奢侈品將在中國東山再起

For years, French, Italian and American luxury brands have thrived as China’s middle class developed a taste for high-end fashion and jewelry.

這幾年，隨着中國中產階層逐漸迷上高檔時裝和珠寶，來自法國、意大利和美國的衆多奢侈品牌在中國發展得紅紅火火。

But that sales boom is ebbing based on the disappointing results many Western luxury retailers have reported of late, though much suggests this slowdown will be short-lived.

但這種銷售熱潮正在消減，近來多家西方奢侈品零售商發佈的令人失望的業績就是明證。儘管也有很多跡象表明，這種放緩只是暫時的。

Last year, Chinese luxury sales fell 1% compared to 2013 at 115 billion RMB ($18.5 billion at current rates), according to a report by Bain & Co. A slowing Chinese economy and a government crackdown on graft and gift-giving that was particularly brutal on the watch industry is mostly to blame.

據貝恩諮詢公司統計，去年中國的奢侈品銷售額比2013年下降了1%，跌至1150億元人民幣。中國經濟放緩以及政府打擊貪污腐敗和送禮之風對手錶行業的影響尤其明顯，也是奢侈品銷量走低的主要原因所在。

French luxury brand Hermès said watch sales fell 11% in large part because of China, and the company is expecting overall growth this year to remain slow compared to recent averages. Meanwhile, Prada said it expects the tough times for luxury to continue after its China sales fell 4% in 2014.

法國奢侈品牌愛馬仕表示，其腕錶部門銷售業績去年下滑了11%，很大程度上受中國奢侈品市場萎縮影響。該公司預計，與近年平均水平相比，2015年的整體增長將依然緩慢。普拉達2014年中國市場的銷售業績則下滑了4%，其預計今年奢侈品牌依舊面臨艱難處境。

At the same time, Hermès, known for its highly coveted Birkin bags and horse-themed silk scarves that go for thousands of dollars each, has continued to expand its stores in China. That includes its flagship Maison Hermès in Shanghai a few months ago.

然而，以鉑金包和絲巾等聞名的愛馬仕一直在中國持續增設門店，就在幾個月前，它在上海的新旗艦店——愛馬仕之家開張。

Why? Because there is ample data to suggest that luxury’s current slowdown in China is but a speed bump.

這一切是爲什麼？因爲有充分數據表明，當前中國的奢侈品銷售只是遇到了一個“減速帶”。

According to a new report by the Economic Intelligence Unit sponsored by Citigroup, China’s wealthy will have double the assets of their U.S counterpart within five years. By 2020, the financial assets of Chinese worth $100,000 to $2 million will reach $53 trillion, compared to $27 trillion in the United States, according to the report.

由花旗委託經濟學人智庫完成一份新研究報告稱，五年內，中國富人擁有的資產將是美國富人的兩倍。該報告指出，到2020年，身家在10萬到200萬美元的中國人擁有的金融資產總額將達53萬億美元，而美國僅爲27萬億美元。

That means a lot of people will be wanting to shop at Prada, Gucci and Tiffany & Co TIF 0.35% and buying expensive Estée Lauder EL 0.58% beauty products. And such companies are happy to oblige.

也就是說，有很多人會想去普拉達、Gucci和蒂芙尼店裏去購物，以及購買昂貴的雅詩蘭黛美妝產品。這些公司對此樂意之至。

Fashion company Michael Kors KORS -0.25% , which is just getting started with its China expansion, recently said sales there are “starting to take hold.” Kors’ archrival Coach COH 0.17% , which plans several new stores in China, saw its sales there rise 13% in its most recent quarter. Tiffany is full steam ahead with its China expansion despite disappointing numbers over the holidays at its Hong Kong stores, a favorite haunt of mainland customers.

剛着手在中國擴張業務的時裝公司Michael Kors最近表示，其在華銷售業績“開始穩定下來”。這家公司的勁敵Coach則計劃在中國新開幾家門店，它最新一個季度的在華銷售額增長了13%。另外，儘管深受內地遊客喜愛的蒂芙尼香港門店的假期銷售數字未達到預期，但它依然在全速推進在華擴張計劃。

Other Western companies, including non-luxury brands, also have big plans for China. Gap Inc GPS -0.58% , whose brands include Old Navy, plans to open 40 new stores in China this year, while Ralph Lauren RL -0.10% sees China as one of its “greatest” markets on the back of double-digit sales growth last year.

其他一些非奢侈品牌的西方公司也準備在中國大展拳腳。擁有Old Navy等品牌的Gap公司計劃今年在中國新開40家門店。拉爾夫o勞倫去年在中國實現了兩位數的銷售增長，眼下將中國視爲其“最至關重要”的市場之一。

So it’s clear that any Chinese slowdown is seen by luxury and retail executives as a blip.

顯然，對奢侈品牌和零售業高層來說，中國市場放緩只是一個暫時的變化。

“China’s prestige beauty growth remains at high single digits, and we see widespread opportunity to enter additional cities, doors and channels, and launch more brands,” Estée Lauder CEO Fabrizio Freda said last month.

雅詩蘭黛首席執行官法布里吉奧o弗裏達上個月說，“中國高檔美容產品市場仍保持着高單位數增長，我們看到這裏遍佈機會，可以進入更多的城市，建立新的門店和銷售渠道，並推出更多品牌。”