尼泊爾地震2500萬年前已註定

More than 25 million years ago, India, once a separate island on a quickly sliding piece of the Earth’s crust, crashed into Asia. The two land masses are still colliding, pushed together at a speed of 1.5 to 2 inches a year. The forces have pushed up the highest mountains in the world, in the Himalayas, and have set off devastating earthquakes.

2500多萬年前，印度還是一個快速滑動的板塊上的獨立島嶼，它與亞洲大陸發生了碰撞。這兩個板塊仍在繼續相撞，每年以1.5到2英寸（約合3.81釐米）的速度相互擠壓。這些力量令喜馬拉雅山脈形成世界最高的山峯，並引發災難性的地震。

Experts had warned of the danger to the people of Katmandu for decades. The death toll in Nepal on Saturday was practically inevitable given the tectonics, the local geology that made the shaking worse and the lax construction of buildings that could not withstand the shaking.

數十年來，專家一直警告加德滿都人民要注意這種危險。鑑於地質構造、令地震震動加劇的地質情況，以及建築物的構造不嚴謹、抗震能力差，尼泊爾在週六出現的慘重傷亡實際上是不可避免的。

GeoHazards International, a nonprofit organization in Menlo Park, Calif., that tries to help poorer, more vulnerable regions like Nepal prepare for disasters, had noted that major earthquakes struck that region about every 75 years.

設在加州門洛帕克的非營利組織國際地質災難協會(GeoHazards International)是一家試圖幫尼泊爾等較爲貧窮、脆弱的地區爲應對災難做準備的機構。該機構指出，每隔75年，這裏就會發生一次大地震。

In 1934 — 81 years ago — more than 10,000 people died in a magnitude 8.1 earthquake in eastern Nepal, about six miles south of Mount Everest. A smaller quake in 1988 with a magnitude of 6.8 killed more than 1,000 people.

81年前的1934年，在尼泊爾東部距離珠峯大約6英里（約合10公里）的地方發生8.1級地震，共有1萬餘人喪生。1988年，共有逾1000人在一次規模較小的6.8級地震中喪生。

Brian Tucker, president and founder of GeoHazards, said that in the 1990s, his organization predicted that if the 1934 quake were to happen again, 40,000 people would die because of migration to the city where tall, flimsily built buildings would collapse.

國際地質災難協會的總裁兼創始人布萊恩·塔克(Brian Tucker)說，上世紀90年代，他所在的組織曾預測，倘若1934年的地震再次發生，就會造成4萬人死亡——這是因爲人口在向這座城市遷移，高大而脆弱的建築物將會坍塌。

In an update just this month, GeoHazards wrote, “With an annual population growth rate of 6.5 percent and one of the highest urban densities in the world, the 1.5 million people living in the Katmandu Valley were clearly facing a serious and growing earthquake risk.”

國際地質災難協會在本月的更新信息中寫道，“這裏的年均人口增長率爲6.5%，而且城市密度位於世界最高之列；在這種情況下，住在加德滿都谷的150萬人明顯面臨着嚴重而且越來越大的地震風險。”

The organization helped set up a local nonprofit to continue preparations, including the reinforcement of schools and hospitals.

該組織協助成立了一個本地非營利組織，以繼續進行準備工作，其中包括學校和醫院的加固。

Saturday’s earthquake occurred to the northwest of Katmandu at a relatively shallow depth, about nine miles, which caused greater shaking at the surface, but at magnitude 7.8, it released less energy than the 1934 quake.

週六的地震發生在加德滿都西北地區，震源相對較淺，約爲9英里，所以地表的震動更加強烈。但是由於震級爲7.8級，所以釋放的能量比1934年的少。

Roger Bilham, a professor of geological sciences at the University of Colorado who has studied the history of earthquakes in that region, said that the shaking lasted one to two minutes, and the fault slipped about 10 feet along the rupture zone, which stretched 75 miles, passing under Katmandu.

科羅拉多大學(University of Colorado)地質學教授羅傑·比爾漢姆(Roger Bilham)曾研究過該地區的地震歷史，他說，震動持續了一到兩分鐘，斷層沿着斷裂帶滑動了約10英尺，斷裂帶長達75英里，從加德滿都穿過。

The earthquake “translated the whole city southward by 10 feet,” Dr. Bilham said.

這場地震“讓整個城市向南移動了10英尺”，比爾漢姆博士說。

Aftershocks as large as magnitude 6.6 have occurred mostly to the northeast of Katmandu.

最高達6.6級的餘震多數發生在加德滿都的東北部。

It is possible that the Saturday quake is a preface to an even larger one, but Dr. Bilham said that was unlikely.

週六的地震有可能只是更大地震的前奏，但比爾漢姆說可能性並不大。

Katmandu and the surrounding valley sit on an ancient dried-up lake bed, which contributed to the devastation. “Very, very soft soil, and the soft soil amplifies seismic motion,” Dr. Tucker said.

加德滿都和周圍的山谷坐落在一個古老而乾涸的湖牀上，這也是該地區在地震中受到嚴重損毀的原因之一。“非常非常軟的土壤，鬆軟的土壤放大了震動，”塔克博士說。

Steep slopes in the area are also prone to avalanches like the one that the quake triggered on Mount Everest on Saturday.

該地區的陡峭山坡也很容易發生雪崩，就像週六的地震在珠穆朗瑪峯上引發的雪崩一樣。

Katmandu is not the only place where a deadly earthquake has been expected.

並非只有加德滿都預計會發生致人死亡的地震。

Dr. Tucker said Tehran; Haiti; Lima, Peru; and Padang, Indonesia, were similarly vulnerable. In those places, nearby tectonic faults are under strain, and building standards and disaster preparations are seen as inadequate.

塔克說，德黑蘭、海地、祕魯利馬，以及印度尼西亞巴東同樣容易發生地震。這些地方附近的構造斷層都處在緊張狀態，但建築標準和災難預防則似乎不夠充分。

But not everywhere has been complacent. Over the past 76 years, many earthquakes have occurred along a fault in northern Turkey, starting in the eastern part of the country and progressing west, toward Istanbul. An earthquake in 1999 killed more than 17,000 people, mostly in the city of Izmit, east of Istanbul. The expectation is that the epicenter of the next big earthquake will be in or around Istanbul.

不過，並非所有地方都這樣麻痹大意。過去76年，土耳其北部的一個斷層附近發生了許多地震，該斷層從該國的東部開始，朝着伊斯坦布爾的方向，向西部延伸。1999年的一場地震曾導致超過1.7萬人遇難，多數遇難者位於伊斯坦布爾東部的伊茲米特市。人們的預期是，下一次大地震的震中將在伊斯坦布爾或其周圍。

“Istanbul is the place that has been most aggressive in enforcing building codes,” Dr. Tucker said. “I think Istanbul has been doing a good job.”

“伊斯坦布爾是執行建築規範最積極的地方，”塔克說。“我認爲伊斯坦布爾做得很不錯。”