"隱形燃料"確保未來能源安全

When Energy economists gaze into their crystal balls to see what the world will look like in 20 years’ time, some things are clearer than others.

當能源經濟學家透過水晶球預言二十年後世界的景象時，有些情況要比其他方面更加清晰。

Clearest of all is that the global population will grow and with it the world economy. As countries get richer, their demand for energy will rise, placing ever new strains on the planet’s natural resources.

最明確的是，世界人口將會增加，世界經濟也會隨之增長。隨着各國變得更加富有，他們對能源的需求也會增加，因而不斷給地球自然資源帶來新的壓力。

A closer look at forecasts for energy demand, however, reveals some surprising conclusions.

然而，進一步觀察對能源需求的預測，就會得出一些令人驚訝的結論。

Consider ExxonMobil’s annual energy outlook to 2040. The company says that total energy demand is growing: the world will need 35 per cent more energy in 2040 than it does now. That growth rate pales in comparison with that of the world economy as a whole: Exxon says global GDP will expand by 135 per cent over the same period. What is more, in the world’s advanced economies – Europe, North America and Japan – energy demand will not grow at all.

來看看埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)到2040年的年度能源展望。該公司指出，總的能源需求在增加：2040年，世界能源需求量將比現在增加35%。與世界經濟整體相比，這一增長率根本不算什麼。埃克森指出，同一時期，全球GDP將會增長135%。此外，在歐洲、北美、日本等發達經濟體，能源需求根本不會增長。

The reason for this is energy efficiency. “The greatest source of energy in the future will be using it more efficiently,” says Bill Colton, Exxon’s vice-president for corporate strategy, and one of the authors of the outlook. “Huge amounts of energy will be saved in this way.”

原因就是能源效率。埃克森美孚負責企業戰略規劃的副總裁比爾•科爾頓(Bill Colton)說：“未來最大的能源來源就是更加有效地利用能源。通過這種方式將節約大量的能源。”科爾頓也是能源展望的作者之一。

In the battle against climate change, renewables were long seen as the silver bullet. The argument was that replacing fossil fuels with wind and solar power would reduce carbon emissions and thereby slow or even stop global warming, as well as curb consuming countries’ huge dependence on expensive imported oil and gas. But in the debate about our energy future, the theme of energy efficiency – called the “invisible fuel” by some – is taking on a new prominence. Consumers are starting to understand that the energy they do not use can have almost as much impact as the energy they do.

在應對氣候變化的過程中，可再生能源一直被認爲是良方。理由就是用風能和太陽能代替化石燃料會降低碳排放，因而減緩甚至阻止全球變暖，並限制消費國對昂貴的進口石油和天然氣的嚴重依賴。但在關於能源未來的爭論中，能源效率的主題，也就是一些人所說“隱形燃料”，將更加突出。消費者開始瞭解，他們沒有使用的能源幾乎與使用的能源會產生同樣的影響。

The result is a shift in thinking about everything from building design to street lighting. That means the future of energy is no longer the preserve of oil companies, wind farm developers and government officials, but of everyone from architects and appliance manufacturers to civil engineers and carmakers. Big energy savings have been achieved by seemingly minor technological changes such as moving from gas boilers for space heating to heat pumps.

結果就是從建築設計到街道照明的理念都發生轉變。這意味着能源的未來不再只是石油公司、風力發電站、政府官員的節約，還包括從建築師、設備製造商、到土木工程師和汽車製造商。一個看似很小的技術變化就可以節約大量能源，比如空間加熱的燃氣鍋爐到加熱泵的轉變。

The potential prize is enormous.

潛在的收益是很大的。

A recent report by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in Germany found that the EU’s energy requirements could end up being 57 per cent lower in 2050 than they were in 1990, offering the tantalising prospect of 500bn a year in energy savings.

德國弗勞恩霍夫協會系統與創新研究所(Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research)最近的一份報告顯示，2050年歐盟(EU)的能源需求可能會比1990年還低57%，能源方面每年節約的資金可能高達5000億歐元。

The institute says energy use in buildings could be cut by 71 per cent, mainly through better insulation, modern construction technology and energy efficient heating and hot water systems. In transportation, improvements in traffic management and better logistics could result in energy savings of 53 per cent, while more efficient steam generation and electric motors could help reduce industrial energy demand by 52 per cent.

該機構表示，建築上使用的能源可能會降低71%，主要是通過更好的隔熱、現代建築技術、節能加熱、熱水系統實現的。在交通領域，交通管理和物流的改善大約能節約53%的能源，而更多的高效蒸發和電機可能會使得工業能源需求下降52%。

Cumulative spending on such measures is growing fast. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that in 2011 $180bn was invested globally in projects aimed at improving energy efficiency. Yet that is a paltry sum compared to the money flowing into traditional energy production. The IEA says more than three times that amount – nearly $600bn – was invested the same year in expanding or maintaining the world’s supply of fossil fuels.

這些技術的累計支出正在快速增加。國際原子能機構(IEA)指出，2011年全球改善能源效率的項目投資爲1800億美元。但與傳統能源生產投資相比，這只是一筆很小的數目。IEA表示，同一年，在擴大或者維持全球化石燃料供應上的投資將近6000億美元，是這一數目的三倍多。

The problem is that there are still significant barriers. With assets such as buildings, the payback time for investing in an improvement in energy efficiency can be several years – often longer than the buyer plans to own the asset.

問題的關鍵在於，提高能源利用效率仍然面臨巨大障礙。對於像樓房這樣的資產而言，投資於改進能效的回報週期可能長達數年——常常比買方計劃持有這一資產的時間還要久。

Also, it can be hard to measure success. The EU recently said it would not meet its target of saving 20 per cent of its primary energy consumption by 2020, partly because of the “lack of appropriate tools for monitoring progress and measuring impacts on the member state level”.

此外，節能投資的成效也難以衡量。歐盟表示，或無法實現在2020年以前將主要能源消耗量縮減20%的目標，部分原因在於“缺乏成員國層面的監控節能進展以及評估節能舉措影響的合適工具”。

There is another potential danger – the so-called “rebound effect”. If you save money on electricity by installing a heat pump, for example, but spend what you save on air travel, the improvement in energy efficiency is meaningless. The EU has identified rebound losses of 10-30 per cent.

此外還有一個潛在風險——即所謂的“反彈效應”。例如，假設你通過安裝熱力泵在電費上省了一筆，但把省下來的錢花在了乘坐飛機旅行上， 那麼這種能效提升將毫無意義。歐盟認爲，反彈效應造成的能效損失在10%至30%之間。

Still, despite the potential dangers, companies involved in energy efficiency are becoming a new and attractive asset class for investors. Alastair Bishop, portfolio manager of BlackRock’s natural resources team, singles out companies such as Schneider Electric and Johnson Controls, specialists in building automation systems that monitor and control the heating, ventilation, air conditioning and lighting in an office block. Such companies install sensors that turn off lights in a room when it is empty or shut down heating overnight, steps that can contribute to big savings. “If you look at the larger energy story, before the financial crisis it was all about producing more energy,” Mr Bishop says. “But since the crisis, there’s been more awareness of the sustainability and affordability of power.”

雖然存在這些潛在風險，參與能效提升的企業現已成爲對於投資者充滿吸引力的一個新的資產類別。貝萊德(BlackRock)自然資源股團隊投資組合經理阿拉斯泰爾•畢曉普(Alastair Bishop)將施耐德電氣(Schneider Electric)、江森自控(Johnson Controls)等企業單列出來。這類企業擅長建造自動化系統，能夠監控一棟辦公大樓內的取暖、空氣流通、空氣調節以及照明。這類公司可以通過安裝感應器在房間內空無一人時關閉照明，或者在夜間關閉暖氣裝置，此類舉措能夠節約大量能源。畢曉普表示：“如果你用一種廣義的視角來看能源行業，那麼在金融危機發生前，生產更多的能源是這一領域的主要目標。但自金融危機發生以來，人們對於能源可持續性以及可承受性的意識日趨增強。”

Nevertheless, he stresses that investments need government support to work. This is happening – on a large scale. In recent years, all the major energy-consuming countries have passed laws to encourage energy efficiency. The US has introduced new fuel-economy standards for vehicles; the EU has its target of reducing energy demand by 20 per cent by 2020; Japan wants to cut electricity demand by 10 per cent in 2030 compared to 2010; and China has a goal of cutting energy intensity by 16 per cent between 2011 and 2015.

他強調，在能效領域的投資需要政府支持才能真正發揮作用，而後者已經在較大的範圍內開始推行。近年來，所有主要的能源消費國都通過了旨在促進提高能源利用率的法案。美國引入了針對汽車的燃料利用率新標準；歐盟的目標是在2020年以前將自身的能源需求規模縮減20%；日本希望在2030年實現電力需求較2010年下降10%；中國則定下了在2011至2015年間將單位產值能耗降低16%的目標。

“There’s a theme here,” says Exxon’s Mr Colton. “The improvement in efficiency that we’ve been seeing is mostly being driven by government policy. Consumers would not get there on their own.”

埃克森的科爾頓表示：“能效領域已經形成了一種主導模式。目前爲止我們所見到的絕大部分能效提升都是在政府政策的推動下實現的。消費者不會自發要求提高能效。”

Some policies are highly specific. In 2010, the EU adopted a directive on the energy performance of buildings. It requires all new buildings to be “nearly zero energy” by 2021. On a national scale, too, governments are coming up with evermore innovative ways of encouraging energy savings. Under the UK’s Green Deal scheme, for example, consumers can take out a loan for home improvement measures such as getting rid of an old boiler and pay it back through a surcharge on their electricity bills.

某些政策本身高度細化。2010年，歐盟施行了一項有關房屋能效的規定。該規定要求，所有新建房屋必須在2021年以前實現“淨能耗接近於零”。在單個國家的範圍內，各國政府也採用了越來越多富有創意的辦法來鼓勵民衆節約能源。例如按照英國的Green Deal計劃，消費者可以爲替換老舊鍋爐等房屋整修舉措申請貸款，並通過支付溢價電費的形式予以償還。

Although energy conservation is a big concern in the west, some parts of the world have made little or no progress. The abundance of fossil fuels in the Middle East and the low cost of energy – with heavily subsidised prices for petrol and gas – gives the region little incentive to husband resources. The IEA says the average efficiency of fossil fuel power generation in the Middle East is just 33 per cent – 9 per cent lower than in the west. That is why some are sceptical that global energy intensity – the amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP – will come down drastically soon. Futurologist Jorgen Randers, in a report offering a global forecast for the next 40 years, expects energy intensity to fall by only a third compared to 2010 – not enough to stop catastrophic climate change. Still, Maria van der Hoeven, the IEA’s executive director, believes: “The most secure energy is the barrel or megawatt we never have to use”.

雖然節約能源在西方是一個頗爲引人關注的問題，世界上的某些地區在節能方面卻幾乎沒有取得任何進展。中東地區充裕的化石燃料資源以及低廉的能源成本——汽油和天然氣價格因爲來自政府的大額補貼而處於低位——導致該地區幾乎沒有動力來節約能源。國際能源機構表示，中東地區化石燃料發電的平均效率僅爲33%，較西方國家低了9個百分點。這也正是爲什麼某些人懷疑全球單位產值能耗——生產每單位GDP所需消耗的能源數量——能否在短時間內顯著下降。未來學家喬根•蘭德斯(Jorgen Randers)在一份預測未來40年全球面貌的報告中預計，單位產值能耗相對於2010年時僅會下降三分之一——不足以阻止災難性的氣候變化發生。但國際能源機構總幹事瑪麗亞•範德胡芬(Maria van der Hoeven)依然認爲：“最安全可靠的能源是我們節約下來、永遠不必用到的石油或電力。”