建立帝國不容易 俄羅斯將承受更多經濟之痛

Russia is finding that empire building can be a painful business.

俄羅斯正發現，建立帝國是一件痛苦的事情。

The economy was already slipping before the whole Ukrainian crisis hit. Now it's being battered even more. A weakening currency has pushed up inflation, triggering yet another central bank rate hike. At the same time sanctions, sharply tightening credit conditions and capital outflows are pushing Russia into recession.

相關閱讀專題：烏克蘭危機在烏克蘭危機全面爆發前，俄羅斯經濟就已處在滑坡中，目前的情形更是雪上加霜。盧布的不斷走軟推升了俄羅斯通貨膨脹，促使該國央行再度加息。與此同時，西方國家實施的制裁、信貸條件的大幅收緊以及資本的外流正將俄羅斯推向衰退深淵。

Standard & Poor's cut Russia's credit rating to one notch above junk on Friday morning citing concerns about capital outflows. The ruble, which had already been suffering with other emerging market currencies on the global liquidity implications about the Federal Reserve's decision to trim its asset purchase program, started losing ground heavily once Ukrainian tensions bubbled up earlier this year. Russian's involvement--its annexation of Crimea and the threat of doing the same with Ukraine's Russian-speaking east and south--triggered western sanctions. These, in turn, accelerated domestic nervousness about the economy, speeding capital flight.

標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)週五以擔憂資本外流爲由將俄羅斯信用評級下調至僅較垃圾級高一檔的水平。美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)收縮資產購買計劃的決定對全球流動性的影響已經令盧布等新興市場貨幣承壓，而在今年早些時候烏克蘭緊張局勢升級後，盧布更是開始大幅走低。俄羅斯對克里米亞的吞併以及對烏克蘭其他俄羅斯族裔聚集地區的虎視眈眈已促使西方對其實施制裁。這進而又加重了俄羅斯國內民衆對本國經濟的不安，加劇了資本外流。

The Russian central bank responded by putting up its key interest rate to 7% from 5.5% in March, in what was originally meant to be a temporary measure, to be unwound by the summer. But on Friday it hiked again, to 7.5%, and made clear higher rates were no longer temporary.

爲抑制資本流出，俄羅斯央行在今年3月份將基準利率由5.5%上調至7%。這原本應是一項臨時性舉措，按計劃會在夏季結束前解除。但週五，該行再度加息，將利率調高至7.5%，同時明確表示加息不再是臨時之舉。這將成爲已舉步維艱的俄羅斯經濟面臨的一個嚴重問題。

That'll be a significant problem for an economy already struggling to grow. Between 2000 and the financial crisis, the Russian economy expanded an average of 7% a year. It rebounded smartly after a hefty decline in 2008, but by 2013, it only grew 1.3%. And it appears to have contracted in the first quarter, according to estimates by Capital Economics, a London-based consultancy. Russia's manufacturing purchasing managers' index pointed to contraction for the fifth successive month in April, while the composite index, which includes both services and manufacturing dropped to a 58-month low.

2000年至金融危機爆發前，俄羅斯經濟年均增長率爲7%。在2008年經濟增速急劇放緩後曾大幅反彈，但2013年僅增長1.3%。據倫敦諮詢機構凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)預測，第一季度俄羅斯經濟有所萎縮。4月份俄羅斯製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)連續第五個月顯示行業活動收縮，與此同時，包括服務業和製造業的綜合PMI降至58個月低點。

Coupled with expectations Russia will be further isolated on the international state, with the possibility of more and wider sanctions, it's no wonder capital outflows are accelerating. The Russian central bank estimates outflows of more than $50 billion during the first three months of the year, the largest quarterly total since the depth of the financial crisis.

再考慮到西方可能對俄羅斯實施更多、更廣泛的制裁，從而使後者在國際上進一步被孤立，資本流出俄羅斯的速度無疑會加快。俄羅斯央行估計，今年第一季度資本流出該國的規模超過500億美元，爲金融危機高峯以來資本外流規模最大的一個季度。

This outflow has registered in Russia's asset markets--Russian equities are down some 22% in dollar terms since the start of the year.

資本外流的影響已經在俄羅斯資產市場得到體現。以美元計算，俄羅斯股市今年以來累計下跌約22%。

There's a complex, symbiotic relationship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the country's oligarchs. He might be their patron and protector. But as they find their wealth and privileges eroded by sanctions, Mr. Putin could yet find himself thrown into the position of England's King John facing the barons at Runnymede, where the king's once unlimited powers were curtailed by the Magna Carta. Alternatively, Russia could slip further into Soviet-style repression.

俄羅斯總統普京(Vladimir Putin)與該國政治寡頭之間存在複雜的共生關係。普京可能是這些政治寡頭的保護者。不過，隨着這些政治寡頭髮現自己的財富和特權被制裁舉措侵蝕，普京可能面臨當初英國國王約翰(John)在蘭尼米德遇到的局面，約翰在當地迫於貴族的壓力簽署了《大憲章》(Magna Carta)，使自身曾經巨大無比的權力受到限制。但也可能出現的另一種情況是，俄羅斯進一步轉向蘇聯時期那種高壓管制模式。