日本第三季度GDP由萎縮修正爲增長

Not only is Japan not in recession, it was growing strongly in the third quarter of 2015, as the country’s gross domestic product data cemented its reputation for unreliability.

今年第三季度，日本經濟非但沒有衰退，反而還呈現出強勁增長。日本國內生產總值(GDP)數據是出了名的不可靠，這一反覆讓其進一步坐實了這一名聲。

Growth for the third quarter was revised on Tuesday from an annualised fall of 0.8 per cent to an annualised rise of 1 per cent, erasing the technical “recession” declared just three weeks ago.

週二，日本經濟第三季度的年化增速從-0.8%修正至1%。這一結果使得3周前宣佈的技術性“衰退”不復存在。

The revision was far greater than analysts’ forecasts of a 0.1 per cent rise. It changes the whole picture of the Japanese economy towards healthy growth — assuming the revised figure is accurate.

分析師預期的修正結果爲增長0.1%，此次修正的結果遠高於分析師的預期。此次修正重繪了日本經濟的整體圖景、顯示出日本經濟正走向健康增長——假如修正後的數字準確的話。

Investment was the main force behind the revisions: it was amended from a quarter-on-quarter fall of 1.3 per cent to a rise of 0.6 per cent. That meant that instead of subtracting 0.7 percentage point from annualised growth, it added 0.3 percentage point.

投資是此次修正的重頭：第三季度，投資由環比萎縮1.3%修正至增長0.6%。這意味着，投資並沒有從年化增速中抹去0.7個百分點，而是爲其增添了0.3個百分點。

Companies also whittled down inventories less than previously thought. Whereas in the first estimate inventories knocked 2.1 percentage points off annualised growth, that was revised down to 0.8 percentage point.

企業削減庫存的速度也低於此前預期。在初始估值中，庫存從年化增速中抹去了2.1個百分點，此次被修正爲抹去了0.8個百分點。

The first estimate of Japan’s GDP, which relies on partial survey data, is notoriously unreliable and prone to large revisions. A 1.8 percentage point shift from expansion to contraction is rare, however.

日本GDP初值是出了名的不可靠，往往會經歷大幅修正。然而，由萎縮修正爲擴張且修正幅度達1.8個百分點的的情況相當罕見。

Japan’s government is pushing companies to increase investment at home and raise wages in order to boost demand, stimulate the economy and escape deflation.

日本政府正敦促企業擴大國內投資和提升薪資，以提振需求、刺激經濟和擺脫通縮。