美聯儲加息將傷及日本進口商
Dishes which use soyabeans, such as natto, are affected by the rate rise as Japan imports from the US
使用大豆的餐品（例如納豆）將受到美國加息的影響，因爲日本從美國進口大豆
Kinako — a sweet yellow flour used in desserts — is as quintessentially Japanese as food ingredients come, but even this niche product is not immune to economic ripples emanating from the US Federal Reserve.
甜點中使用的黃色的甜甜的粉末“Kinako”，是一種極具日本特色的食品原料，但即便是這種利基產品，也不免要受到美聯儲(Fed)造成的經濟波動的影響。
Yoshio Ogawa, president of 103-year-old Ogawa Industries, makes most of his kinako using soyabeans imported from the US. The dollar exchange rate is crucial to his profitability.
Ogawa Industries是一家有103年曆史的日本企業，它生產的“Kinako”基本上都是用從美國進口的大豆製成的。美元匯率對該公司的利潤率有着至關重要的影響。
With the yen already trading at about Y124 to the dollar, down more than 50 per cent in the two-and-a-half years since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came to power, importers such as Mr Ogawa can ill-afford more yen weakness.
安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)再次出任日本首相至今已有兩年半時間，日元兌美元匯率在這段時間裏下跌了50%以上，目前爲1美元兌124日元左右。像Ogawa這樣的進口商可能難以承受日元進一步走弱。
“If we can pass the price rises on then it is fine but the question is whether consumers keep buying,” he says.
Ogawa的社長Yoshio Ogawa說：“如果我們能把價格上漲轉嫁出去，那倒還好，可問題是消費者是否還會買。”
Inflation in Japan is still running close to zero, so even if the Fed does not tighten policy in September, at some point there will be a sharp divergence between US and Japanese interest rates.
日本通脹率目前仍接近零，因此，即便美聯儲沒有在9月收緊貨幣政策，美國和日本的利率也終有一天會出現巨大分化。
Higher US rates make it relatively more attractive to hold dollars. But while a weaker yen hurts importers such as Mr Ogawa by pushing up the price of foreign foodstuffs and energy, it also swells profits at big exporters such as Toyota.
美國加息讓持有美元變得相對更具吸引力。然而，儘管日元貶值推高了外國食品和能源的價格、令Ogawa這樣的進口商受損，但它也提振了豐田(Toyota)等大型出口商的利潤。
The export boost is a stimulus, encouraging Japan’s manufacturers to raise production and investment at home, although big companies have been slow to accept yen weakness is here to stay.
出口增加是一種刺激，它鼓勵日本製造商擴大國內生產和投資，儘管日本大企業遲遲未認可日元的弱勢將持續下去的觀點。
So far the spur to Japanese growth has not been enough to drive up wages. Companies such as Ogawa Industries are left in a bind, because the prices of their inputs have risen but the incomes of their customers have not.
迄今爲止，給日本增長帶來的提振不足以推升薪資。Ogawa這樣的企業正陷入困境，因爲它們的投入成本上漲了、顧客的收入卻沒漲。
That has changed yen politics.
這改變了日元政治學。
Whereas yen weakness got a warm welcome in the early days of Abenomics in 2013, politicians are now much warier, creating a tricky environment for the Bank of Japan to navigate.
2013年安倍經濟學(Abenomics)實施初期，日元貶值曾受到熱烈歡迎，如今政治人士則變得警惕多了，這爲日本央行(Bank of Japan)駕馭現狀製造了一個棘手的環境。
Mr Ogawa is doing what he can to prepare for a stronger dollar. But he points out that his room for manoeuvre is limited because customers want non-genetically modified soya. That restricts his choice of suppliers.
Yoshio Ogawa正盡其所能爲美元升值做準備。但他指出，他的迴旋餘地有限，因爲顧客們想要非轉基因大豆。這對他選擇供應商造成了限制。
“One choice is to use more domestic beans,” he says, adding that Japanese produce, however, is not cheap.
他說，“一種選擇是更多地使用國內的豆子”，但日本的豆子可不便宜。
