印尼原礦出口禁令 簡介推高全球鎳價

Nickel made further gains yesterday as market participants continued to assess the impact of Indonesia’s ban on exports of unprocessed mineral ore.

隨着市場參與者繼續評估印尼原礦石出口禁令的影響，鎳價昨日進一步上漲。

Nickel for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 1.3 per cent to $14,400 a tonne, extending gains since the start of the year to more than 7 per cent.

倫敦金屬交易所(LME)三個月期鎳價上漲高達1.3%，達到每噸1.44萬美元，比今年年初高出逾7%。

Indonesia is the world’s biggest exporter of nickel and the leading supplier to China. Its high grade laterite nickel is used by Chinese mills to produce nickel pig iron, a cheaper alternative for making stainless steel.

印尼是世界第一大鎳出口國，也是中國的主要供應國。印尼的高品位紅土鎳礦被中國的冶煉廠用於生產含鎳生鐵，一種製造不鏽鋼的廉價替代性原料。

Some analysts have played down the significance of the ban as China has been stockpiling ore. Chinese buyers are estimated to have purchased about 32m tonnes of ore – equivalent to a year’s production.

一些分析師表示上述禁令並不重要，因爲中國一直在囤積礦石。據估計，中國的買家購買了約3200萬噸礦石，相當於一年的生產所需。

But, according to Macquarie, the Chinese stocks are partly held by traders who are likely to mark up the price of the ore, which could have a positive knock-on effect for the refined nickel market.

但麥格理(Macquarie)認爲，中國的礦石庫存部分在貿易商手中，他們可能會趁機提價，這可能對精煉鎳市場產生積極連帶影響。

“We would not rule out a potential 50 per cent increase in prices, which would lift the break-even for [rotary kiln – electric furnace] nickel pig iron from $12,000 to $15,000,” the bank said in a report. “Given this supply source is required for the market, refined nickel prices would have to rise in order to pass this through.”

麥格理在一份報告中說：“我們將不會排除價格上漲50%的可能性，這可能會使（無論是熱爐冶煉法還是電路冶煉法生產的）含鎳生鐵的損益平衡價格從每噸1.2萬美元漲至1.5萬美元。鑑於這一供應源是市場所必需的，精煉鎳價格必然會上漲，以便轉嫁原料價格的上漲。”

Other base metals were also in demand yesterday. Lead for three month delivery on the LME rose 0.5 per cent to $2,187.50 a tonne, while zinc added 0.1 per cent to $2,071 a tonne.

其他一些賤金屬昨日也受到追捧。倫敦金屬交易所三個月期鉛價上漲0.5%，至每噸2187.50美元，而鋅價上漲0.1%，至每噸2071美元。

The exceptions were copper and aluminium, which fell 0.45 per cent to $7,290 a tonne and 0.9 per cent to $1,762.50 a tonne respectively. A range of exemptions mean copper is unlikely to be significantly affected by the Indonesia export ban, although that view is starting to be challenged by traders.

僅有的例外是銅和鋁，這兩種金屬的價格分別下跌0.45%（至每噸7290美元）和0.9%（至每噸1762.50美元）。一系列豁免條款意味着印尼原礦出口禁令對銅的影響不太可能顯著，儘管這一觀點已開始受到貿易商的挑戰。

While most producers will be able to export copper concentrate until 2017 they will be subject to escalating taxes that are yet to be clarified, but which could reach 60 per cent in two years.

儘管大多數生產商在2017年底前可以繼續出口銅精礦，但它們將面臨不斷增加的稅率——具體細節尚未得到澄清，但稅率有可能在兩年後達到60%。

Assuming the rumoured figures are true, margins at the country’s two biggest copper mines, Grasberg and Batu Hijau, will suffer. This could result in output being cut until downstream facilities – smelters – are completed, say traders. Indonesia accounts for about 3 per cent of global nickel supply, suggests Goldman Sachs.

假設傳言中的上述數字屬實，那麼印尼最大的兩座銅礦格拉斯伯格(Grasberg)和Batu Hijau的利潤率將受到打擊。貿易商表示，在下游設施（冶煉爐）建成投產之前，這可能導致產出下降。高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示，印尼佔全球鎳供應的大約3%。