天有不測風雲 氣候變化對企業有何風險

The Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed regulations to reduce carbon emissions are generating heated debate about climate change. But one thing is clear: companies need to do much more to explain to investors the climate-related risks they face and how they are managing them.
美國環境保護署(Environmental Protection Agency)擬定的減少碳排放提案正在引發一場關於氣候變化的激烈辯論。但有一點是明確的：企業需要向投資者更加詳盡地解釋它們面臨的氣候變化相關風險，以及它們正在採取的管控措施。

Extreme weather events appear to be getting more severe and more frequent, as the recent drought in California and floods in Europe reminded us. Weather events accounted for 90% of natural catastrophe losses in 2013, causing over $120 billion of losses, according to reinsurance company Munich Re. In 2012, the overall effect of climate events on the US and European economies is estimated at more than $5 trillion for each region, or over 30% of their GDP.
加州近期的大幹旱和歐洲的洪水提醒我們，極端天氣事件正變得越來越嚴重，越來越頻繁。根據慕尼黑再保險公司(Munich Re)提供的數據，天氣事件佔2013年自然災害損失的90%，共造成1,200多億美元的損失。該公司估計，2012年，氣候事件對美國和歐洲經濟的總體影響均超過5萬億美元，佔各自國內生產總值(GDP)的30%以上。

The investment community – along with regulators – has woken up to this threat. It is demanding more information from companies about their exposure to climate events, as well as the prospective cost of their carbon emissions.
除了監管機構以外，投資界也已經意識到了這種威脅。投資人正在要求公司披露更多關於氣候事件風險的信息，以及碳排放的預期成本。

A wide range of businesses – not just insurers and carbon intensive corporations – are being pressed to demonstrate how they are managing these long-term issues. Their future cost of capital will in part hinge on the answers they give.
身處多種行業的公司——不僅僅是保險公司和碳排放密集型企業——正在被要求披露它們管控這些長期問題的措施。這些企業未來的資金成本在某種程度上將取決於它們給出的答案。

Unfortunately, too many businesses still provide investors and other stakeholders only a partial picture of the risks they face. And they offer an incomplete explanation of how they are mitigating these exposures.
不幸的是，太多的企業仍然只爲投資者及其他利益相關者提供各自面臨風險的部分圖景。在闡述它們如何減輕這些風險的時候，這些企業的解釋是不完整的。

The corporate sector is nimble at meeting growing investor demand for environmentally-friendly assets. Private sector companies’ issuance of green bonds, which fund environmentally beneficial capital investment, is growing rapidly. According to Standard & Poor’s, it is likely to double this year to around $20 billion.
公司部門正在非常敏捷地滿足投資者對環境友好型資產不斷增長的需求。私營公司發行的綠色債券（這類債券的所籌資金用來資助有利於環境的資本投資）急劇增長。據標準普爾公司(Standard & Poor’s)估計，這類債券的規模今年很可能翻一番，達到200億美元左右。

However, businesses are proving much slower in providing investors with robust information about their wider climate and carbon-related risks.
但事實證明，就向投資者提供更廣泛的氣候和碳排放相關風險的可靠信息而言，許多企業的動作要慢得多。

Climate risk, along with the impact of carbon pricing, carries direct and indirect exposure for a company. It potentially affects its entire value chain, from production through to distribution and sales. Floods and blizzards disrupt suppliers and dislocate manufacturing, but they also can curb consumption.
氣候風險，以及碳定價的影響，將導致公司面臨直接和間接風險。從生產到流通和銷售，這類風險可能會影響公司的整個價值鏈。洪水和暴風往往會打亂供應商的部署，使得製造流程陷入混亂，還可能抑制消費。

Over the long-term, extreme weather can damage both profitability and asset valuations in unexpected ways. Companies that fail to take account of these risks may suffer significant stress and have little flexibility to manage their exposure.
從長遠來看，極端天氣會以意想不到的方式損害企業的盈利能力和資產估值。不重視這些風險的公司可能會承受巨大壓力，並且很難靈活地管控它們面臨的風險。

Companies frequently focus on communicating their direct liability to carbon emissions regulation, notably the net cost of carbon permits they are required to hold under emissions trading schemes. These costs are important and, notwithstanding the recent decline in carbon credit prices, are likely to grow over time. But many companies ignore the – potentially much larger – costs of a carbon liability being passed down the supply chain or changing end demand for products and services.
公司通常很注重披露碳排放法規施加給它們的直接負債，特別是爲獲得排放交易計劃要求持有的碳排放許可證而支付的淨成本。這些成本的重要性無需贅言，儘管碳排放信用額的價格最近有所跌落，但隨着時間的推移，這些成本很可能將繼續增長。但很多公司忽視了一項正在沿着供應鏈傳遞，或者正在改變產品和服務終端需求的碳負債成本，而這項成本可能要大得多。Energy, materials, industrial and utility companies have the highest direct carbon intensity and therefore the largest regulatory exposure to emissions compliance schemes.
能源，材料，工業和公用事業公司具有最高的直接碳排放強度。因此，碳排放計劃施加給這些企業的監管風險也是最大的。

But the property and financial services sectors are also exposed to climate risk due to the life cycle of buildings and the nature of their long-term investments. All sectors, in fact, are affected in varying degrees, to climate and carbon risks.
但是，由於建築物的生命週期和長期投資的性質，房地產和金融服務行業亦面臨氣候風險。事實上，所有行業都或多或少地受到氣候和碳風險的影響。

Conventional financial analysis of carbon risk overlooks the “shadow liability” caused by potential carbon price liabilities from indirect exposures across the value chain.
針對碳風險所做的傳統財務分析往往會忽略“影子負債”——它是整個價值鏈面臨的間接風險有可能產生的碳價格負債所導致的。

This shadow liability is hard to analyze, as data is patchy and valuation methods vary. Inconsistent disclosure requirements around the world do not help either.
我們很難分析這種影子負債，因爲相關數據非常零散，估值方法也不盡相同。世界各地不一致的披露要求同樣無助於這種分析。

In the U.S., the SEC requires firms that file annual reports to communicate material climate change risks. In April, the European Parliament approved new rules that will require large listed firms to publish environment and social data in their reporting to investors. But this falls far short of a comprehensive and coordinated disclosure regime for companies’ overall exposure to carbon and climate risk.
美國證券交易委員會(SEC)要求企業在提交年度報告時披露實質性的氣候變化風險。今年4月份，歐洲議會批准一項新規則，要求大型上市公司在它們提交給投資者的報告中發佈環境和社會數據。但僅憑這些措施，還遠遠不足以形成一個全面且可協調，針對公司面臨的全部碳和氣候風險的披露機制。

Investors, meanwhile, are not standing still. They are starting to conduct their own analysis of indirect carbon price risk and its impact on corporate investment returns and credit quality.
與此同時，投資者並沒有無動於衷。他們自己已經開始分析間接的碳價格風險及其對企業投資回報率和信貸質量的影響。

Independent analysts who serve them are doing the same. S&P, for instance, is seeking to assess the effects of carbon price risk on a company’s creditworthiness by considering the direct and indirect impact of profitability, asset and liability valuation, and cash flow. Organizations like the international Carbon Disclosure Project are surveying companies about their environmental exposures and scoring them accordingly.
服務於投資者的獨立分析師也正在從事這類分析。比如，標準普爾公司正在估算盈利能力，資產及負債估值和現金流遭受的直接和間接影響，以評估碳價格風險對公司信譽的影響。像碳信息披露項目(Carbon Disclosure Project)這類國際組織正在調查公司面臨的環境風險，並給予它們相應的評分。

Some large companies are responding. Exxon Mobil recently became the first oil and gas producer to publish details of its climate risk exposure from stranded assets (reserves that it could not exploit if regulation is tightened). But most businesses are yet to accept that climate and carbon risks are ever more material to corporate performance and value.
一些大公司正在作出迴應。埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)最近成爲第一家詳盡發佈其擱淺資產（即如果調控收緊，該公司就不能開採的資產儲量）氣候風險信息的石油和天然氣生產商。但大多數企業尚未接受氣候和碳風險對企業績效和價值的影響將日益加大這個事實。

Business leaders should acknowledge that climate risk and carbon liabilities are here to stay and, in all probability, set to grow. If they cannot demonstrate effective assessment and management of these short-term and long-term liabilities, their creditworthiness may suffer and their financing costs will rise.
企業領導者應該認識到，氣候風險和碳負債是切實存在的，而且註定會繼續增大。如果他們不能有效地評估和管理這些短期和長期負債，公司信譽或將遭受重創，融資成本就將上升。

Capital markets participants traditionally have short term horizons. But environmental change is a long-term issue that they cannot ignore. Over time, it will play an increasing role in determining both financial risk and return.
資本市場的參與者通常只關注短期圖景。但環境變化是一個不容忽視的長期問題。隨着時間的推移，環境變化在決定財務風險和回報方面的作用將越來越大。

Neeraj Sahai is president of Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services.
本文作者Neeraj Sahai是標準普爾評級服務公司總裁。