英鎊貶值導致留學英國成本大降

The fall in the pound’s value since Brexit has reduced the cost of UK degrees for international students by up to a fifth, but also made low-wage jobs less attractive to foreign workers, new analysis has shown.

一項新研究表明，英國退歐公投以後英鎊貶值，使得國際留學生在英國攻讀學位的成本大爲降低，降幅最多達到五分之一，同時也使得英國低薪工作對外籍員工的吸引力下降。

A study by the Oxford Migration Observatory suggests that the currency fluctuation will have a variety of different effects on future immigration flows depending on the reasons for a migrants coming to Britain.

牛津大學移民觀察(Oxford Migration Observatory)的研究表明，匯率波動將對未來移民流產生多種不同的影響，具體都有些什麼影響要看移民來英國的原因。

International students, for instance, stand to make savings because the weak pound reduces the annual of ￡13,500 undergraduate tuition fees for overseas applicants. Chinese students will have experienced a 13 per cent cut in fees between the June Brexit referendum and the December 2016, while those paying in US dollars would have saved 17 per cent, and those using the South African rand by 20 per cent. This does not take into account further reductions in living costs.

例如，國際留學生將能節省一些錢。英國大學本科學費每年約1.35萬英鎊，英鎊貶值會降低海外申請者的花費。從去年6月英國舉行退歐公投到去年12月期間，中國留學生的學費相當於減少了13%，而那些以美元交學費的學生則節省了17%，以南非蘭特交學費的學生節省了20%。這還未考慮在英國生活成本的降低。

The findings are significant because the currency shift may help to reverse the recent falls in the number of international students coming to study at British universities.

這些發現具有重要意義，因爲匯率變動可能有助於扭轉近年來進入英國大學就讀的國際留學生數量下滑的趨勢。

According to the most recent figures, immigration of students fell by nearly a quarter to 134,000 in the year to September 2016. In particular, number of Indian students arriving at UK universities halved under the last parliament.

最新數據顯示，在截至2016年9月的一年，在英國的國際留學生人數爲13.4萬人，比上年減少了將近四分之一。特別是，在上屆議會期間，進入英國大學就讀的印度留學生人數減少了一半。

On the other hand, the weak pound risks deterring foreign workers, particularly those in low-wage jobs. The Migration Observatory has calculated that Poles converting sterling into zloty would have received nearly 10 per cent less between the referendum and the end of 2016, while those sending Indian Rupees back home would have seen a fall of nearly 15 per cent.

另一方面，英鎊貶值可能讓外國工人不願來英工作，特別是低薪務工人員。牛津移民觀察計算得出，從退歐公投到2016年12月，波蘭人把英鎊兌換爲茲羅提換到的錢會少將近10%，而那些往國內匯印度盧比的人會損失將近15%。

Carlos Vargas-Silva, acting director of the Observatory, said there was no “hard evidence” that the currency change was affecting foreign workers in the UK, “but if you look at the sectors such as agriculture, employers are saying they have to pay more to attract the Eastern European workers they used before the currency change”.

牛津移民觀察的代理主任卡洛斯?巴爾加斯-席爾瓦(Carlos Vargas-Silva)稱，沒有“確鑿證據”顯示匯率變化正在影響在英國工作的外國工人，“但如果你觀察一些行業，比如農業，僱主都在說，爲了吸引匯率變動前爲他們幹活的東歐工人，他們現在不得不支付更高的工資”。

“Currencies and exchange rates is just one of many factors affecting migrant behaviour, but if you come to work in a country then the value of the money you’re earning and how much you can send back is an important issue in your decision about where to work,” he said.

他說：“貨幣和匯率只是影響移民行爲的衆多因素之一，但如果你來一個國家工作，那麼你所賺的那種貨幣的價值以及你能寄回家多少，就成了你決定在哪工作時會考慮的重要因素。”

Farms and food processing companies have struggled to recruit eastern European workers post-Brexit. This is thought to be a combination of the effect of the weaker pound and a feeling of being less welcome in the UK since the referendum.

退歐公投後，英國的農場和食品加工企業很難招到東歐工人。這被認爲是英鎊貶值以及退歐公投後外國工人感覺不太受歡迎的共同作用使然。

There is a historical precedent for currency changes affecting economic migrants. Research by the UK’s Department for Work and Pensions suggests that during the 2007-09 financial crisis, the sterling-zloty exchange rate was tightly correlated with the outflow of eastern European migrants. However, this was also a time when UK unemployment was rising sharply which may have been an additional factor.

匯率變化影響經濟移民的情況是有歷史先例的。英國工作與養老金部(Department for Work and Pensions)的研究表明，在2007-2009年金融危機期間，英鎊對茲羅提匯率與東歐移民流出密切相關。不過那段時期英國失業率急劇上升，可能也是導致東歐移民流出的一個因素。

In the short-term, Mr Vargas-Silva warned that the currency fluctuations alone are not likely to cause “an increase or decrease in immigration across the board”.

巴爾加斯-席爾瓦警告稱，在短期內，單單匯率波動不太可能造成“整體移民增加或減少”。

“The differing effects for each group mean this will make the UK more attractive for some migrants, and less for others,” he said. “If the devaluation of the pound turns out to be a long-term trend which lasts, then we will start to see subtle effects in the immigration figures.”

“英鎊貶值對各個羣體的影響不同，意味着這將使得英國對某些移民的吸引力增加，對另外一些移民的吸引力降低，”他稱，“如果英鎊貶值成爲持續存在的長期趨勢，那麼我們將從移民數據中看到具體的影響。”