美國選民準備中期選舉投票

A sharply divided U.S. electorate is voting Tuesday to elect a new Congress and to render a midterm verdict on President Donald Trump. The results could shift the balance of power in Washington and alter the next two years of Trump's presidency.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are at stake Tuesday, plus 35 of the 100 U.S. Senate seats and 36 of the 50 state governorships.

Public opinion polls and analysts suggest that opposition Democrats have an advantage in the battle for control of the House of Representatives. Democrats are favored to win more House seats than they currently have and they need an overall gain of 23 to retake the House majority.

Republicans are counting on President Trump to rally his supporters to help maintain their narrow 51 to 49 seat edge in the Senate. Of the 35 Senate seats at stake Tuesday, Democrats hold 26 and Republicans hold nine.

Immigration focus

Democrats are trying to hold 10 Senate seats in states where Trump prevailed in the 2016 election, including Tennessee.

Trump blasted Democrats over immigration during a recent rally in Chattanooga.

"Democrats want to invite caravan after caravan of illegal aliens to pour into our country. I don't think so," Trump said, invoking images of the caravan of Central American migrants moving through Mexico. "No nation can allow its borders to be overrun. And that is an invasion. I don't care what they say. I don't care what the fake media says. That is an invasion of our country."

Democrats are getting some high-profile campaigners to help them including former President Barack Obama, who rallied voters in his home state of Illinois and told them Trump's deployment of U.S. troops to the border in response to the caravan was a "political stunt."

Early turnout has been huge in several states, especially for a midterm election when total voter turnout often struggles to reach 40 percent of eligible voters.

Trump a central issue

Polls show Democrats are most concerned with health care and the economy, with Republicans focused on immigration.

But Brookings Institution expert John Hudak said it is also clear that Trump is a major issue for both parties this year.

"This is a president who wants this midterm to be a referendum on him, largely because he thinks his own popularity is so great that it will carry Republicans across the finish line," Hudak said.

But Trump is not only battling Democrats in this year's election, he is also battling history.

"The big picture is that midterm elections go against the president's party," noted John Fortier of the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington. "I think there will be no difference here. The Democrats will do quite well in the House of Representatives, in the governorships and state legislatures."

University of Virginia analyst Kyle Kondik notes that in the 29 congressional midterm elections held since 1900, the president's party has lost House seats in all but three — 1934, 1998 and 2002.

Will Democrats turn out?

Historically, though, Republicans are more reliable voters in midterm elections.

Gallup pollster Frank Newport said that puts pressure on Democrats to make sure their supporters get out and vote.

"Under the expectation that Republican voters typically are more likely to turn out, can Democrats energize people who identify with the Democratic Party to turn out and vote for their candidates?" Newport said.

If Democrats win enough House seats to reclaim the majority, Trump would face a shift in the balance of power in Washington.

Democrats are hoping for a wave election that would bring them control of the House and gubernatorial victories in key states like Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Republicans are counting on Trump's frenetic campaign pace in the final days to help them retain or even expand their narrow Senate majority.意見反差巨大的美國選民11月6日星期二將投票選出新一屆國會，同時對特朗普總統的執政做出中期評判。選舉結果可能會改變華盛頓的權力平衡，影響到特朗普總統未來兩年的執政。

國會所有的435個衆議院席位和參議院100個席位當中的35個要改選，全美50州有36個舉行州長選舉。

民意調查顯示民主黨在爭奪衆議院控制權的競爭中佔有優勢。人們看好民主黨會贏得更多衆議院席位。他們需要增加23個席位就能成爲衆議院多數派。

共和黨寄希望於特朗普總統的助選能幫助他們保持參議院51席比49席的微弱優勢。面臨中期選舉改選的35個席位中，民主黨人佔有26席，共和黨人佔9席。

聚焦移民問題

在特朗普2016年贏得勝利的10個州，包括田納西州，民主黨要努力保住他們的聯邦參議員席位。

特朗普總統最近在田納西州查塔努加的一次集會上抨擊了民主黨的移民立場。

他說：“民主黨人想邀請一批又一批的移民大軍涌進我們的國家。我堅決不同意。沒有任何國家會允許自己的邊界被踐踏。這是入侵。我不在乎他們說什麼。我不在乎假新聞說什麼。這是對我們國家的入侵。”

民主黨陣營有包括前總統奧巴馬在內的一些知名人士助選。奧巴馬在他的家鄉伊利諾伊的集會上告訴選民，特朗普爲阻止移民大軍向邊界部署軍隊是“政治把戲”。

有幾個州的提前投票人數衆多，尤其在一般投票人數很難達到40%的中期選舉。

特朗普是話題中心

民調顯示民主黨最關心的是醫保和經濟，共和黨人則關注移民問題。

不過布魯金斯研究所專家約翰·胡達克指出，很明顯兩黨選民今年也看重特朗普總統。 他說：“這是一個想要把中期選舉當作對他投票的總統，很大程度上因爲他認爲自己很受歡迎，一定會帶着共和黨人衝過終點線。”

特朗普總統在今年的選舉中不僅在與民主黨競爭，也要頂着歷史潮流。華盛頓的兩黨政策中心專家約翰·福爾提埃爾說：“總體來說中期選舉對總統的政黨不利。我認爲這次不會例外。民主黨在衆議院、州長和州議會選舉中都會表現很好。”

維吉尼亞大學分析人士凱爾·康迪克指出，自1900年以來的29次中期選舉中，除了1934年、1998年和2002年，所有的中期選舉中總統的政黨都丟失了一些衆議院席位。

民主黨人會出來投票嗎

不過從歷史來看在中期選舉中共和黨人會更積極參與投票。

蓋洛普民調專家弗蘭克·紐波特說，這對民主黨人造成了壓力，必須確保他們的支持者出來投票。

紐波特說：“在共和黨人更有可能參加投票的情況之下，民主黨人是否能調動支持者的積極性出來爲他們的候選人投下一票呢？”

如果民主黨能夠獲得足夠席位奪回衆議院多數，特朗普總統必須面對一個權力平衡改變的華盛頓。

民主黨希望這是一次有重大改變的選舉，讓他們奪回衆議院控制權，以及獲得佛羅里達、俄亥俄和威斯康辛這些重要州的州長選舉勝利。

共和黨希望特朗普總統在最後階段馬不停蹄的助選活動能幫助他們維持甚至擴大在參議院的多數地位。