俄羅斯拯救經濟方案被批不治本

MoSCOW — With oil prices down more than 50 percent in the past year, the ruble having lost more than half its value, a recession looming and the country already dipping into its rainy-day funds, the Russian economy is in a race against time. But one would be hard pressed to grasp the depth of the troubles from the Kremlin’s prescriptions.

莫斯科——石油價格在過去一年暴跌了逾50%，盧布貶值過半，經濟衰退的風險迫在眉睫，政府已經動用了應急資金，俄羅斯的經濟正在與時間賽跑。不過，從克里姆林宮的描述中，人們卻很難了解俄羅斯陷入困境的程度到底有多深。

Anton Siluanov, the finance minister, laid out the government’s long-promised “anti-crisis” package in a live broadcast on state television last week, a laundry list of half-measures and a vague promise of a 10 percent budget cut that economists almost unanimously dismissed as inadequate.

上週，在官方電視臺直播的發佈會上，財政部長安東·西盧阿諾夫(Anton Siluanov)闡述了政府承諾已久的“應對危機”的一攬子方案。他提出了一系列不徹底的折中辦法，並做出了將預算削減10%的模糊承諾。經濟學家幾乎一致認爲，這一削減幅度根本不夠。

“That plan is nonsense,” the Russian oligarch Aleksandr Y. Lebedev said in an interview, describing it as throwing away money to rescue some of Russia’s worst companies. “Lots of words and little specific.”

“這套方案毫無價值，”俄羅斯寡頭亞歷山大·Y·列別捷夫(Alexander Y. Lebedev)接受採訪時稱。他認爲該方案就是爲拯救一些最差勁的公司而白白浪費錢。“大話挺多，具體內容幾乎沒有。”

President Vladimir V. Putin weighed in briefly, repeating that along with keeping tight control over government finances, “We need to change our economy’s structure.”

俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)在直播中短暫地露面。他重申了這一方案，並表示將繼續對政府財政實行嚴格掌控，“我們需要改變國家的經濟結構。”

Yet a wide array of business owners, economists and former senior government officials said in interviews that they expected the Kremlin to react to the crisis the way it had in 2008, the last time it faced a precipitous decline in oil prices — with disaster management, but no fundamental changes.

然而，許多企業所有者、經濟學家和前高級政府官員在接受採訪時表示，預計克里姆林宮會以2008年面對上一輪油價暴跌時的方式來應對這場危機——只有災害管理，沒有徹底的改革。

“They are trying to get by, manage it strategically and hope that oil prices rise, hope they can make a few adjustments and it will all go away,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University who recently attended a high-level economics conference in Moscow. “There is no appetite for fundamental reform. They are just going to wait.”

“他們就是得過且過，用策略管理危機，指望油價上漲，希望只需要做出小幅調整，所有麻煩就都會消失，”哈佛大學(Harvard University)經濟學教授肯尼斯·S·羅格夫(Kenneth S. Rogoff)說。他不久前在莫斯科參加了一次高級別的經濟會議。“他們沒有興趣實施徹底的改革，就打算這麼拖着。”

The Damoclean sword hanging over the economy is whether $385 billion in government reserves will run dry before oil prices rise. Mr. Rogoff, a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, noted that governments habitually underestimate how fast they will go through their financial reserves when they race to bail out banks, save major state corporations and douse flames throughout an ailing economy.

懸在俄羅斯經濟上方的達摩克利斯之劍是，政府的3850億美元（約合2.4萬億元人民幣）儲備金是否會在油價回升之前枯竭。曾在國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)擔任首席經濟學家的羅格夫指出，當政府急於援助銀行、拯救大型國有企業並在陷入困境的經濟中到處救火時，它們會習慣性地低估消耗財政儲備資金的速度。

Measures detailed in the plan or pledged earlier include more than $22 billion to shore up banks and major state companies, including roughly $8 billion from the rainy-day Russian National Wealth Fund.

西盧阿諾夫提出的方案中列出的措施以及此前承諾的項目包括，動用逾220億美元來支持銀行和大型國有企業，其中包括來自應急的俄羅斯國家財富基金(Russian National Wealth Fund)的大約80億美元。

The plan protected two of Mr. Putin’s most important constituencies — older Russians and the security establishment. It earmarked more than $2.7 billion to peg pensions closer to the inflation rate, which mushroomed to 11.4 percent last year and is expected to be at least as high in 2015. No cuts were announced in military spending.

該方案保護了普京的兩個最重要的支持者羣體——老年人和安全機構。將有超過27億美元的資金用於使養老金的增長保持在與通脹率更接近的水平上。俄羅斯的通脹率去年激增至11.4%，預計2015年至少也會達到同樣的水平。方案中沒有宣佈削減軍事支出。

The government appropriated roughly $700 million for agricultural aid. That is meant to help Russian farmers increase production, because prices soared after the Kremlin barred a host of food imports from the West in retaliation for economic sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States over the annexation of Crimea and Mr. Putin’s actions in eastern Ukraine. Food prices over all climbed more than 15 percent last year, with some staples like sugar up 40 percent.

政府還撥出了約7億美元用於農業援助。這是爲了幫助俄羅斯務農者增產，因爲在克里姆林宮大規模禁止來自西方的進口食品之後，農產品價格大幅上漲。由於俄羅斯對克里米亞的吞併以及普京在烏克蘭東部的行動，歐盟和美國實施了經濟制裁，而俄羅斯政府針對西方進口食品的禁令就是爲了對制裁進行報復。去年，俄羅斯的食品價格整體上漲了逾15%，糖等大宗商品的價格飆升了40%。

Even members of Parliament complained last week that a bowl of porridge in their cafeteria had jumped to 53 rubles, from 20 last year.

就連一些俄羅斯議員上週也抱怨，在他們用餐的食堂，一碗粥的價格從去年的20盧布（約合1.8元人民幣）漲到了53盧布。

Russia’s economy is expected to contract at least 4 percent in 2015. While the government holds very little foreign debt, private companies, including some at the very core of the state-dominated economy, have more than $100 billion in loans coming due this year. Most of that is owed to Western banks and will be hard to refinance because of economic sanctions.

2015年，俄羅斯經濟預計至少會衰退4%。儘管政府手裏的外債極少，但私營企業，包括在由國家主導的俄羅斯經濟中處於核心位置的一些公司，有1000多億美元的貸款將於今年到期。其中大部分借自西方銀行，並且因爲經濟制裁將難以再融資。

The Kremlin’s response combines confidence that oil prices will rebound soon with official bravado that Russians will endure any hardship, including eating less, for the motherland.

克里姆林宮的應對策略是，一方面相信石油價格很快便會回升，同時官方虛張聲勢地表示，俄羅斯民衆將爲了祖國忍受一切困難，包括少吃。

The first part of the anti-crisis plan is also aimed at supporting strategic targets like exports and high-tech manufacturing. But no specific steps were included.

在這套應對危機的方案中，第一部分還致力於扶持出口及高科技製造業等戰略對象，但並未提及具體步驟。

“You never hear the details of what structural change means,” said Konstantin V. Remchukov, the editor in chief of Nezavisimaya Gazeta and an economics professor. It is not discussed “at any level,” he added.

“永遠都聽不到結構調整的具體含義，”《獨立報》(Nezavisimaya Gazeta)主編、經濟學教授康斯坦丁·V·列姆丘科夫(Konstantin V. Remchukov)說。“在各個層面”都不會得到討論，他接着說。

Fighting between the conservative, nationalistic security establishment surrounding Mr. Putin and his liberal economic advisers has raged for years. Mr. Putin’s choices, ranging from a huge investment in modernizing the armed forces to military adventures in Ukraine, have gradually solidified the position of the security establishment to the detriment of the economists.

普京周圍保守的民族主義安保權力集團，與他的自由派經濟顧問之間的鬥爭已持續了多年。從投入巨資讓武裝部隊現代化，到在烏克蘭進行的軍事冒險活動，普京的選擇已逐步鞏固了安全部門的地位，卻打擊了那些經濟學家。

Moreover, Mr. Putin came to power after the chaotic 1990s promising to restore order at home and to re-establish Russia’s status as a world power. Easing his singular grip on the country’s political and economic levers or pulling back in Ukraine would threaten the foundations of his presidency and his personal popularity.

此外，普京是在經歷了混亂的上世紀90年代後上臺的。他承諾要恢復國內秩序，並重新樹立俄羅斯世界大國地位。他一手控制着俄羅斯的政治和經濟槓桿，而放鬆這種控制，或是在烏克蘭撤退，都可能會威脅到他總統之位的根基，以及他個人的威望。

Mr. Putin and his closest advisers, particularly those like him who are former agents of the K.G.B., remain wary of the consequences of too much economic freedom, many experts said.

很多專家表示，普京和他最親密的顧問，特別是那些和他一樣出身克格勃(KGB)探員的人，依然對過多的經濟自由會帶來的後果頗爲警惕。

“He is afraid to let it go,” said Igor Yurgens, the chairman of the Institute of Contemporary Development, a liberal-leaning research organization. “You have to give much more freedom to those who will implement the changes.”

“他害怕放手，”傾向自由派的研究結構當代發展研究所(Institute of Contemporary Development)所長伊戈爾·尤爾根斯(Igor Yurgens)說。“對要執行變革的人，你必須要給他們多得多的自由。”

Serious questions about whether the Kremlin has a crisis plan have circulated for weeks.

對克里姆林宮是否準備了危機應對方案的嚴重質疑，已流傳了數週。

Recently, at the Gaidar Forum, the country’s premier annual economic conference, three top officials painted rather different portraits of the economy.

前不久，在俄羅斯首屈一指的年度經濟會議蓋達爾論壇(Gaidar Forum)上，三名高級官員對經濟狀況的描述大相徑庭。

Prime Minister Dmitri A. Medvedev called the reliance on raw material exports “a thing of the past,” without saying what exactly would replace them.

總理德米特里·A·梅德韋傑夫(Dmitri A. Medvedev)稱依賴原料出口的日子“已成爲歷史”，但並未具體表明將用什麼來代替這種方式。

Alexei Ulyukayev, the minister of economic development, said Russia had plenty of money to ride out the hard times until economic growth resumed in a year or two. (“He’s a Buddhist!” quipped Mr. Lebedev, noting that the private sector was markedly less calm.)

經濟發展部長阿列克謝·烏柳卡耶夫(Alexei Ulyukayev)則稱，俄羅斯有大量資金可以安全渡過困難時期，直到經濟在一兩年後恢復增長。（“他是個佛教徒！”列別捷夫諷刺道，並指出私營領域根本沒有這麼冷靜。）

Only Mr. Siluanov, the finance minister, expressed concern, saying: “In the Ministry of Finance we have no peace of mind. It’s only tension.”

只有財政部長西盧阿諾夫表示擔憂，稱“在財政部，我們心裏並不平靜，只覺得緊張”。

The lack of a unified message aggravated the sense that there was little economic coordination at the highest levels of government. “Today, even nonspecialists see that the authorities don’t act as one team,” Mikhail D. Prokhorov, one of Russia’s richest men, wrote on Thursday in the daily business newspaper Kommersant.

缺乏統一口徑加重了人們的一種感覺：政府最高層內部在經濟問題上不存在什麼協調。“今天，即便是非專業人士都能看出來，當局不是作爲一個團隊在行動，”俄羅斯最大的富豪之一米哈伊爾·D·普羅霍羅夫(Mikhail D. Prokhorov)週四在商業日報《生意人報》(Kommersant)上寫道。

“Mr. Putin believes that in six months oil prices will come up; this is his deep conviction,” Mr. Remchukov, the newspaper editor, said. “If we don’t fall apart, we will be in chocolate in two years.”

“普京認爲六個月後石油價格就會上漲，他深信這一點，”《獨立報》主編列姆丘科夫說。“如果不崩潰，兩年後我們就會過上夢幻般的日子了。”