歐智華淡化匯豐重心轉向亞洲戰略

Did Stuart Gulliver get carried away at HSBC’s strategic update in June?

歐智華(Stuart Gulliver) 6月份宣佈匯豐(HSBC)最新戰略時忘乎所以了嗎？

The bank’s chief executive talked enthusiastically about how it would redeploy $200bn of balance sheet capacity into faster-growing markets in Asia — in the Pearl River Delta region of China in particular.

匯豐的這位行政總裁當時熱情地談到，該行將如何把2000億美元的資產負債表能力(balance sheet capacity)調配到亞洲較快速增長的市場，尤其是中國珠江三角洲地區。

Yet as he presented interim results yesterday, Mr Gulliver said he wanted to adjust the message.

然而，在昨天介紹中期業績時，歐智華表示他想修正這一信息。

“A number of people came away with the impression that we were trying to jam $290bn of risk-weighted assets into the Pearl River Delta,” he told analysts. “There was a wrongful interpretation that the entire redeployment was in Asia because of the way we presented it on June 9. That is what I’m trying to correct.”

歐智華對分析師說：“一些人當時得出的印象是，我們試圖將2900億美元風險加權資產注入珠三角。受我們6月9日的表達方式影響，有人誤以爲這些資產將全部重新部署到亞洲。這就是我想要糾正的。”

In fact Mr Gulliver said that out of $290bn in risk-weighted assets that it plans to cut from underperforming activities, particularly in its investment bank, he was only confident of being able to redeploy about $150bn. Asia, he said, would account for about half of the Money to be redeployed, with the rest being invested in Europe, the Middle East and Latin America.

事實上，歐智華表示，在匯豐計劃從表現不佳的業務（特別是投行業務）中削減下來的2900億美元風險加權資產中，他只確信能夠重新部署約1500億美元。他說，亞洲會從這筆錢中分走一半左右，剩下的將投資到歐洲、中東以及拉丁美洲。

Some analysts see this as an effort to dilute slightly its “pivot to Asia” strategy after the gyrations of China stock markets amid broader concerns about the country’s economic outlook.

一些分析師認爲，歐智華這麼說是在輕微淡化匯豐“將重心轉向亞洲”的戰略。此前，由於中國的經濟前景引發了更廣泛的擔憂，中國股市出現了大幅震盪。

“They are changing their tack on the redeployment of capital, and it looks like they are now not quite so keen on China after all the market volatility of recent weeks,” Chirantan Barua, banks analyst at Bernstein, says.

伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)銀行業分析師奇蘭坦巴魯阿(Chirantan Barua)表示：“在重新部署資本的問題上，他們正在調整戰略。在近幾週中國市場出現這麼大波動後，他們現在似乎對中國不那麼熱衷了。”

Mr Gulliver, however, said that he did not see “anything alarming” from the market upheaval in China, and denied that this had made any impact on its strategy.

但歐智華表示，他沒有從中國的市場動盪中看到“任何令人警惕的信號”，並否認這對匯豐的戰略造成了任何影響。

Indeed, the increased volumes in Chinese equities trading due to an opening up of mainland markets to foreign investors helped HSBC to beat expectations in its first half results, as pre-tax profits rose 10 per cent.

事實上，由於中國向外國投資者開放境內市場，中國股票的交易量有所增加，推動匯豐今年上半年業績超出預期，稅前利潤上升了10%。

This matters for several reasons.

這件事之所以重要，有如下幾條原因。

First, decisions of where to reallocate vast chunks of HSBC’s $2.5tn balance sheet will have a big impact on the shape of what Europe’s biggest bank looks like in the future.

首先，有關將匯豐2.5萬億美元資產負債表中的大塊資產調配到何處的決定，將對這家歐洲最大銀行未來的形態產生很大影響。

Second, HSBC’s board continues to review whether to move its headquarters out of the UK.

其次，匯豐董事會仍在評估是否把總部遷出英國。

Chairman Douglas Flint dismissed the idea that this decision could be swayed by “evolutionary events” like the volatility in China stock markets.

有觀點認爲，該決定可能受中國股市波動等“發展中事態”左右，匯豐董事長範智廉(Douglas Flint)對此予以了駁斥。

However, the UK government recently promised to change the way its bank levy is calculated, shifting from global assets to domestic balance sheets of UK banks and handing a hefty tax cut to HSBC from 2020 in the process.

然而，英國政府最近發誓要改變銀行稅的計算方法，將徵稅對象從英國銀行的全球資產改爲其國內資產，匯豐將因此從2020年起得到大幅減稅。

The bank backed away from a thinly veiled threat earlier this year to sell its UK retail bank, which it is being forced to hive off under ring-fencing laws. Mr Gulliver said it made good returns in the UK and its operation there was “a bank we’d like to keep”.

今年早些時候匯豐躲開了一個顯而易見的威脅、沒有出售其英國零售銀行——按“圈護法”要求，匯豐須將英國零售銀行剝離出去。歐智華表示，匯豐在英國取得了良好回報，而且其英國銀行是“我們希望保留的一個銀行”。

Some analysts are asking if Mr Gulliver’s promise to distribute half of the bank’s redeployed resources outside Asia might indicate a slight cooling of interest in a potential move of the HQ back to Hong Kong, where it was founded.

一些分析師在問，歐智華承諾要將匯豐重新部署的半數資產配置到亞洲以外地區，是否說明對總部可能遷回香港的興趣略有降溫？香港是匯豐的創建地。

Mr Gulliver played this down.

歐智華對這個問題作了淡化處理。

“I wouldn’t read anything into is not related to any feeling of a slowdown in the Chinese economy because of the sell-off in the stock market,” he said.

他說：“我不會作任何這方面的解讀……它與任何由股市拋售引起的中國經濟放緩感受無關。”

Third, Mr Gulliver raised the prospect of returning excess capital to shareholders if the bank could not find sufficiently attractive opportunities to redeploy capital.

第三，歐智華還提出了這樣一種可能性，即如果該行無法找到足夠有吸引力的投資機會重新配置資本，它有可能把多餘的資本返還給股東。

Iain Mackay, finance director, said this would be a decision for the end of 2016, once most of the heavy lifting in the restructuring is completed.

匯豐財務總監麥榮恩(Iain Mackay)表示，這或將成爲2016年底的一項決定，屆時重組中的重大任務多數都已完成。

But the bank is accruing capital at a healthy rate, and its common equity tier one ratio — a measure of financial strength — increased from 11.1 per cent to 11.6 per cent in the first half of the year.

不過，該行正以一種穩健的速度積累資本，今年上半年其普通股一級資本比率（衡量銀行資金實力的一種指標）已從11.1%上升至11.6%。

After HSBC completes the sale of its Brazilian subsidiary to local rival Bradesco for $5.2bn that it announced on Monday, its common equity tier one ratio is expected to move above its 12 per cent target.

週一，該行宣佈將把其巴西分行作價52億美元出售給巴西國內的布拉德斯科銀行(Bradesco)。該交易完成後，該行普通股一級資本比率預計會超過該行制定的12%的目標。

Mr Barua at Bernstein warns that investors have been excited about the potential for HSBC to return excess capital before and been disappointed when regulators raised their requirements for bank equity levels.

伯恩斯坦的巴魯阿警告說，此前投資者一直對匯豐返還多餘資本的可能性抱有熱切的期待，當監管機構提高對銀行股本水平的要求時，他們感到了失望。

But if HSBC comes through unscathed from the Bank of England’s stress tests later this year, which are focused on the potential impact of a Chinese crash, investors are likely to become increasingly excited about the potential for a return of capital.

不過，如果匯豐安然無恙地通過英國央行(BoE)今年晚些時候的壓力測試（這次壓力測試將主要聚焦中國崩盤的潛在影響），投資者很可能會對返還資本的前景抱有更加熱切的期待。