智能手錶能給蘋果帶來36億美元

From a patent Apple filed in 2011.

蘋果2011年申請的一項專利。

Led by Peter Burrows, a veteran tech reporter with more than two decades under his belt, Bloomberg has taken a second crack at the Apple (AAPL) iWatch story that the New York Times and Wall Street Journal broke three weeks ago.

彼得巴羅斯是一位有着二十多年從業經驗的資深科技記者。在他帶領下，彭博公司（Bloomberg）在三週前的《紐約時報》（New York Times）和《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）對蘋果公司（Apple）iWatch所做報道的基礎上，再次對此進行了深入挖掘。

Bloomberg's contribution that first week was a report, sourced by two people "familiar with the company's plans," that Apple had 100 product designers working on a wristwatch-like device that could perform some of the tasks now handled by the iPhone and iPad.

根據兩位“熟悉蘋果公司計劃”的知情人士透露的線索，彭博在第一週發表了一篇報道。報道稱，蘋果調用了100位產品設計師，正在開發一款腕錶式的設備，能執行一些目前由iPhone和iPad完成的任務。

Monday's piece offers an analysis of the smart watch business that makes it look considerably more attractive than the prevailing view on the Internet -- which is that nobody wears a watch anymore except as a fashion statement.

星期一的這篇報道分析了智能手錶行業。互聯網上有一種普遍觀點：現在沒人戴手錶了，除非是把它當成一種時尚表達。相比之下，這篇文章的看法非常獨特。

Among the points the Bloomberg story makes:

彭博這篇報道的主要觀點如下：

Watches are a big business. The global watch industry will generate $60 billion in sales in 2013.

手錶是個大產業。2013年全球手錶業銷售額將達600億美元。

Watches are a profitable business. Gross margins on watches are about 60%, right in Apple's comfort zone.

手錶業利潤豐厚。手錶的毛利率大概是60%，對蘋果來說正中下懷。

Watches are a more attractive business than TVs. The margin on watches is about four times bigger than for televisions.

手錶產業比電視產業更有吸引力。手錶的利潤率大概是電視的四倍。

Apple is interested in watches. The company has taken out 79 patents with the word "wrist" in them, including one for a device with a flexible screen that's powered by kinetic energy.

蘋果對手錶很感興趣。蘋果公司已取得79項含有“手腕”這個詞的專利，包括一款帶有摺疊屏、動能驅動的設備。

Jony Ive is particularly interested. Apple's chief designer owns many high-end models and in the mid-2000s had a team visit Nike and bring home boxes of one of their sports watches.

喬納森艾夫尤其感興趣。身爲蘋果的首席設計師，他擁有衆多高端手錶。2000年中，他率隊造訪了耐克公司（Nike），帶回來耐克的一款運動手錶，數量多達好幾箱。

The timing is right. A 2003 Microsoft-Fossil smart phone partnership fizzled, but customers are more accustomed today to using mobile apps in their everyday lives.

恰逢良機。2003年，微軟（Microsoft）和時尚品牌Fossil在智能手機上的合作流產了。但時至今日，用戶比以往更習慣在生活中使用手機應用。

Among the features under consideration, according to one of Bloomberg's sources, is making phone calls, seeing the identity of incoming callers, checking map coordinates, counting steps (with a built-in pedometer) and monitoring health-related data, such as heart rates.

據彭博社的一位知情人士透露，蘋果這款手錶正在開發的性能包括：打電話、查看來電人身份、查看地圖座標、計算步數（用內置步數器）、以及監控心率等健康信息。

Assuming a 10% market share of a $60 billion market with a 60% gross margin, Bloomberg estimates that Apple could see revenues of up to $3.6 billion with a successful smart watch. Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty did a similar exercise and came up with incremental revenue to Apple of $10 to $15 billion a year, assuming 20% of Apple's existing customers bought one every two years. See her spreadsheet below.

如果蘋果能在這個總額高達600億美元的大市場中獲得10%的份額，而且毛利率達到60%，彭博預測，蘋果能夠在這款智能手錶身上拿到的營收將高達36億美元。而摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凱蒂休伯蒂做了類似預估，同時提出，蘋果每年因此獲得的增量營收爲100億到150億美元，這個預測假定蘋果現有客戶中，20%的人每兩年會買一個。請看她的圖解。