我國勞動力5年減少2千萬 2050年或降到7億左右

China's working-age Population is expected to continue to decline in 2016 after 20 million stepped out of the market in the past five years, according to an expert.

一位專家近日表示，過去5年間我國勞動年齡人口減少了2000萬，2016年這一下降趨勢還將繼續。

The shortage of workforce means an increase in Labor costs, industrial transfer and that technology will substitute workers, said Zeng Xiangquan, head of the school of human resources at Renmin University.

人民大學勞動人事學院院長曾湘泉指出，勞動力短缺意味着人工成本上升、產業轉移和技術替代勞動力。

University graduates account for nearly half of the labor force entering the market, making a fundamental change in the quality and structure of the workforce, said Zhang Chewei, head of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

中國社會科學院人口與勞動經濟研究所所長張車偉表示，大學畢業生大約佔進入市場的勞動力的一半，這使得勞動力的質量和結構發生了根本性的變化。

The market is unable to provide traditional industries with the required number of workforce and the past high-input economic development mode is unsustainable, Zhang said.

張車偉稱，現在的市場無法提供傳統行業所需的勞動力人口，並且過去高投入的經濟發展模式是不可持續的。

The country's working-age population of between 15 to 59 years old peaked at 925 million in 2011 and has fallen every year since then, with 3.45 million fall in 2012, 2.44 million in 2013, 3.71 million in 2014 and a 4.87 million drop in 2015.

我國15-59歲勞動年齡人口在2011年達到9.25億的峯值，此後開始逐年下降。2012年減少345萬，2013年減少244萬，2014年減少371萬，2015年減少487萬。

Zeng forecasts 2016 will see a drop in the labor population leveling up or even bigger than the decrease in 2015.

曾湘泉預測，2016年勞動年齡人口的降幅將與2015年持平或更大。

The working-age population is expected to see a sharp drop from 830 million in 2030 to 700 million in 2050 at a declining speed of 7.6 million every year, said Li Zhong, a spokesman for the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, in July.

今年7月，人社部新聞發言人李忠曾表示，2030年-2050年，我國勞動年齡人口預計將以每年760萬的速度減少，由2030年的8.3億大幅降至2050年的7億。