美國總統選舉啓示 如何應對民主的困境
Times are tough for liberal internationalists who believe in a combination of democracy, market economy and globalisation.
對於相信民主、市場經濟和全球化的自由國際主義者來說，眼下的日子不好過。
The ideology, faults and all, has proved its worth, but its defenders seem to have gone into hibernation.
這種意識形態——無論功過是非——已證明了它的價值，但它的衛士似乎已進入冬眠。
Europe and North America are still by far the most prosperous continents.
歐洲和北美仍是遙遙領先的最繁榮的兩個大陸。
The combination of free trade and enterprise has lifted millions of people out of poverty over the past decades.
自由貿易與企業的組合在過去幾十年讓數百萬人擺脫了貧困。
Yet, attacks on such a system are coming from all directions.
然而，這套體系現在遭受着各個方向的攻擊。
Illiberal and protectionist European governments are commonplace.
保護主義和反自由主義的政府在歐洲已經相當常見。
Britain is leaving the EU and the Wallonian parliament wanted to block a free trade agreement with Canada.
英國將要脫離歐盟，比利時瓦隆大區的議會一度想要阻止歐盟與加拿大之間的自由貿易協定。
The US presidential election symbolises everything that can be vulgar in democratic discourse.
美國總統選舉象徵着民主話語中一切粗俗的東西。
Civility and substance have given way to insult and personal attack.
文明辯論和實質議題已讓位於侮辱和人身攻擊。
When the US election becomes PG-rated, we know democracy is in trouble.
當美國大選變成PG輔導級時，我們知道民主有麻煩了。
Populists and nationalists are gaining ground.
民粹主義者和民族主義者正在擡頭。
The asylum crisis in Europe has led to an avalanche of racist and xenophobic movements that make the Austrian Freedom party of the late 1990s look like an international kindergarten.
歐洲難民危機引發了層出不窮的種族主義和仇外運動，使得上世紀90年代末的奧地利自由黨(Freedom Party of Austria)相比之下像一所國際幼兒園。
Donald Trump’s wall against Mexico would be a sick joke if he was not for real.
唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)說要對墨西哥豎起圍牆，這聽上去像是個病態的玩笑——如果他不是當真的話。
The leaders of authoritarian regimes must be looking at all this with schadenfreude.
威權政府的領導人肯定在幸災樂禍地看着這一切。
But should we lose hope and succumb to a new authoritarian, protectionist and nationalist world order? No — but resisting it will not be easy.
但是，我們應該失去希望，向一個威權的、保護主義和民族主義的世界新秩序低頭嗎？不，但抵制它並不容易，
Here are three reasons why.
原因有三點。
First, populist and nationalist movements can be short lived, but this depends on how you deal with them.
首先，民粹主義和民族主義運動可能是短暫的，但這取決於你如何對待它們。
During the interwar period, European leaders allowed nationalist movements to emerge.
兩次世界大戰期間，歐洲領導人曾放縱民族主義運動涌現，
The reaction was too little and too late.
他們的反制行動太少也太晚，
The consequences were dire.
釀成了災難性後果。
The litmus test for the moderate centre in 2016 is how it treats the current populist movements.
對2016年的溫和中間派來說，關鍵考驗是如何應對當前的民粹主義運動。
Finland, for example, has chosen to give the rightwing True Finns responsibility in government.
芬蘭已選擇將一部分政府職責交由右翼的正統芬蘭人黨(True Finns)。
With power come difficult decisions, and as a consequence, policies of immigration, austerity and bailouts have halved the party’s popularity.
權力伴隨着棘手決策，其後果是，移民、緊縮以及紓困政策導致該黨人氣減半。
Others, such as Sweden, have chosen to keep the Sweden Democrats outside government — and have seen their support soar since the 2014 election.
其他國家，比如瑞典，選擇將瑞典民主黨(Sweden Democrats)擋在政府門外，結果自2014年大選以來該黨人氣飆升。
There is probably no single solution to every European country’s problems, but one thing is for sure: you have to listen to and engage with the populist movements before it is too late.
歐洲各國的問題很可能沒有單一的解決方案，但有一點是肯定的：你必須去傾聽、去接觸民粹主義運動，以免爲時過晚。
Second, market economies have a tendency to bounce back.
第二，市場經濟有反彈傾向。
And when they do, the pressure on democratic governance deflates.
而當市場經濟果真反彈時，民主治理的壓力就會減小，
There is less of a need to vent frustrations on ruling governments and seek solutions from extremes, be they from the right or the left.
人們將不再覺得有必要向現政府發泄不滿，或者寄望極端勢力（無論是極右還是極左）提供出路。
There are some who contest the link between economic growth and responsible democracy.
有些人質疑經濟增長與負責任的民主政體之間的聯繫。
Many governments were toppled in the aftermath of the financial crisis that began in 2008.
始於2008年的金融危機掀翻了許多政府，
Yet others showed resilience.
但其他國家展現了韌性。
With eight years of government experience I can say that life in politics is a lot easier when the economy is growing.
憑藉八年的執政經驗，我敢說當經濟增長時，政治生涯會容易許多。
Europe might be facing an extended period of low growth, but probably nothing as severe as we saw in the 2008 crisis.
歐洲可能面臨長期的低增長，但很可能沒有我們在2008年金融危機中見到的那麼嚴重。
The question is how this growth is shared out in welfare states.
問題在於如何在福利國家體制下分享這種增長？
Will the distribution be perceived as fair or unfair by those who have been told of the virtues of global capitalism?
那些一直被告知全球資本主義優越性的人將如何看待這種分配，他們會覺得公平還是不公？
Third, technological development will accelerate globalisation.
第三，科技發展將加速全球化。
Politicians and policymakers must understand the impact of the fourth industrial revolution — artificial intelligence, robotics, the internet of things, 3D-printing and digitalisation.
政治人士和政策制定者必須對第四次工業革命——人工智能、機器人、物聯網、3D打印和數字化——的影響有所認知。
It will disrupt everything from labour markets to trade relations.
這場革命將對從勞動力市場到貿易關係的一切方面造成擾亂。
The good news is that technology will make the life of authoritarian regimes more difficult (save surveillance).
好消息是科技將令威權政府的日子更加難過（除了監視）。
A smartphone in the hand of everyone around the world becomes a powerful tool against any centralisation of government.
世界各國人手一部的智能手機成爲反抗政府集權的強大工具。
The bad news is that the new machine age will wipe out vast swaths of both white- and blue-collar jobs — everything from taxi and bus drivers to X-ray specialists and market analysts.
壞消息是新的機器時代將淘汰大批藍領和白領工作——從出租車和公共汽車司機，到X光專家和市場分析師。
The challenge for legislators is how to cope with this radical shift in the labour market.
立法者的挑戰是如何應對勞動市場的這種根本性轉變。
Liberal internationalists should not lose faith.
自由國際主義者不應失去信心。
At the end of the day it is a question of how we adapt to change and whether we have the courage to defend freedom and democracy.
歸根到底，最終問題是我們要如何適應變化，以及我們是否有勇氣去捍衛自由和民主。
In the cacophony coming from social and mainstream media this will not be easy.
在社交媒體和主流媒體制造的喧囂噪音中，想做到這點並不容易。
The desire to go with the perceived flow is tempting.
隨波逐流的願望是誘人的。
I believe human beings are rational; we are able to figure out what is best for us.
我相信人類是理性的，我們能夠弄懂什麼對自己最好。
If history is anything to go by, authoritarian rule, protectionism and nationalism will fail in the long run.
如果歷史經驗還靠得住的話，威權統治、保護主義和民族主義長期而言必將失敗，
But in the short run they can do a lot of damage.
但短期內它們可能造成很大傷害。
Democracy, the market economy and globalisation are worth defending.
民主、市場經濟和全球化值得捍衛。
To survive they must adapt to a world revolution happening faster than any before.
要生存下來，它們必須適應一場比以往更迅速的全球革命。
