日本啓動對GDP數據的更正

Japan has begun a revamp of its gross domestic product numbers because of rising concern about their accuracy, following a Bank of Japan report that suggests a huge understatement of growth in 2014.

由於越來越擔心數據的準確性，日本啓動了對其國內生產總值(GDP)數據的更正。此前，日本央行(BoJ)一份報告暗示日本2014年GDP增速被大大低估。

An official Cabinet Office study group met for the first time on Wednesday and separate groups in other ministries are examining the figures, amid fears that data problems could affect economic policymaking.

由於擔心數據問題或影響經濟政策制定，日本內閣一個官方研究組織週三舉行了首次會晤，其他部門另外一些組織則在對數據開展審查。

The overhaul highlights growing issues with GDP data around the world because of declining response rates to official surveys.

這一全面審查凸顯出，由於迴應官方調查的比例下滑，全球在GDP數據上的問題越來越大。

Unreliable numbers leave central banks and finance ministries flying blind as they try to set economic policy.

不可靠的數據，令各國央行和財政部在制定經濟政策時陷入盲目狀態。

My feeling is the official data are getting worse and worse, said one Japanese policymaker who uses the GDP figures.

一位使用GDP數據的日本政策制定者表示：我感覺官方數據越來越糟糕了。

We have to rely more and more on qualitative data in order to assess the business cycle.

爲了評估商業週期，我們只能越來越多地依賴定性數據。

According to an experimental index prepared by the BoJ, Japan’s economy expanded 2.4 per cent in 2014, rather than falling 0.9 per cent as the official data showed.

根據日本央行籌備中的一個實驗性指標，2014年日本經濟增長了2.4%，而不是如官方數據所說的下跌了0.9%。

The official figures suggest Japan’s economy was hit hard by rise in consumption tax that year to 8 per cent, prompting a drop into recession, which helped to damp both wage demands and corporate investment plans for the following year.

官方數據顯示日本經濟受到了該年度將消費稅提升至8%的沉重打擊，從而導致日本經濟墜入衰退。在這一衰退助推下，下一年的薪資需求和企業的投資計劃都受到了抑制。

But the alternative numbers suggest that recession never happened.

然而，新的數據卻顯示這一衰退從未發生過。

BoJ economists grew concerned because the official GDP figures showed that households had spent more than they saved and the operating surplus of companies had fallen.

此外，官方GDP數據顯示日本家庭開支超過了存儲，日本企業的結餘已經下滑，這些情況令日本央行的經濟學家越來越擔心。

That clashed with other data suggesting more cash in consumer bank accounts, rising tax revenue and record corporate profits.

然而，上述狀況卻與其他數據發生了衝突，這些數據顯示消費銀行賬號中的現金增多了、日本的稅收也增加了、企業利潤還創了紀錄。

Using comprehensive data from tax returns, instead of the surveys underlying the official GDP numbers, BoJ economists calculated an independent figure for gross domestic income — adding up all the earnings in the economy, which should, in theory, be identical to GDP.

通過使用由稅收得出的綜合數據，而不是作爲官方GDP數據來源的相關調查，日本央行的經濟學家計算得出了一個獨立的GDP指數——他們把日本經濟體中的盈利累加起來，理論上應該會等於GDP的數額。

Those estimates suggest that not only did the economy grow but real output was significantly higher, at ￥556tn compared with ￥525tn in the official figures for 2014.

這些估計數值顯示日本經濟不僅增長了，而且實際產出大幅提高，達到556萬億日元，大大超過了525萬億日元的2014年日本官方數據。

There are several theories to explain the gulf in the figures.

對於這些數據的巨大差距有多種解釋。

One is that young companies are not answering the official economic census, so those growing fastest are missed by the GDP numbers but covered when they file their tax returns.

其中一個解釋是成立時間較短的公司沒有答覆官方的經濟普查，導致GDP數據未能涵蓋增長最快的企業，而他們報稅時這些數據卻被統計了進來。

Another possibility is that companies misreported their sales in 2014, using the old consumption tax rate of 5 per cent rather than the new figure of 8 per cent, biasing the numbers downwards for that year.

另一種可能性則是企業誤報了2014年的銷售額，它們使用的是5%的舊消費稅稅率而不是8%的新消費稅稅率，從而導致該年數據向下失真。