莫讓陳規阻礙服務貿易全球化

If world trade were behaving the way it used to, the global economy would be in crisis rather than just looking a touch wobbly.

如果世界貿易還像過去那樣開展，全球經濟可能會陷入危機，而不會只是看起來有些不穩。

During the 1990s and most of the 2000s, goods trade grew at about twice the rate of global gross domestic product. The financial crisis brought with it a massive 12 per cent contraction in trade volumes, which led to a great deal of hand-wringing about a repeat of the collapse in global commerce during the Great Depression. There was then a smart recovery in goods being shipped, which reassured many that business had returned to usual.

在上世紀90年代和本世紀頭十年的大部分時間裏，商品貿易增速大約是全球GDP增速的兩倍。金融危機導致貿易規模大幅萎縮12%，使得許多人非常擔憂“大蕭條”(Great Depression)期間全球貿易崩潰的情景重現。隨後商品發運量迅速復甦，這又讓許多人相信，情況已迴歸正常。

In fact, neither catastrophists nor optimists were right. While goods trade has expanded over the past five years, it has done no more than keep pace with the growth of the global economy. Economists and policymakers wondering whether this is a cause for alarm have generally concluded not.

實際上，災難論者和樂觀者都錯了。儘管商品貿易過去5年裏在增長，但它只不過是與全球經濟增長維持了同步。曾經探究這是否值得警惕的經濟學家和政策制定者大多得出了否定的結論。

Much of the slow growth in trade seems to be to do with the changing structures of supply chains, with China in particular taking internationally disaggregated production lines inside its economy. But it still means that, with global commerce shifting from manufacturing and agriculture to services and investment, the international rules of the game are struggling to keep up.

貿易增長緩慢在很大程度上與供應鏈結構不斷變化有關，尤其是中國將原本分散在世界各地的生產線集中到了中國經濟內部。不過這仍意味着，隨着全球貿易從製造業和農業轉向服務和投資，國際貿易規則很難跟上這種轉變。

Ironically, given its disembodied nature, the rapid expansion of digitisation from the 1990s seems to have facilitated trade in goods much more than in services. Instant communication of demand and production meant rapid and efficient manufacturing supply chains could snake around the world.

具有諷刺意味的是，鑑於其無實體的特質，上世紀90年代起數字化的快速擴張對商品貿易的促進似乎遠遠超過其對服務業的促進。需求和生產的實時溝通意味着快速而高效的製造業供應鏈可以遍佈世界各地。

Cross-border flows of data are growing very quickly: the consultancy McKinsey estimates that by the end of 2016, businesses and individuals will send 20 times as much data around the world as in 2008. Yet while parts of some sectors like business services have seen considerable outsourcing, others such as legal and professional services, constrained as they tend to be by domestic regulation, are subject to much less international competition.

數據跨境流動越來越快：諮詢公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)估計，到2016年年底，企業和個人在全世界發送的數據將是2008年的20倍。然而，儘管企業服務等行業出現了大量外包，但法律和專業服務等其他行業面臨的國際競爭要少得多（這類行業往往受到國內監管規定的限制）。

The reality is that globalisation of much of the newer parts of the economy, particularly the service sector, has been held back by fragmented regulation and segmented markets. Attempts to unify different sets of rules have generally foundered on entrenched interests and the inertia that comes with regulatory frameworks that are time-consuming and politically difficult to change.

現實情況是，許多較新的經濟部門（尤其是服務業）的全球化受到監管不統一和市場割裂的阻礙。整合不同規則的努力通常因既得利益集團的阻撓以及與監管框架相伴隨的惰性而失敗——改變監管框架既耗費時間，在政治上又非常困難。

For example: in both the Trans-Pacific Partnership it has negotiated with eleven other Asia-Pacific countries and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership it is hammering out with the EU, the US has argued that trade in financial services is a key part of the global economy. Yet there is no appetite in the US for substantially reopening the Dodd-Frank Act to aid harmonisation of international practices.

例如，在美國與其他11個亞太國家達成的《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP），以及其正在與歐盟(EU)商談的《跨大西洋貿易與投資夥伴關係協定》（Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership，簡稱TTIP）中，美國都主張，金融服務貿易是全球經濟的關鍵部分。然而，美國沒有興趣大動干戈地重新討論《多德-弗蘭克法案》(Dodd-Frank Act)以幫助協調國際金融活動。

Only recently has the apparatus of trade negotiations turned itself towards the modern services trade. The Doha round of trade talks which died a merciful death last year after 15 years of negotiations focused mainly on agricultural and manufactured goods. Talks over a smaller plurilateral services agreement were launched in 2012, but are a long way from conclusion. Meanwhile, the attempt to harmonise regulations in the TTIP is foundering on differences in the way the EU and US set their rules.

貿易談判機制只是在最近纔將重點轉向現代服務貿易。多哈回合貿易談判在十五年致力於農業和製造品談判之後於去年終於壽終正寢。圍繞較小規模的多邊服務協定的談判在2012年纔開始啓動，離締結協議還早得很。與此同時，協調TTIP監管規則的努力因美歐制定規則的方式不同而失敗。

Global patterns of trade are changing, and the rapid growth in goods exports and imports in the two decades before the global financial crisis may never return. If globalisation in services is to replicate that already achieved in goods, the rules that govern it must change too.

全球貿易模式日新月異，全球金融危機爆發前20年裏的那種商品進出口快速增長局面可能一去不復返了。要想讓服務業全球化複製商品全球化取得的那種成就，就必須同時改變相應的治理規則。