美國重返亞洲戰略的悲劇前景
Rodrigo Duterte, the president of the Philippines, caused shock and sniggers around the world when he called Barack Obama the son of a whore.
菲律賓總統羅德里戈•杜特爾特(Rodrigo Duterte)說巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)是婊子養的，引起了全世界的震驚和竊笑。
But the Duterte comment that will have really hurt the White House came a few days later.
但杜特爾特真正傷害白宮(White House)的言論是幾天後發表的。
Announcing that he was ending joint naval patrols with the US in the South China Sea, the Philippines’ president stated: China is now in power and they have military superiority in the region.
這位菲律賓總統宣佈，他將結束本國與美國在南中國海(South China Sea)的海軍聯合巡邏。他聲明：中國眼下勢力正強，他們在該地區擁有軍事優勢。
That statement will sting in Washington.
該聲明將刺痛華盛頓方面。
Throughout the Obama years, the US has attempted to reassure all its Asian allies that America has both the means and the will to remain the dominant military power in the Asia-Pacific region.
縱觀奧巴馬執政這些年，美國一直試圖讓所有亞洲盟友放心：美國既有在亞太地區維持主導性軍事實力的手段，又有這樣做的意願。
President Obama set the tone in a landmark speech in 2011, when he firmly asserted that the United States is a Pacific power and we are here to stay.
美國總統奧巴馬在2011年的一次里程碑式講話中爲此定下了基調。他當時堅定地斷言道，美國是一個太平洋大國，將堅守這一地區。
Since then America has transferred more of its navy to the region and Mr Obama has regularly made the long journey from Washington to East Asia.
從那時起，美國向亞太增派了更多海軍兵力，奧巴馬經常不遠萬里，從華盛頓出發到訪東亞地區。
But Mr Duterte has now directly challenged the idea that America is still the hegemon in the Pacific.
但如今，杜特爾特直接挑戰了美國仍是太平洋霸主的觀點。
If others take his view, power could drain away from Washington, as more countries in the region begin to defer to Beijing.
如果其他人接受他的看法，隨着更多國家開始順從於中國，力量可能會從華盛頓手中溜走。
The Philippines’ president’s assessment of the military balance between the US and China is questionable.
菲律賓總統對於美中軍事平衡的評估是值得商榷的。
The Americans currently have 11 aircraft-carriers, while China has one — with another on the way.
目前，美國擁有11艘航空母艦，而中國只有一艘——另外還有一艘將於不久後下水。
But Chinese military spending has been rising fast for decades.
但幾十年來，中國的軍費開支一直快速增長。
And Beijing has also invested in the kinds of equipment, including missiles and submarines, that potentially make America’s aircraft carriers very vulnerable.
北京方面還投資研發包括導彈和潛艇在內的各種裝備，這些裝備可能使美國的航母變得非常易受攻擊。
Over the past year, China’s new confidence has been reflected in its programme of island building in the South China Sea, designed to reinforce Beijing’s controversial claim that roughly 90 per cent of that sea falls within its territorial waters.
過去一年裏，中國新的信心已在其南中國海造島計劃中反映出來。該計劃是爲了強化北京方面備受爭議的主張，即大約90%的南中國海海域屬於中國領海。
The Americans have been unable to stop this clear assertion of Chinese power and have restricted themselves to sailing past the disputed and increasingly militarised islands to signal that they do not accept China’s claims.
美國人一直無法阻止中國這種明確的實力展示，所做的僅僅是駛過這些存在爭議、軍事化程度越來越高的島嶼，以示他們不接受中國的主張。
The importance that the US attaches to the South China Sea has been repeatedly emphasised by the Obama administration.
奧巴馬政府已反覆強調了美國對南中國海的重視。
In an article on America’s Pacific century, published in 2011, Hillary Clinton pointed out that half the world’s merchant tonnage flows through this water.
在2011年發表的一篇題爲《美國的太平洋世紀》(America’s Pacific century)的文章中，希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)指出，經由這片海域運輸的貨運量佔到全球總貨運量的一半。
The US fears that Beijing intends to turn these crucial waters into a Chinese lake.
美國擔心，北京方面有意把這些關鍵水域變成中國的（一個）湖。
The Americans have long insisted, reasonably enough, that their position on the South China Sea is about upholding international law rather than engaging in a power struggle with China.
美國人長期以來堅稱——可以說不無道理——他們對於南中國海的立場是爲了維護國際法，而不是與中國展開力量角逐。
The Philippines has been vital to this law-based strategy.
對於這種基於法律的策略，菲律賓一直是至關重要的。
In July, Manila won an international legal challenge to Beijing’s claims over the South China Sea, a ruling that was widely seen as a major setback to China’s ambitions.
今年7月，菲律賓在一個國際仲裁庭上挑戰中國在南中國海的領土主張時獲得了勝利，這一裁決被普遍認爲代表着中國雄心遭遇一次重大挫折。
Yet it is rather hard for America to defend the legal rights of the Philippines, when Mr Duterte curses Mr Obama in public and then curtails joint naval patrols.
然而，當杜特爾特公開咒罵奧巴馬、接着又縮短美菲海軍聯合巡邏時，想讓美國捍衛菲律賓的合法權利，是相當困難的。
The US does have other partners in the region.
誠然，美國在該地區有其他合作伙伴。
Last week Japan announced that it will carry out naval patrols with the US in the South China Sea.
上週，日本宣佈將與美國在南中國海開展海軍聯合巡邏。
But a partnership with Tokyo, which is locked in a bitter rivalry with Beijing, makes the maritime issue look more like a power struggle with China, rather than a question of international law, particularly since the Russians and Chinese have just completed their own joint exercises in the South China Sea.
但是，與當前正和中國激烈對抗的日本聯手，使這個海上問題看起來更像是與中國的力量角逐，而不是國際法問題，特別是考慮到俄羅斯和中國剛在南中國海完成了聯合演習。
Under the circumstances, many Southeast Asian countries will be tempted to stand to one side rather than risk being caught up in a clash of regional titans.
在這種情況下，許多東南亞國家將想要選邊站，而不是冒被捲入地區巨頭衝突的風險。
The sense that America’s pivot to Asia is in trouble is compounded by the growing doubts about the fate of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade deal promoted by the US.
人們感到，美國的重返亞洲戰略已陷入困境，更糟糕的是，人們對於美國推動的貿易協議《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)的命運感到越來越懷疑。
The TPP brings together 12 nations, including Japan and the US, but excludes China.
TPP有12個成員國，包括日本和美國，但卻把中國排除在外。
The deal is widely seen as a counter to China’s growing economic dominance in the Asia-Pacific region.
該協定被廣泛認爲是對抗中國在亞太地區不斷增強的經濟主導地位的一項武器。
Pleading the case for the TPP before the US Congress, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, argued: Long term its strategic value is awesome.
在美國國會爲TPP辯護時，日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)提出：從長期來看，TPP的戰略價值是巨大的。
But the entreaties of Mr Abe and Mr Obama seem unlikely to save the TPP.
但安倍和奧巴馬的懇求似乎不太可能保住TPP不流產。
Donald Trump and Mrs Clinton, the two main candidates for the US presidency, have come out against the deal.
美國兩位主要的總統候選人唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)和希拉里都已公開反對TPP。
Mr Obama may still try to force it through Congress before he leaves office.
奧巴馬在離任前或許仍會嘗試強力促使國會通過TPP。
But the chances of the TPP surviving the current climate of protectionism in America seem small.
但在當前美國的保護主義氛圍下，TPP存活下來的可能性似乎很小。
If the US fails to pass the TPP, America’s Asian allies will feel badly let down.
如果美國未能通過TPP，其亞洲盟友會感到非常失望。
They have risked antagonising Beijing by signing up to a US-led initiative.
他們冒着激怒中國的危險，簽署了這項美國主導下的倡議。
Now Washington may jilt them at the altar.
現在，華盛頓方面或許會在最後關頭拋棄他們。
On a recent visit to the US capital, Lee Hsien Loong, the Singaporean prime minister, called the TPP a litmus test of (American) credibility and seriousness of purpose in Asia.
不久前，新加坡總理李顯龍(Lee Hsien Loong)在訪問美國首都時，把TPP稱爲一塊考驗（美國在亞洲）可信度和目標嚴肅性的試金石。
He pointed out that the implications go well beyond trade, extending to the credibility of America’s security guarantees to its Asian allies.
他指出，其影響遠遠超出貿易範疇，延伸到美國給予亞洲盟友的安全保證的可信度。
Unfortunately, long-term strategic thinking is almost impossible in the current maelstrom of American politics.
遺憾的是，在當前美國的政治大漩渦中，着眼長遠的戰略思考幾乎是不可能的。
As a result, President Obama faces the sad prospect of leaving office with his signature foreign-policy initiative — the pivot to Asia — sinking beneath the Pacific waves.
結果是，美國總統奧巴馬面臨一種悲慘前景：當他卸任時，他標誌性的外交政策倡議——重返亞洲——會沉入太平洋的波濤之下。
