美股本週有望創史上第二長牛市

The US stock market is set to hit a new milestone on Thursday, surpassing the postwar boom as the second-longest sustained period of rising share prices, even as questions intensify about the health of corporate profits.

雖然有越來越多的人質疑美國企業利潤的健康狀況，但美國股市本週四仍有望創下一個新的里程碑，超越戰後的繁榮期、錄得美國史上持續時間第二長的牛市。

It comes in a week when statements from central banks in the US and Japan will be heavily scrutinised for the extent of official support for asset prices, highlighting the parallel boom in safe securities such as government debt.

本週，市場還將仔細研讀美國及日本央行的聲明、以把握政府對資產價格的支撐力度。這件事讓人們注意到，國債等避險證券同樣處於牛市中。

The longest sustained US rally apart from the bull market of 1987 to 2000 highlights a conundrum: stock market valuations imply a future of rosy profits and economic optimism at the same time as sovereign bonds are priced for a stagnant world of diminished opportunity and minimal inflation.

美國股市這輪漲勢的持續時間之長將僅次於1987年至2000年的牛市。這輪漲勢凸顯出了一個難以解答的問題：股市的估值暗示未來利潤樂觀、經濟形勢喜人，而主權債券的定價卻暗示未來機會減少、通脹極低、增長停滯。

Laurence Mutkin, global head of G10 rates strategy at BNP Paribas, said the twin rallies were the result of the paradox of official programmes of bond buying, or quantitative easing.

法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)十國集團利率策略全球主管勞倫斯•穆特金(Laurence Mutkin)表示，股債雙牛是由官方債券購買計劃（即量化寬鬆計劃）的悖論造成的。

“The bond market is not just the barometer of market expectations it is also a policy tool for central banks,” he said. “That means prices don’t just reflect investor views of the underlying economy.”

他說：“債券市場不僅是市場預期的晴雨表，也是央行的政策工具。這意味着，債券價格不僅僅反映投資者對經濟基本面的看法。”

Analysts forecast the earnings of S&P 500 companies to fall 7 per cent in the first quarter of 2016, compared to the same period the year before, according to Thomson Reuters.

湯森路透(Thomson Reuters)的數據顯示，分析師預計標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)成份股企業2016年首季度利潤同比下降7%。

From the March 2009 low point US stocks will have risen for 2,607 days on Thursday, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, surpassing the long expansion of June 1949 to August 1956.

美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的數據顯示，到本週四，美國股市始於2009年3月低點的這輪牛市的持續天數將達到2607天，超過1949年6月至1956年8月的那輪“長牛”。