中國銀行業與監管機構圍繞撥備覆蓋率展開角力

China’s banks are in a deepening stand-off with regulators over the level of provisions they must make to protect against loan defaults as bad debts continue to climb.

隨着中國銀行業的壞賬不斷攀升，各銀行與監管機構在撥備覆蓋率水平問題上產生的對峙正在加深。

While institutions are required to maintain provisions of at least 150 per cent of non-performing loans, the largest banks are pressing for looser rules through a mixture of public lobbying and private defiance.

儘管各家銀行的撥備覆蓋率被要求保持在至少150%，但幾家大銀行正通過公開遊說和私下違抗等方式，促使監管機構放鬆這方面的規定。

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has flouted the rule for three consecutive quarters and an executive told the Financial Times that the bank would find it difficult to come back into compliance.

中國工商銀行(ICBC)已連續三個季度無視這一規定，一名高管向英國《金融時報》表示，該行很難在這方面回到合規狀態。

Raising loan loss provisions will affect profit growth, and [raising] profits is our biggest task right now, said the executive, who wished to remain anonyMous.

這名希望匿名的高管表示：提高撥備覆蓋率將影響利潤增長，而目前我們最大的任務是（提高）利潤。

The pressure of non-performing [loans] is very great.

不良（貸款）的壓力太大了。

We need the reserves we made in previous years to resolve them.

我們需要用前幾年撥出的準備金來解決它們。

Considering these two points, it is difficult to raise loan loss reserves.

考慮到這兩點，提高撥備覆蓋率是有難度的。

Officially, 1.8 per cent of all Chinese loans are non-performing,

官方數據顯示，在中國的全部貸款中，不良貸款佔1.8%。

although the credit rating agency Fitch puts the true figure at more than 15 per cent.

但信用評級機構惠譽(Fitch)認爲，真實的數字超過了15%。

Following a huge credit boom, the outstanding amount of non-performing loans doubled in the two years before June 2016, reaching Rmb1.4tn

經歷一輪大規模信貸繁榮之後，中國不良貸款餘額在2016年6月前的兩年裏增長了一倍，達到1.4萬億元人民幣。

In a recent macroprudential assessment by the central bank, ICBC was docked points for flouting the loan loss provision ratio target,

在中國央行最近開展的宏觀審慎評估中，工行因無視撥備覆蓋率目標被扣了分。

but in the third quarter its coverage ratio fell further to 136 per cent from 143 per cent in the previous three months.

然而，今年第三季度，該行的撥備覆蓋率卻從上一季度的143%進一步下滑至136%。

Bank of China, another of China’s big four state-owned lenders, fell short of the 150 per cent standard in the first quarter.

今年第一季度，中國四大國有銀行中的另一家——中國銀行(BoC)——也沒有達到150%的標準。

The banks may be flouting the rules in anticipation that they will be changed.

銀行無視這方面的規定，或許是因爲它們預計這些規定將被修改。

Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank governor, has said that he favours a countercyclical regulatory framework,

中國央行行長周小川已表示，他青睞逆週期性監管架構。

which would demand high provisions during economic booms to discourage overlending, but which would loosen standards during recessions to support the flow of credit to the economy.

這種架構會在經濟繁榮期要求更高的撥備、以抑制過度放貸，但在衰退期卻會放鬆標準、以支撐流向實體經濟的信貸流。

Some analysts have interpreted this to mean that China’s banking regulations are about to be loosened.

部分分析師對這一表態的解讀是，它意味着中國對銀行業的監管將會放鬆。

But while China is heading into an economic slowdown, credit growth is still booming, meaning that it is not clear whether countercyclical regulation implies tightening or loosening.

不過，儘管中國正走向經濟放緩，信貸增長卻依然很猛，這意味着目前仍不清楚逆週期性監管到底指的是收緊還是放鬆。

Setting standards is a tussle between the banks and the regulators, said Zhang Yingchao, banking analyst at NSBO China, an investment bank.

投行藍橡資本中國(NSBO China)銀行業分析師張穎超（音譯）表示：標準的設定是銀行與監管機構之間的一場角力。

Who gets the upper hand depends on the state of the economy.

誰會佔上風取決於經濟的狀況。

If increasing the credit supply is necessary to meet the growth target of 6.5-7 per cent, then the regulators will need to relax standards.

如果爲了實現6.5%到7%的增長目標有必要增加信貸供應，那麼監管機構就需要放鬆標準。

Wang Hongzhang, chairman of China Construction Bank, another big four institution, told Bloomberg this year it would be reasonable and possible for the regulators to lower the standard to between 120 and 130 per cent.

另一家四大行中國建設銀行(China Construction Bank)的董事長王洪章今年曾向彭博社(Bloomberg)表示，監管機構將撥備覆蓋率標準降至120%到130%是合理且可行的。

Bank of China’s research institute published a report last year recommending that the loan-loss provision ratio be lowered from 150 to 100 per cent.

中行的研究機構去年曾發佈一份報告，建議把撥備覆蓋率紅線從150%降至100%。

Banks also argue that many other countries require loan-loss provisions of 100 per cent or less,

銀行還聲稱，其他許多國家的銀行壞賬撥備覆蓋率要求爲100%甚至更低。

although some observers say there are reasons for imposing a higher number in China.

不過，部分觀察人士表示，中國要求較高的撥備覆蓋率是有道理的。

David Yin of Moody’s, the credit rating agency, said: Chinese banks may have material amounts of problem loans that are not formally classified as non-performing, as evidenced by the rising discrepancy between banks’ overdue loan ratios and NPL ratios.

信用評級機構穆迪(Moody's)的David Yin表示：銀行逾期貸款比率與不良貸款比率之間的出入越來越大，這表明，中國的銀行可能存在大量未被正式歸類爲不良貸款的問題貸款。

The 150 per cent coverage ratio requirement urges banks to maintain more provisions and helps mitigate the NPL classification issue.

150%的撥備覆蓋率要求，會促使銀行維持較高的撥備，有助於緩和這一不良貸款歸類問題。