應對風暴的斯沃琪 Lex
The back of an iPhone proclaims that it is “designed in California, made in China”. That will not do for Swatch. The words “Made in Switzerland” are crucial to the appeal of timepieces, from 4,500 Omegas to 40 Swatches — leaving the company committed to manufacturing in one of the world’s most expensive countries.
iPhone背面的文字宣稱它是“加州設計，中國組裝”。對斯沃琪(Swatch)來說，這樣可行不通。“瑞士製造”的字眼是手錶吸引力的重中之重，從4500歐元一塊的歐米茄(Omega)手錶到40歐元一塊的斯沃琪手錶都是如此，這讓斯沃琪堅持在世界上成本最高的國家之一生產手錶。
Switzerland became even more expensive in January, when the Swiss National Bank gave up trying to contain the appreciation of the franc. Shares in Swatch have clawed back about half of the 20 per cent drop that followed that decision, helped by half-year results yesterday that beat forecasts. At about 16 times forecast 2016 earnings, the valuation is reasonable compared with past levels and peers such as Richemont, on 19.
今年1月，瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)放棄了遏制瑞士法郎升值的努力，這使瑞士的生產成本變得更爲高昂。在瑞士央行做出這一決定後，斯沃琪的股價下跌了20%，不過斯沃琪昨日發佈的上半年業績數據超出預測，幫助其股價收復了大約一半的失地。按照2016年的預期盈利計算，斯沃琪的市盈率爲16倍，相比其過去的估值和歷峯集團（Richemont，預期市盈率爲19倍）等同行業公司的估值，斯沃琪現在的估值較爲合理。
Currency movements knocked SFr56m off sales and pushed operating margins down to 18 per cent, but sales did at least grow, even in franc terms.
匯率變動使斯沃琪的銷售額減少了5600萬瑞郎，致使其營運利潤率降至18%，但即使按瑞郎計算，斯沃琪的銷售額還是增長了。
China is another headwind; it accounts for a third of sales. A clampdown on gifting had already affected the company’s high-end brands. Recent turmoil in China’s financial markets might yet curb consumer appetite for mid-market watches, or the ability of Chinese to exploit regional price differentials for luxury goods by holidaying in Europe.
中國是另一個不利因素；該市場佔斯沃琪銷售額的三分之一。中國政府對送禮的打擊已經對斯沃琪旗下的高端品牌造成影響。最近中國金融市場的動盪可能還會抑制消費者對中檔手錶的興趣，或者降低中國人到歐洲度假時利用地區差價購買奢侈品的能力。
Swatch is responding sensibly. Although committed to increasing market share, it still managed to raise prices in Europe and has held them in China. It is introducing new products, expanding its retail network and sounded notably optimistic about the second half. Despite its expansion plans, inventories rose only modestly in the first half, suggesting the company is not struggling to sell merchandise.
斯沃琪做出了合理的迴應。儘管斯沃琪尋求擴大市場份額，該公司依然成功地在歐洲提高了價格，並保持了中國市場的價格。斯沃琪正在推出新產品、擴大零售網絡，聽上去對下半年也非常樂觀。儘管有擴張計劃，但今年上半年斯沃琪的庫存僅小幅增加，說明該公司的銷售情況不錯。
Investors are putting a lot of trust in the Hayek family, which holds key roles and keeps control via a two-tier share structure. Disclosure is patchy. But having weathered one storm at home, they appear well placed to deal with another overseas.
投資者對哈耶克(Hayek)家族寄予很大信任，該家族通過雙層股權結構控制斯沃琪公司，並在經營中扮演關鍵角色。斯沃琪的信息披露情況參差不齊。但安然渡過國內的一場風暴以後，這個家族似乎有能力應對海外的另一場風暴。
