中國經濟增長目標還能保多久

Economic data released in China last week revealed the government’s two-steps-forward, one-step-back approach to macroeconomic management.

上週發佈的經濟數據突顯了中國政府進兩步、退一步的宏觀經濟管理方式。

While the rest of the world fretted about runaway debt levels in the world’s second-largest economy earlier this year, Chinese economic planners kept their eyes firmly on their target range for gross domestic product growth, set at 6.5 to 7 per cent.

今年早些時候，世界其他地區對中國失控的債務水平表示擔憂，但中國經濟規劃者只緊緊盯着他們設定在6.5%至7%區間的國內生產總值(GDP)增長目標。

With the National Bureau of Statistics reporting three straight quarterly growth figures of 6.7 per cent, the Chinese government does not have to worry about full-year growth falling below 6.5 per cent.

隨着中國國家統計局連續三個季度報告6.7%的經濟增速，中國政府不必再擔心全年增速會低於6.5%。

Instead, it can turn its attention to reining in some of the excesses that made this year’s better than expected growth figures possible.

相反，它可以將注意力轉向控制一些過度的指標，這些指標有可能使得今年增速好於預期。

On October 18, a day before the third-quarter GDP growth figure was released, central bank data showed that China’s broadest measure of credit, an aggregate figure referred to as total social financing, rose 11.3 per cent year-on-year in September to Rmb1.72tn.

10月18日，也就是第三季度GDP發佈前一天，中國央行數據顯示，中國最廣義信貸指標——社會融資總量9月份同比增長11.3%，至1.72萬億元人民幣。

That was the highest September credit figure on record and well above expectations.

這是有記錄以來9月份的最高信貸數據，遠高於預期水平。

Of this aMount, banks had issued new loans totalling Rmb1.2tn in September, with mortgages accounting for about half of the new lending as property prices continued to bubble over in a number of cities.

在9月份社會融資總量中，銀行新增貸款共計1.2萬億元人民幣，其中抵押貸款約佔新增貸款的一半，原因是很多城市的房地產價格仍在上漲。

China’s stock of outstanding mortgages is now equivalent to almost 25 per cent of GDP, compared with just 15 per cent five years ago.

中國目前的未清償抵押貸款存量幾乎相當於GDP的25%，而5年前這一比例只有15%。

Corporate lending also continued to surge, up more than 13 per cent in September.

企業貸款也持續激增，9月份增長逾13%。

But there are increasing signs that the Chinese government realises credit cannot continue to expand at twice the rate of the underlying economy indefinitely.

但越來越多的跡象表明，中國政府已經認識到信貸不能無限期地以基礎經濟增速的兩倍增長。

Earlier this month the State Council formally approved a debt-for-equity programme intended to relieve some of the financial strain on struggling companies,

本月早些時候，中國國務院正式批准了一項債轉股計劃，該計劃的目的是緩解一些陷入困境的公司的財務壓力。

while more than 20 municipal governments introduced emergency measures to cool overheated property markets.

與此同時，20多個城市的政府採取了緊急措施給過熱的房地產市場降溫。

In these cities, transactions will come down dramatically and prices will moderate, says Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan in Hong Kong.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)駐香港首席中國經濟學家朱海斌表示：在這些城市，交易將大幅下滑，價格將趨緩。

More important is the outlook for new home starts, which in turn create demand for everything from concrete to steel.

更重要的是新屋開工的前景，因爲新屋開工會拉動對混凝土、鋼材等各種材料的需求。

Mr Zhu predicts that nationwide home starts will decline next year, depriving the Chinese economy of one of its most important motors.

朱海斌預計，全國住宅開工率明年將下降，這將使中國經濟失去最重要的引擎之一。

The property outlook is especially bad in heavy industrial regions that have been most affected by China’s economic slowdown.

在受中國經濟放緩影響最嚴重的重工業地區，房地產的前景尤其黯淡。

Jeremy Stevens at Standard Bank estimates that the three northeastern provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang have six years of unsold housing inventory — or 25 per cent of the national total.

標準銀行(Standard Bank)的傑里米.斯蒂芬斯(Jeremy Stevens)估計，東北三省——遼寧、吉林和黑龍江——的房屋庫存（相當於全國總庫存的25%）需要六年才能消化。

Those [provinces] are deadweight, Mr Stevens says.

這些（省份）都是沉重的負擔，史蒂文斯說，

Construction is not coming back there for a long time.

這裏的建築活動很長一段時間都不會恢復。

Most analysts believe that the short-term consequence of a serious debt-reduction push by the government and a more sluggish real estate sector will be sharply lower growth in the fourth quarter and early next year — potentially below Beijing’s current comfort level of 6.5 per cent.

多數分析人士認爲，政府推動的大力縮減債務以及更加低迷的房地產行業在短期內將造成第四季度和明年初經濟增速大幅下滑，很可能低於北京當前認爲適宜的6.5%的水平。

With a critical leadership transition due at the end of next year, sceptics suspect that the government will simply reopen the credit taps, starting the cycle all over again.

鑑於明年年底將進行關鍵的領導層換屆，懷疑者認爲，政府將直接重開信貸閘門，再次開啓這一循環。

Government officials argue that their approach buys time for difficult structural reforms to take root and new economic growth engines to emerge.

政府官員辯稱，他們採取的方式有利於爲開展艱難的結構性改革以及創造新的經濟增長引擎爭取時間。

They may be proved right.

事實可能證明他們是正確的。

But with economic growth continuing to ratchet down — 6.9 per cent in 2015, 6.7 per cent so far this year — they have less room for manoeuvre with each quarter that passes.

但隨着經濟增速一路下滑——2015年是6.9%，今年迄今是6.7%——每過去一個季度，他們的迴旋餘地就變得更少。