美聯儲暗示將不遲於明年年中加息

The US Federal Reserve sent a strong signal that it expects to tighten monetary policy by the middle of 2015 as it dropped its forecast that it would keep low interest rates for a “considerable time”.

美聯儲(Fed)放棄了其會在“相當長時間內”保持低利率不變的預測，從而釋放出預計會不遲於2015年年中收緊貨幣政策的強烈信號。

But the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said it could be “patient” in judging when to start raising rates, in new language designed to reassure markets that rate rises are not imminent.

不過，負責設定利率的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)表示，該委員會將“耐心”判斷何時應該開始加息。這種新的措辭旨在安撫市場情緒，告訴它們利率不會馬上上調。

The S&P 500 climbed 1.8 per cent to 2007.58 points. The dollar was little changed against the euro at $1.2421.

消息傳來，標普500 (S&P 500)指數攀升1.8%，至2007.58點。美元兌歐元匯率幾乎沒有改變，保持在1歐元兌1.2421美元的水平。

The decision to drop “considerable time” despite global market turmoil shows the Fed’s confidence in strong US growth and its desire to prepare financial markets for tighter monetary policy next year. The decision came as Russia unveiled measures to support the rouble, prompting a 12 per cent rebound in the currency.

美聯儲決定不顧全球市場動盪，放棄“相當長時間內”的說法，一方面表明它對美國的強勁增長有信心，另一方面表明它想讓金融市場爲明年貨幣政策收緊做好準備。就在美聯儲做出這一決定之際，俄羅斯出臺了支撐盧布的舉措，促使盧布匯率反彈12%。

But in a carefully weighted statement that had three dissenters the FOMC said the new guidance was consistent with the old. It suggests the central bank is looking at a first rate rise in June 2015.

不過，FOMC在一份經過仔細權衡的聲明（聲明提到該委員會有三人投了反對票）中表示，新的指引與原先的指引是一致的。這說明，美聯儲正考慮在2015年6月開始加息。

The FOMC also forecast a slower pace of rate rises in 2015 and 2016. Instead of expecting interest rates of 1.25-1.5 per cent by the end of 2015, the FOMC now forecasts them to be between 1-1.25 per cent. That suggests four quarter point rate rises next year instead of five. Instead of rates at 2.75-3 per cent by the end of 2016, the Fed now expects rates at 2.5 per cent.

FOMC還預計，會在2015年和2016年以一種較緩慢的節奏上調利率。該委員會放棄了利率會在2015年底達到1.25%至1.5%的預期，相反，它如今預期利率屆時會達到1%至1.25%。這意味着利率明年只會上調1個百分點，而不是1.25個百分點。此外，美聯儲如今預期2016年底利率會達到2.5%，而不是2.75%至3%。

Two of the dissenters on the 10-strong FOMC thought the statement was not tough enough, one thought it too strong. In recent months the US economy has enjoyed its best run of data since the end of the recession in 2009, including jobs growth of 321,000 in November, as consumers respond to sliding oil prices.

在由十人組成的FOMC中，有三人投了反對票，其中兩人認爲這份聲明不夠強硬、一人認爲這份聲明太過強硬。最近幾個月，隨着消費者對不斷下滑的油價作出迴應，美國經濟報出自2009年衰退結束以來表現最好的一組數據。其中，11月份就業人數增加了32.1萬。