fund where anxieties have also grown in recent weeks about the potential repercussions of a September rate hike.

他的警告突顯出，在美國以外，人們日益擔憂美聯儲可能很快開始加息。此前國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)也提出類似的建議，近幾周來，該組織對於9月加息的潛在衝擊波也越來越感到焦慮。

That means that if the Fed’s policymakers were to decide next week to raise rates, they would be doing so against the advice of both of the institutions created at Bretton Woods as guardians of global economic stability.

這意味着，如果美聯儲的政策制定者下週決定加息，他們將不理睬兩家在佈雷頓森林創建、旨在扮演全球經濟穩定監護人角色的機構的意見。

Such a decision could yield a “shock” and a new crisis in emerging markets, Mr Basu said, especially as it would come on the back of worries over the health of the Chinese economy.

巴蘇表示，這樣的決定可能產生一股“衝擊”，在新興市場引發新的危機，尤其是在各方已經擔憂中國經濟健康狀況的情況下。

He said that, even though it had been well advertised by the Fed, any rise would lead to “fear capital” leaving emerging economies as well as to sharp swings in their currencies. The likely strengthening in the dollar would also hamper US growth, he said.

他表示，儘管美聯儲已經做了大量預告工作，但任何加息都將導致“恐懼資本”流出新興市場，新興市場貨幣匯率也將劇烈波動。他說，美元很可能走高，而這也將阻礙美國經濟增長。

“I don’t think the Fed lift-off itself is going to create a major crisis but it will cause some immediate turbulence,” Mr Basu said. “It is the compounding effect of the last two weeks of bad news with that [China devaluation] the middle of this it is going to cause some panic and turmoil. The world economy is looking so troubled that if the US goes in for a very quick move in the middle of this I feel it is going to affect countries quite badly.”

“我不認爲美聯儲開始加息本身會帶來重大危機，但它會引起一些直接的動盪，”巴蘇表示。“這是過去兩週的壞消息與（中國人民幣貶值）的疊加效應……在這個節骨眼上加息會造成一定的恐慌和動盪。當前世界經濟看上去問題多多，以至於如果美國在這個節骨眼上很快加息，我覺得那將對各國產生很厲害的影響。”

After spending months priming investors for a rate rise this year, the Fed faces an intense debate at its September 16-17 policy meeting over when to lift interest rates and how to balance evidence of a resilient domestic economy against gyrations in global financial markets driven by fears of a China slowdown.

在花了幾個月時間讓投資者準備迎接今年加息後，美聯儲在9月16-17日政策會議期間面臨一場激烈辯論，焦點是何時上調利率，以及如何權衡國內經濟強勁的證據與全球金融市場受中國經濟放緩憂慮驅動的大起大落。

Mixed signals have recently been emerging from the central bank about the prospects of a rise this month. While the labour market is continuing to strengthen, officials are worried that inflation will be weighed down by the higher dollar and recent falls in commodity prices. Janet Yellen, the Fed’s chair, has repeatedly signalled that she expects to lift rates this year for the first time since 2006. She has only three meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee left this year if that expectation is to be fulfilled.

在本月會否加息的問題上，身爲美國央行的美聯儲最近發出雜亂信號。儘管勞動力市場在繼續走強，但官員們擔心通脹將受到美元走高和近期大宗商品價格下跌的拖累。美聯儲主席珍妮特耶倫(Janet Yellen)曾多次暗示，她預期年內進行自2006年以來的首次加息。今年只剩下三次聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議可讓她兌現這個預期。

The impact of China’s slowing economy on the world was highlighted by trade numbers released yesterday that showed exports and imports slowed in August versus the same month last year.

昨日發佈的貿易數據也突顯了中國經濟放緩對世界的影響。數據顯示，8月中國出口和進口同比均有所放緩。

Mr Basu said the World Bank’s June forecast of 2.8 per cent growth for the global economy was now under threat.

巴蘇表示，世行6月預測的全球經濟今年增長2.8%現在看來有點懸。

“There is a concern in emerging economies all around in case China takes a hit,” Mr Basu said. “This is the problem right now in the world... we are going to get into a slower global growth phase. All this put together and what has happened over the past two weeks with the Chinese markets leads one to believe the scenario is looking worse than it did even in June.”

“新興經濟體普遍感到擔憂，生怕中國挺不住，”巴蘇表示。“這是眼下世界面臨的問題……整體而言，我們正進入一個全球經濟以較低速度增長的階段。綜合考慮所有情況，再加上過去兩週中國市場的局面，讓人相信整個形勢甚至比6月看上去還要糟糕。”