中國"新生代"的老年人未來前景較令人欣慰

The findings of China’s first major study on the lives of the nation’s 185 million elderly make for gloomy reading. The results of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study show 22.9% of Chinese over 60 live in poverty, 38.1% have difficulty completing daily activities on their own, and 40% show high symptoms of depression.

對中國1.85億老年人的生活狀況進行的首次大規模調查發現，這些老年人的生存狀況令人沮喪。這項名爲中國健康與養老追蹤調查的研究顯示，60歲以上的中國人中22.9%的人生活貧困，38.1%的人在日常行動方面存在困難，40%的人表現出高度的抑鬱症症狀。

But speaking at the launch in Beijing on Friday, the leaders of the study ─ based on a nation-wide survey of 17,708 individuals, and completed with the help of top academics from around the world ─ said it’s not all bad news.

但牽頭進行這項研究的人士上週五在北京宣佈調查結果時也表示，調查得到的並非都是壞消息。這項研究是基於對全國範圍內17,708名個人的調查進行的，並在世界各地一系列一流學者的幫助下得以完成。

One important factor in the disabilities and depression suffered by many of China’s elderly is trauma experienced in early life: Chinese people over 60 grew up with famine in the 1950s and the tumult of the Cultural Revolution, and that leaves a mark.

導致中國許多老年人出現身心障礙和精神抑鬱的一個重要因素是他們早年經歷的生活創傷。中國60歲以上人口都經歷過上世紀50年代的饑荒以及文化大革命的動亂，這些都在他們的生活中留下了印記。

Today’s working-age population enjoyed far less traumatic childhoods. They also have higher incomes than their parents did, thanks to greater participation in China’s 30-year economic boom. Both factors mean their old age should be better than that of their parents, says John Strauss, a professor at the University of Southern California and one of the heads of the study.

當今中國的工作年齡人口在童年經歷的傷痛要比前人少得多。由於對中國這30年來的經濟快速增長有更高的參與度，這些人的收入也比自己的父輩要高。這項研究的負責人之一、美國南加州大學(University of Southern California)教授施特勞斯(John Strauss)說，這兩個因素意味着，目前工作年齡人口的晚年生活應該比父輩那一代人要好。

China’s poverty levels for the elderly look high relative to the U.S., where the Census Bureau reports that 8.7% of those over 65 live below the poverty line. But higher incomes for the elderly in the U.S. are still financed by large-scale public transfers from the working-age population. Mr. Strauss says that has costs too. It’s possible to argue “that from a social welfare point of view, the aged in the U.S. get far too much in the way of transfers from the young and middle-aged,” he said.

中國老年人口的貧困率看來比美國要高。美國人口普查局(Census Bureau)的數據顯示，美國65歲以上老年人口的貧困率爲8.7%。但美國老年人口收入較高的一個原因是政府將得自工作年齡人口的資金向老年人進行了大規模的公共財政轉移。施特勞斯說，這種做法也是有代價的。從社會福利的角度出發或許可以認爲，美國老年人接納轉移自年輕人和中年人的公共財政太多了。

A shrinking workforce and higher costs of care as China’s population ages have raised fears about slowing growth. But there’s still time to head off those problems, says Yaohui Zhao, a professor at Peking University who led the survey. Policies that support healthy aging would mitigate the impact on growth, for example by allowing people to work for longer, said Ms. Zhao.

隨着中國人口的老齡化，中國勞動年齡人口的規模在縮減，而全社會的醫療費用支出在增加，這讓人擔心中國經濟會不斷放慢增長速度。但上述調查的牽頭人、北京大學教授趙耀輝說，中國仍然有時間阻止這些問題出現。她說，政府支持健康的社會老齡化的政策將會減緩這些問題對經濟增長的影響，比如說，政府可以延長退休年齡。