蘇曉暉：美“亞太再平衡”戰略失道寡助

美“亞太再平衡”戰略失道寡助
Asia-Pacific Rebalance, an Unjust Strategy That Finds Little Support
中國國際問題研究院國際戰略研究所副所長 蘇曉暉
Su Xiaohui, Deputy Director of the Department for International and Strategic Studies at the China Institute of International Studies

2016年5月30日
May 30, 2016
近期，美國總統奧巴馬到訪越南和日本，力推“亞太再平衡”戰略，受到廣泛關注。有西方媒體爲該戰略叫好，甚至宣稱“美有能力與那些中國對其感到擔憂的鄰國建立更強的同盟關係”。
During his recent visit to Vietnam and Japan, U.S. President Barack Obama has been advocating the Asia-Pacific Rebalance strategy, drawing wide attention from the international community. Some western media even applaud this kind of strategy, claiming that the U.S. is capable of building stronger alliance ties with countries that are China’s concerns.
“亞太再平衡”是奧巴馬政府對外政策的重中之重。從設計看，該戰略包括3個方面，而這3個方面也貫穿奧巴馬此次亞洲之行始終。
The Asia-Pacific Rebalance strategy is a top priority in the foreign policy of the Obama administration. From the content, the strategy includes three aspects, which were thoroughly highlighted in Obama’s trip this time.
第一，增加美在亞太地區軍事存在並提高美對地區安全事務的介入能力。奧巴馬訪越期間，兩國發表聯合聲明，其中包括加強安全與防衛合作的內容。美政府決定全面解除對越銷售致命武器的禁令，並承諾幫助越提升海上能力。“美軍重返金蘭灣”，是美與越認真探討的重要問題之一。
First of all, is the increased military presence of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region and its strengthened engagement in regional security affairs. During Obama’s visit to Vietnam, both sides issued a joint statement, pledging to step up cooperation in security, defense, and other U.S. government has fully lifted its embargo on sales of lethal arms to Vietnam, and promised to help improve Vietnam’s maritime ability. The “Return of U.S. Forces to Cam Ranh Bay” is among the key topics of discussion between the U.S. and Vietnam.
第二，謀求美對亞太地區經濟秩序的影響及掌控能力。“跨太平洋夥伴關係協定”（TPP）成爲美重要抓手，而越日都是TPP參與方。奧巴馬訪越期間，大談TPP對越經濟增長、就業等方面的益處，承諾爲越提供技術援助、能力建設等方面的支持，以促進越儘快批准並全面執行這一所謂的“高標準”協議。
Secondly, is the seeking of influence and control over economic order in the Asia-Pacific region. The Tran-Pacific Partnership (TPP), with Vietnam and Japan on board, has become a crucial stepping point for the U.S. Obama administration which has raved about the benefits that the TPP will bring to economic growth and the boosting of employment in Vietnam and has vowed to offer technical support as well as capability-building assistance to the Southeast Asian country, in a bid to persuade the Vietnamese side to approve and fully carry out this so-called “high-standard” agreement as soon as possible.
第三，提升美與亞太地區國家的溝通和協作能力。美致力於推動與日本等傳統盟友關係，鞏固同盟體系。應日方要求，奧巴馬打破慣例，成爲第一位在任期內訪問廣島的美國總統。此舉頗有對日示好、拉近美日同盟關係之意。同時，美重視與地區國家建立夥伴關係，打造關係網絡。美越明確，將強化政治與外交紐帶，並有意開展由外交部長和國防部長參加的“2+2”會談，進一步發展“全面夥伴關係”。
Thirdly, is the promotion in the regards of communication and coordination abilities between the U.S. and Asia-Pacific countries. The U.S. is committed to consolidate alliance ties with Japan and other traditional allies. Per the request of Japan, Obama visited Hiroshima, making him the first active U.S. president to do so. Such a move is clearly intended to bring closer together the U.S.-Japan the meantime, the U.S. is also developing partnerships with regional countries in order to build a relationship network. The U.S. and Vietnam have made it clear that the two countries will strengthen political and diplomatic bonds and intends to launch “2+2” meetings between both Foreign Ministers and Defense Ministers, so as to further enrich the “comprehensive partnership”.
顯然，奧巴馬此次訪亞是緊緊圍繞“亞太再平衡”戰略主題展開的，有着多重目的，牽制中國的意圖明顯，但現實恐難如其所願。
Obama’s trip to Japan and Vietnam this time is obviously centered on the Asia-Pacific strategy with multiple agendas. Through clearly intending to restrain China, the U.S. may not get what it wishes for.
在軍事部署方面，美加強在亞太地區軍事存在，尤其是在南海的肆意橫行引發局勢緊張，更引起地區國家的憂慮。在經濟合作領域，伴隨奧巴馬訪越，有媒體指出TPP的實施將使大量越南生產的鞋子等產品涌入美國，引起美國內部分利益團體擔憂及對政府不滿。越也不會因加入TPP而放棄其他選擇，並在實際上已經加入“區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定”（RCEP）以及中國倡導建立的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（AIIB）。在同盟夥伴關係方面，奧巴馬訪問廣島備受爭議，引發韓國不滿；越實行多樣化的對外政策，不會輕易在大國之間選邊站隊，更不願將自身綁上美國的戰車。
In terms of military deployment, more frequent military presence of U.S. troops, especially its reckless behavior in the South China Sea, has triggered tension and concerns among regional for economic cooperation, several media have pointed out that the implementation of the TPP could let more Vietnam-made commodities, such as shoes, flood into the U.S. market, which will bring about concerns from domestic interest groups and cause dissatisfaction within the the other hand, TPP membership will not convince Vietnam to relinquish other options. In fact, Vietnam has joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as well as the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)a’s visit to Hiroshima has also drawn controversy from U.S. allies, for example, South Korea. Due to its diverse foreign policies, Vietnam will not easily choose sides between major countries, let alone be tied to the U.S. “chariot”.
美“亞太再平衡”戰略之所以不能“一帆風順”，歸根結底是由於它“先天不足”：基於美國自身利益的排他性而非包容性，有違經濟全球化深入發展趨勢，更與和平與發展的時代潮流相背離。這樣的戰略，失道寡助，焉能如願？
The Asia-Pacific Rebalance strategy has been through a “rough ride”. The reason for this is that the strategy is ultimately based on the exclusiveness of America’s own interests, instead of inclusiveness. It goes against the trend of in-depth development of economic globalization and the epoch tide of peace and development. Unjust and with little support, how can such a strategy be realized?