他她話題:奢侈品企業失去光環

Chinese athletes have been collecting plenty of gold in London. But their countrymen seem to be losing a taste for it. The latest sign of a Chinese luxury goods slowdown came from Richemont, the high end jeweller, yesterday.

中國的運動員們在倫敦奧運會上已經收穫了許多金牌，但他們的同胞對黃金的興趣似乎卻正在消減。瑞士高檔珠寶商曆峯集團(Richemont)昨日發佈的公告，爲中國奢侈品市場增長放緩提供了最新證據。

Its terse statement was impressive on the surface – operating profits will rise between 20 and 40 per cent this year. But much of that is due to currency moves, and the range of potential profit growth suggests that Richemont is not confident enough to be more precise. And growth is slowing – sales before currency changes grew 20 per cent in April, but only 13 per cent across the April-June quarter.

該集團的業績簡報粗看之下似乎令人印象深刻——在截至9月30日的六個月中，公司營業利潤較上年同期增幅預計在20%至40%之間，但其中大部分將來自匯率波動。另外，公佈預估的浮動區間比較大，表明歷峯集團沒有信心給出更精確的估計。公司的業績增長也在放緩，4月份未經匯率調整的銷售額同比增長20%，而4月至7月銷售額同比增幅僅爲13%。

Richemont is not alone. All kinds of luxury goods companies have been throwing their arms up in horror at the prospect of a Chinese consumer slowdown. On Friday, Hugo Boss said shoppers in the country were holding back and that Asian revenues in the second quarter were only 4 per cent up on the same period last year. The previous week LVMH said that first-half organic growth in its watches and jewellery business was just 4 per cent. Last month Burberry said that first-quarter sales growth had slowed from 30 per cent to 11 per cent.

歷峯集團並非唯一出現增長放緩的奢侈品企業。中國消費支出增長放緩的前景，令各類奢侈品企業驚慌失措。雨果博斯(Hugo Boss)上週五表示，中國消費者正在控制支出，第二季度來自亞洲地區的收入較上年同期僅增長4%。此前一週路威酩軒(LVMH)宣佈，今年上半年其腕錶及珠寶業務有機增長率(organic growth)僅爲4%。上月博柏利(Burberry)則表示，公司第一季度銷售額增長放緩，同比增長率由前一季度的30%降至11%。

Luxury goods shares have been relatively resilient. The MSCI World Textile, Apparel and Luxury Goods index has been flat since the start of June, albeit after a 16 per cent fall in May. But some companies look vulnerable. In particular, some of the high end clothing companies look expensive. Prada, which released good results yesterday, trades on 23 times forecast earnings, while Burberry is on 18 and Hugo Boss is on 16. Jewellery and watch groups such as Richemont, Tiffany and Swatch are more reasonably rated on around 14. Some discount is justified, as big ticket items are more likely than clothes to suffer. But the gap looks too wide.

奢侈品公司股價則表現得較爲堅挺。進入6月以來，摩根士丹利資本國際公司全球紡織、服裝和奢侈品指數(MSCI World Textile, Apparel and Luxury Goods Index)一直保持平穩，儘管該指數5月累計下跌了16%。但目前一些公司的股價似乎缺乏支撐，特別是一些高檔服裝企業股價似乎偏高。目前普拉達(Prada)的預期市盈率爲23倍（該公司昨日發佈了不錯的業績公告），博柏利爲18倍，雨果博斯則爲16倍。歷峯集團、蒂芙尼(Tiffany)和斯沃琪(Swatch)等珠寶及腕錶企業的預期市盈率更爲合理，在14倍左右。相對於服裝而言，此類高價單品更容易受到消費者支出放緩的影響，因此，這些珠寶及腕錶企業的市盈率較低是理所當然的。但兩類奢侈品企業的市盈率差距似乎太大了。