中國貸款幫助巴基斯坦避免貨幣危機

China has increased its economic sway in Pakistan during the past year, providing more than $1bn in loans to help its neighbour stave off a currency crisis.

中國在過去一年加大對巴基斯坦的經濟影響力，提供逾10億美元貸款以幫助這個鄰國避免一場貨幣危機。

State-backed Chinese banks have twice come to the rescue of the nuclear-armed state, officials have told the Financial Times, with $900m in 2016 and $300m in the first three months of this year.

官員們告訴英國《金融時報》，國家支持的中資銀行兩度救助擁有核武的巴基斯坦，2016年提供了9億美元，今年頭三個月提供了3億美元。

The loans demonstrate the perilous fragility of Pakistan’s stocks of foreign currency, depleted in recent months by rising imports and falls in exports and remittances from Pakistanis abroad.

這些貸款顯示出巴基斯坦外匯儲備的脆弱性，近幾個月由於進口上升、出口下降以及海外巴基斯坦人減少匯款回家而趨於枯竭。

China’s financial help also underlines an increasingly close relationship at a time of strains between Pakistan and the US.

在巴基斯坦與美國關係緊張之際，中國的財務援助也突顯了中巴兩國日益密切的關係。

Beijing is preparing to invest at least $52bn in Pakistan to build a highway, energy pipelines, power-generation facilities and industrial parks from the western port of Gwadar on the Gulf to the Chinese border to the north.

北京方面正準備在巴基斯坦投資至少520億美元，沿着從該國西部瀕臨波斯灣的瓜德爾港到北部巴中邊境的路線，建造一條高速公路，以及若干能源管道、發電設施和工業園區。

But despite its expected benefits, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor infrastructure project is set to further deplete the foreign currency stocks, needed to pay contractors and suppliers.

但是，儘管有預期的好處，但中巴經濟走廊(China-Pakistan Economic Corridor)基建項目勢必進一步消耗巴基斯坦的外匯儲備，因爲該國將需要向承包商和供應商付款。

Figures from the State Bank of Pakistan show the country had $17.1bn of net reserves at the end of February, down from $18.9bn at the end of October and a peak of $25bn several years ago.

巴基斯坦國家銀行(State Bank of Pakistan)的數據顯示，2月底該國淨外匯儲備爲171億美元，低於去年10月底的189億美元，以及幾年前達到的250億美元的峯值。

This has forced the country to seek emergency loans from outside sources to repay older loans made in foreign currencies.

這迫使該國從外部來源尋求緊急貸款，以償還以外幣計價的較早貸款。

Of the $1.2bn from the Chinese institutions, $600m came from the government-run China Development Bank and $600m from the state-owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the only mainland bank with a branch in Pakistan. Policy banks such as CDB often act on behalf of the central bank.

在中資機構提供的12億美元中，有6億美元來自中國國家開發銀行(CDB)，還有6億美元來自國有控股的中國工商銀行(ICBC)，後者是在巴基斯坦設有分行的唯一中資銀行。國開行等政策性銀行往往代表中國央行行事。

One Pakistani official said: “China keeps a very close eye on our economic trends and they’re happy to come to our help wherever needed.”

一位巴基斯坦官員說：“中國非常關注我們的經濟發展趨勢，他們樂意在需要的時候幫助我們。”

But experts warn that Pakistan is likely to have to return to institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, to which it sought recourse in 2013, for further support.

但是專家們警告說，巴基斯坦很可能不得不再度向國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)這樣的機構尋求進一步的支持；該國曾在2013年向IMF求助。

Vaqar Ahmed, deputy executive director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in Islamabad, said: “Technically speaking we should have gone back to the IMF in January, but ministers are likely to try and wait until after the election [for parliament planned for 2018].”

伊斯蘭堡可持續發展政策研究所(SDPI)副執行主任瓦加爾?艾哈邁德(Vaqar Ahmed)表示：“從技術上說，我們應該在1月份就再度向IMF求助，但是部長級官員們很可能會試圖拖到（計劃於2018年舉行的議會）選舉之後。”

One member of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz told the Financial Times ministers were loath to turn to the IMF until after the election in an effort to limit the political fallout.

執政的巴基斯坦穆斯林聯盟（謝里夫派）的一名成員告訴英國《金融時報》，爲了限制政治衝擊波，部長級官員們極其不願意在選舉之前向IMF求助。

“The IMF is a politically volatile issue in our country. If we go to the IMF to deal with our needs, that will send a very negative political signal and the opposition [parties] will use that against the government,” the person said.

“IMF在我國是一個政治敏感的問題。如果我們去找IMF來解決我們的需要，那將發出一個非常消極的政治信號，反對派政黨將借用這件事狠批政府，”此人表示。

It was only last year that Pakistan cleared the IMF debt incurred in 2013, a repayment that led policymakers in Islamabad and abroad to express optimism about prospects for economic stability.

巴基斯坦只是在去年才還清了2013年欠下的IMF債務，此舉導致伊斯蘭堡及海外的政策制定者對經濟穩定前景表示樂觀。

Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, called it a “moment of opportunity” for the country.

IMF總裁克里斯蒂娜?拉加德(Christine Lagarde)曾把這件事稱爲該國的“機遇時刻”。