第三季度美聯儲對市場使出驚嚇戰略

A long stretch of unusual calm in the stock market gave way to a succession of violent swings in the third quarter as investors worried that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at last and then were disappointed — after the briefest spurt of euphoria — when the Fed demurred.

在經歷了一段異乎尋常的長期平靜後，美國股市在第三季度出現了劇烈震盪，這是因爲投資者擔心美聯儲終將提高利率，但美聯儲卻沒有這麼做，讓他們在極爲短暫的一波興奮後，又跌入了失望之中。

The net result was the worst quarter in four years, and some strategists predicted further trouble ahead.

結果就導致了四年來表現最糟糕的一個季度，而據一些分析師預測，之後還會有更多麻煩。

“This doesn’t end happily,” said Komal S. Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, an investment consulting firm. “2016 looks like a volatile and pretty difficult year for markets in the United States and around the globe.”

“這種走向不太好，” 投資諮詢公司斯里庫瑪全球策略(Sri-Kumar Global Strategies)的總裁科瑪爾·斯里-庫馬爾(Komal Sri-Kumar)說。“看起來無論是美國還是全球市場，2016年都會是很不穩定、相當不順的一年。”

It was certainly a difficult quarter. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index lost 6.9 percent in the three months through September, closing at 1,920, roughly where the benchmark stood in May of last year.

而上季度無疑是一個很不順的季度。標準普爾500指數在截至9月底的三個月內跌去6.9%，收於1920點，大致相當於去年5月的基準水平。

The decline was part of a broader trend toward shunning the risky assets that had been coveted for six-plus years. High-yield bonds fell, as did many commodities.

這種下跌反映了一個更廣泛層面上的趨勢：人們在迴避已被垂涎了六多年的風險資產。高收益債券下跌，很多大宗商品也是如此。

Treasury prices rose as their yields fell during the quarter, with the return on the benchmark 10-year note dropping to 2.04 percent from 2.35 percent at the end of the previous quarter. Treasuries are often a safe harbor during turbulent market conditions, and with the Fed maintaining its target for short-term rates at zero to 0.25 percent, as it has for nearly a decade, traders saw no reason to expect the outlook for long-term rates to change anytime soon.

上個季度國債價格上漲，其收益率下跌。在上一季度末，十年期基準國債的收益率從2.35%降到2.04%。國債往往是市場動盪時期的安全港，美聯儲的目標是把短期利率維持在零至0.25%之間，近十年來一直保持在這一區間內，交易者認爲，沒有理由預期長期利率的前景會很快改變。

The Fed’s action, or absence of it, on Sept. 17 and accompanying remarks were as benign as investors possibly could have imagined. The central bank, in its statement and in the news conference held by its chairwoman, Janet L. Yellen, highlighted a slightly diminished emphasis on domestic economic growth and inflation and a more pronounced concern about developments abroad.

美聯儲9月17日維持利率的決定以及相應的評論，在投資者看來是極爲良性的。通過其聲明以及珍妮特·L·耶倫(Janet L. Yellen)主席的新聞發佈會，美聯儲略微減少了對國內經濟增長和通貨膨脹的強調，而對海外形勢表示了更多的關切。

If Wall Street seems unwilling to take yes for an answer, investment advisers say, it’s because the Fed’s welcome caution in raising rates is more than offset by the fact that the Fed sees so much to be cautious about.

投資顧問表示，如果說華爾街表現得像是它不願接受一個肯定的答案，那是因爲，聯儲在加息方面的謹慎態度雖然是受歡迎的，但它看上去擔憂得有些太多了。

“The market didn’t expect a rate hike, and it didn’t get one,” said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer for wealth management at Northern Trust. “The problem is the tone of the minutes and press conference that suggested the Fed is worried more about the global growth outlook than previously. That’s really spooking the market.”

“市場並不期待利率上調，而利率確實沒有上調，”北方信託公司(Northern Trust)財富管理部門首席投資官凱蒂·尼克松(Katie Nixon)說。“問題是備忘錄及新聞發佈會的基調說明，美聯儲對全球增長前景的擔憂超過以往。這讓市場十分恐慌。”

Laird R. Landmann, co-head of fixed income at the TCW fund-management company, agreed that central bankers were unnerving investors and suggested that they might have given themselves the jitters, too.

TCW基金管理公司固定收益業務聯席主管萊爾德·R·蘭德曼(Laird R. Landmann)認同央行令投資者感到不安這一觀點，並表示央行自己也許也被嚇到了。

“There’s a mind-set that has developed at the Fed where they’re waiting for a perfect moment that never comes,” he said.

他說，“美聯儲形成了這樣一種心態，他們在等待一個永遠不會到來的完美時刻。”

With or without the Fed’s help, enough happened in the third quarter to leave owners of stock funds feeling a bit twitchy. The average domestic portfolio fell 7.8 percent, according to Morningstar, led lower by specialists in energy and other natural resources, communications and technology.

不管有沒有美聯儲的幫助，第三季度發生的事情足以讓股票基金持有者感到有些不安。據投資研究公司晨星(Morningstar)透露，國內投資組合平均跌7.8%，能源、其他自然資源及通訊和技術股票領跌。

Looking at a broad array of American economic indicators, it’s hard to see what investors are afraid of. The United States is a paragon of growth, at least by the tepid standards of the last decade, especially the job market. The unemployment rate is hovering just above 5 percent, and the number of job openings hit 5.8 million in July, the most since the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics began reporting the figure in 2000.

看看一系列美國經濟指標，很難看出投資者在擔心什麼。美國是增長典範，至少以過去10年不溫不火的標準來看是這樣，特別是就業市場。失業率在剛剛超過5%的水平徘徊，7月的就業機會達到580萬個，這是自2000年聯邦勞工統計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)開始報告該數據以來的最高值。

“There are yellow lights flashing out there in terms of the global economy, but there’s no deterioration in the U.S. economy,” said Stephen E. Kylander, manager of the RBC Mid Cap Value fund.

“全球經濟在閃黃燈，但美國經濟並未走弱，”加拿大皇家銀行中盤價值基金(RBC Mid Cap Value)經理斯蒂芬·E·屈蘭德(Stephen E. Kylander)說。

That should be good news for small and medium-size companies. They depend on foreign markets for a smaller proportion of their sales than big companies do, but they benefit just as much from lower interest rates. Yet mid- and small-capitalization funds underperformed in the third quarter: Midcap portfolios lost 9.4 percent and small caps lost 10.8 percent.

對中小型企業而言，這本應是個好消息。與大型企業相比，它們的銷售對海外市場的依存度較小，但從低息上得到的好處又是同樣的。然而，中小市值基金在第三季度的表現並不如人意：中盤投資組合的價值下滑了9.4%，小盤則蒸發了10.8%。

One reason for the weakness, Mr. Kylander said, is that while smaller companies tend to have a domestic focus, many would like to gain a foothold overseas and cannot.

屈蘭德表示，造成這種疲軟表現的一個原因是，儘管中小企業往往把重心放在國內市場上，但其中不少是想去海外發展而無法做到。

But he sees value in market segments that offer decent dividend income, like utilities and commercial real estate investment trusts, and in domestically focused industries like trucking.

不過，他看好能提供良好分紅的市場板塊，比如電力和商業地產投資信託，以及貨車運輸這類專注於國內市場的行業。

Shareholders in international stock funds used the third quarter mainly as an opportunity to sell, driving the average one down 10 percent. Europe displayed newfound stability over the summer as Greece ceased to be an urgent problem for the moment, but that was more than offset by deteriorating conditions in emerging markets. Funds that specialize in Latin America, Asia and diversified emerging markets had average losses of 12.8 percent or more.

國際股票基金的股東們將第三季度主要用來拋售，令這些基金平均下滑了10%。隨着希臘不再是迫在眉睫的問題，歐洲在今夏重新迴歸穩定，不過這一點未能敵過新興市場的不斷惡化。專注於拉丁美洲、亞洲及各類新興市場的基金平均損失了至少12.8%。

Chinese stocks had an awful quarter; funds that focus on the country plunged 20.9 percent. The economic malaise there continued and may have contributed to the decline in American stocks and the limited relief experienced when the Fed stood pat.

這一季度中國股市慘淡，緊盯該國的基金下跌20.9%。中國的經濟困境仍在繼續，且可能是美國股市下跌的原因之一，導致股市在美聯儲保持現有政策不變時受到的救助有限。

Persistent money flows out of China forced its central bank in August to sell nearly $94 billion of foreign-currency reserves, much of it held in United States Treasuries, to try to prop up the currency, the renminbi. That would have produced an effect opposite to quantitative easing — the Fed’s substantial purchases of Treasury bonds that began during the financial crisis, ended about a year ago and are widely seen to have benefited stocks along the way.

8月，持續的資金流出迫使中國央行出售了近940億美元的外匯儲備，試圖以此支撐人民幣。這些外匯儲備中，很多是以美國國債的形式持有的。此舉可能產生了與量化寬鬆相左的影響——美聯儲在金融危機期間開始大量購買國債的行動在大約一年前結束，人們普遍認爲股市從始至終都從中受益。

China is a huge exporter, and with the decline in the renminbi it has begun to export deflation to other developing countries, forcing them into a difficult, maybe hopeless, position. If they weaken their currencies to match the renminbi devaluation, the burden of their immense dollar-denominated debt will grow when expressed in their own currencies. If they keep their currencies relatively strong, however, their exports will become less competitive.

中國是一個龐大的出口國。隨着人民幣的貶值，中國已開始把通貨緊縮輸出到其他發展中國家，迫使它們陷入一種困難，甚至可能是絕望的境地。如果這些國家爲與人民幣貶值保持一致而讓自己的貨幣貶值，那麼在用本國貨幣計算債務時，它們以美元計價的鉅額債務便會增加。但如果保持自己的貨幣相對堅挺，則其出口的競爭力會被削弱。

“There is no room for them to maneuver,” Mr. Sri-Kumar said. He expects the developing countries to devalue, even if it leads to credit downgrades, defaults and difficulty in refinancing debt for corporate and government borrowers.

“它們沒有迴旋的餘地，”斯里-庫馬爾說。他預計那些發展中國家會讓貨幣貶值，即便這麼做會導致信用評級下降、違約以及難以爲企業和政府借貸方的債務再融資。

“They will have to go through with it to have fewer negative effects on competitiveness,” he predicted.

“爲了減少競爭力受到的不利影響，它們必須這麼做，”他預言。

It’s a no-win situation. Mr. Sri-Kumar noted that emerging markets accounted for more than half of global economic output. They’re not the small, exotic growth stories of 10 or 20 years ago.

這是一種沒有贏家的形勢。斯里-庫馬爾指出，新興市場貢獻了全球一半以上的經濟產出。它們不再是10年或20年前那些新奇的增長小國。

If those countries slow because of this crisis, “eventually it’s going to reverberate back to the United States,” he said.

如果這些國家的經濟因這場危機而放緩，“最終會給美國造成嚴重影響，”他說。

Mr. Sri-Kumar predicted a year ago that the Fed would hold rates steady this year, and fragility in the developing world has persuaded him to extend his forecast through 2016. That could leave the stock market in a bad spot, in his view, as investors, desensitized to the putative benefits of ultra-easy monetary policy after nearly a decade, sell into any short-lived rally after the Fed postpones a rate increase, as it did last month.

一年前，斯里-庫馬爾預言美聯儲今年會讓利率保持穩定。鑑於發展中國家的脆弱局勢，他決定把這個預測延長至2016年全年。在他看來，這會讓股市處境艱難，因爲近十年後，投資者已對超寬鬆貨幣政策應帶來的好處脫敏，在美聯儲像上月那樣推遲加息後，他們會在一切短暫的反彈期間減持。

He recommends sheltering in high-quality bonds and blue-chip stocks that pay generous dividends.

他建議用優質債券和紅利豐厚的藍籌股避險。

Nothing goes down forever. At some point, perhaps in the first quarter, emerging stock markets will be cheap enough to present a low-risk buying opportunity, he said.

什麼都不會永遠走低。他說，在某個點上，或許就在明年一季度，新興市場的股市就會便宜到出現低風險買入的機會。

Rebecca H. Patterson, chief investment officer of Bessemer Trust, a firm that advises wealthy families, expects a shorter wait for the Fed to move.

爲富裕家庭提供諮詢的公司貝西默信託(Bessemer Trust)首席投資官麗貝卡·帕特森(Rebecca H. Patterson)預計，美聯儲行動前的等待時間會更短。

“The Fed is still looking at raising interest rates at some point in the coming months,” she said.

“美聯儲仍舊在考慮在未來幾個月的某個時間點上加息，”她說。

Ms. Patterson encourages investors to have a relatively heavy allocation in American stocks while they wait, particularly in financial services and consumer discretionary companies, and remain light in emerging markets and energy. She would also be comparatively light in bonds, although she finds mortgage-backed securities to be sound bets, she said, because they are less sensitive to rising rates and she detects consistent improvement in the housing market.

帕特森鼓勵投資者在等待期間，讓投資美國股市的份額相對大一些，特別是金融服務和非必須消費品公司的股票，並保持少量新興市場和能源投資。她表示，自己還是會相對比較少地投資債券，不過她發現按揭抵押證券比較穩妥，因爲它們對加息不那麼敏感，而房地產市場也在持續改善。

Ms. Nixon at Northern Trust has a similar view of American and emerging markets: heavy in the first, light in the second. She also advocates a more modest than usual bond allocation. As for the Fed, it “wants to get off the zero,” she said, but “the job isn’t going to get any easier” given the global backdrop. So “if the Fed hikes, it may be one and done,” she said.

北方信託的尼克松對美國和新興市場的觀點類似：投資大頭放在前者，小頭放在後者。她還主張給債券分配比平時更少的資金。至於美聯儲，她表示，該機構“希望結束利率接近零的情況”，但考慮到全球背景，“這件事不會那麼容易”。因此“如果美聯儲加息，可能也是一次就結束了，”她說。

Mr. Landmann at TCW contends that the Fed is content to keep rates where they are.

TCW的蘭德曼認爲，美聯儲願意保持當前利率。

“They’re looking for reasons not to tighten,” he said. “It’s hard to believe, at any given meeting coming up, that we have more than a 50-50 chance of tightening if things stay as they are.”

“他們正在尋找不收緊的理由，”他說。“如果形勢保持不變，在即將召開的任何一次會議上，我們都很難認爲收緊的可能性會超過50%。”

But with rates so low, Mr. Landmann cautioned, if conditions deteriorate in China and elsewhere and begin to weigh more heavily on the American economy and markets, there will be little the Fed can do. For six years, investors have bought stocks after declines. Now might be a good time to sell after rallies, he advised.

但蘭德曼告誡稱，在利率這麼低的情況下，如果中國和其他地方的形勢惡化，並開始加大對美國經濟和市場的壓力，美聯儲將幾乎無計可施。六年來，投資者一直都在下跌後買進。他建議說，現在可能是反彈後減持的好時機。

“If you’re a conservative, value-oriented investor, when prices go up you want to use it as an opportunity to take risk out of your portfolio,” he said. “Asset prices can’t stay high forever. There may be decent returns for the next quarter as the Fed stays on hold, but even that won’t work after a while. The rest of the world may take matters into their own hands. It may not matter what the Fed does.”

“如果是以價值爲導向的保守型投資者，價格上漲時你會希望藉機消除投資組合中的風險，”他說。“資產價格不可能永遠處於高位。隨着美聯儲保持現有利率水平，下個季度可能會有不錯的回報，但即便是這一招也不會長期有效。世界其他地區可能會自己出手。美聯儲的行動可能不重要。”