特朗普與《紙牌屋》

In recent weeks, I have been binge--watching the Netflix show House of Cards (an update of the classic BBC adaptation of Michael Dobbs’ novel). It is addictive and compelling, largely because of the clever dialogue and plot — but also because it sheds light on the presidency of Donald Trump.

最近幾周我一直在刷劇，狂看Netflix出品的《紙牌屋》(House of Cards)——該劇翻拍自英國廣播公司(BBC)根據邁克爾?多布斯(Michael Dobbs)的小說改編的經典電視劇。《紙牌屋》扣人心絃，令人慾罷不能，這在很大程度上是因爲構思精巧的對話和情節，但也是因爲看這部劇有助於人們看懂唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的總統生涯。

This is not just because the show, which follows the rise of an unscrupulous politician called Frank Underwood (played by Kevin Spacey), illustrates the grubby back-room deals often involved in pushing legislation through Congress, nor because its themes are familiar — from infighting among (largely) unprincipled politicians, to battles with terrorism, job-creation schemes, Chinese trade wars and so on.

這不只是因爲這部電視劇展示出國會推動立法的過程往往包含骯髒的幕後交易，也不是因爲其主題家喻戶曉——從（基本上）沒有原則的政客間的暗鬥到反恐戰爭、就業創造項目以及對華貿易戰等等。《紙牌屋》講述了一位寡廉鮮恥的政客弗蘭克?安德伍德(Frank Underwood)的發跡史，由凱文?史派西(Kevin Spacey)主演。

What I found most thought-provoking was that the drama’s portrayal of Washington DC is exactly what President Donald Trump loves to define himself against. If you want to understand why Trump can’t stop tweeting — and why his no-holds-barred statements are so popular among his base — watching House of Cards is a good start. It throws light on the “oppositional symbolism” that he has used so well; the way he has exploited his outsider status to appear as the opposite of all that is wrong with politics.

我發現最引人深思的是，這部連續劇所描述的華盛頓特區的樣子正是唐納德?特朗普總統喜歡自稱反對的東西。如果你想理解爲何特朗普不能停止發推文，以及爲何他口無遮攔的言論在其基礎選民中大受歡迎，看《紙牌屋》是個不錯的開始。它揭示了特朗普熟練運用的“對立象徵主義”(oppositional symbolism)手法；他是如何利用自己局外人的地位表現他站在一切政治上錯誤的做法的對立面。

Released on Netflix in four series between 2013 and 2016, the show was wildly popular when it aired, not just in America but around the world. Its success marked a powerful moment for the renaissance of television, which has become much hotter than film as a creative medium in recent years.

《紙牌屋》於2013年到2016年在Netflix網站上播出了4季，在美國和世界各地大受歡迎。它的成功標誌着電視復興的強大時刻——作爲創意媒體，最近幾年的電視遠比電影火爆。

I believe that the drama almost certainly influenced how politicians have become seen — and discussed — by TV viewers-cum-voters. While House of Cards was not the first TV programme to depict the machinations of the White House (and its plot lines are sometimes extreme), it reflected — and reinforced — a rising public perception that 21st-century Washington DC is corrupt, selfish and unconcerned with the lives of ordinary people living outside “the Beltway”.

我認爲，該劇當然影響了電視觀衆暨選民們看待並討論政客們的方式。儘管《紙牌屋》並非首部描述白宮陰謀詭計的電視節目（而且其劇情有時也很極端），但它反映（並增強）了公衆日益加深的一種認知，即21世紀的華盛頓特區是腐敗和自私的，不關心居住在“環城公路”以外地區的普通人的生活。

Just 7 per cent of the public believe members of Congress have high ethical standards, according to a recent poll by Gallup — a score that placed them below car salespeople at 8 per cent. Part of the reason why the series was so popular may be that it tapped into a pre-existing mood of distrust with politicians, if not disgust.

蓋洛普(Gallup)最近的調查顯示，只有7%的公衆認爲國會議員有很高的道德標準，這低於汽車銷售員獲得的8%的比例。《紙牌屋》大受歡迎的部分原因可能是，它抓住了人們早先就有的對政客們不信任（如果不是厭惡的話）的情緒。

So how does Trump fit into this? At first glance, he might appear to be a natural fit in Underwood’s unpredictable world. Indeed, when I walked into the White House last week to conduct an interview with the president, I initially had the surreal feeling that I was on a television set. Trump spends parts of his day sitting at that vast wooden desk in the Oval Office, surrounded by historic portraits, nervous aides and burlesque drama, moving about the West Wing just like the fictional leader.

那麼特朗普怎麼符合這種角色的？乍看之下，他似乎天然與安德伍德那種不可預測的世界相契合。實際上，當我上週走進白宮對特朗普進行採訪的時候，我最初有種自己是在電視劇中的夢幻感覺。特朗普一天裏會有部分時間坐在橢圓形辦公室裏那張巨大的木質辦公桌後面，周圍是歷史上的名人肖像、緊張不安的助手以及一些滑稽的表演，就像小說中虛構的領導人那樣在白宮西翼辦公樓裏走來走去。

But there is one crucial difference. Underwood is crafty, subtle and duplicitous — a politician who has spent years in Congress and is accustomed to lying in a fiendishly clever way and cutting shady deals with rivals, friends and lobbyists while maintaining an unruffled public manner. Trump, by contrast, operates with a crass, in-your-face style that gives the impression that he is nothing like a professional politician. He wears his emotions on his sleeve (or his Twitter feed).

但有一個關鍵的不同。安德伍德狡詐、有心機而且兩面三刀——他是一名在國會呆過多年的政客，習慣以極其聰明的方式撒謊並與競爭對手、朋友和說客簽署暗箱協議，同時在公衆面前鎮定自如。相比之下，特朗普做事粗魯而且咄咄逼人，讓人覺得他一點兒也不像一名職業政客。他是個把情緒掛在臉上（或者推文上）的人。

A cynic might argue that this is an even more duplicitous pose. Past behaviour suggests that Trump can be strategic; he knows the art of bluffing, double-dealing and playing games with the truth. But the way he talks — and tweets — creates the impression that he is blunt and upfront, a man of business not politics. And this gives him powerful symbolic appeal, precisely because he does not adhere to the bland, scripted clichés of politicians such as Underwood.

懷疑者可能辯稱，這是一種更爲兩面三刀的做派。過去的行爲表明，特朗普可能工於心計；他知道虛張聲勢策略、兩面派手法並玩弄真相。但他談話和發推文的方式讓人覺得，他坦率直爽，是一個商人而非政客。這讓他擁有了強大的象徵性的吸引力，原因恰恰是他不符合安德伍德等政客那種乏味的老套形象。

Ever since the anthropologist Claude Lévi-Strauss developed the theory of structuralism, anthropologists have known that cultural patterns tend to operate in binary pairs, such as “hot-cold”, “dark-light” and so on. Trump’s appeal to some voters is that he has used symbols to define himself against the perceived status quo.

自從人類學家克洛德?列維-斯特勞斯（Claude Lévi-Strauss）發展了結構主義理論，人類學家們便知道了文化模式往往以二元對立的形式運行，比如“熱和冷”“暗和亮”等等。特朗普對一些選民的吸引力在於，他利用象徵手法把他自己定義爲與已知現狀對立的角色。

The White House team is now grappling with its own dramas and scandals, and some of the allegations that have started to swirl around — like those concerning Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort — seem as bizarre as any fiction. In time, the public may come to view Trump’s White House as being as “swampy” as anything seen on TV; almost too bizarre to be in a Netflix plot line.

白宮團隊如今正忙着解決自己的戲劇性事件和醜聞，已經開始發酵的一些指控——比如那些與特朗普前競選經理保羅?馬納福特(Paul Manafort)有關的指控——看起來就像小說一樣匪夷所思。到最後，公衆可能會認爲特朗普的白宮與電視上看到的一樣，也是一片“沼澤地”；太過離奇以至於Netflix都寫不出這樣的劇情。

But what is fascinating to watch is what happens next — not just to Trump but also to House of Cards, which returns for a fifth series next month. Thus far, the plot has been kept under wraps. But if the fictional president Underwood now undergoes a personality shift, and starts tweeting in a crass style, the boundaries between art and life will blur again. All eyes on the Oval Office — in real life and on screen.

但有意思的是看看接下來會發生什麼——不只是特朗普，還有“紙牌屋”（該劇將於下個月迴歸，開播第五季）。到目前爲止，劇情還在保密中。但如果那位虛構的總統安德伍德性格大變，開始以粗魯的風格在Twitter上發文，那麼藝術與生活之間的界限將再次變得模糊。無論是在現實生活中還是在熒屏上，所有目光都在盯着橢圓形辦公室。