逆向投資基金欲從中國股市掘金

While most investors are staying clear of China's poorly performing stocks, one of Asia's biggest homegrown money managers is planning a fund to do just the opposite: embrace unloved Chinese equities.

當多數投資者都在遠離表現不佳的中國股市時，亞洲最大的本土基金公司之一惠理集團有限公司(Value Partners Group Ltd., 簡稱：惠理集團 )卻在計劃推出一隻反其道而行的基金，專門投資不受青睞的中國股市。

Value Partners Group Ltd., a $10.5 billion money manager based in Hong Kong, plans to launch a fund in the third quarter to snap up shares in companies like coal miners and steelmakers. They've been big decliners since China started making noise about pollution and taking aim at energy-intensive heavy industries.

惠理集團計劃在今年第三季度推出一隻基金，以便大舉買進煤炭、鋼材等題材的股票。自從中國開始強調污染問題並把矛頭指向高耗能的重工業以來，這類股票一直大幅下跌。總部位於香港的惠理集團目前管理着105億美元的資產。

'They are too severely punished, to the point where it's worth thinking about deep value buying,' said Cheah Cheng Hye, chairman and co-chief investment officer of Value Partners Group Ltd., which will likely look to raise at least US$50 million for its contrarian fund.

惠理集團主席兼聯席首席投資長謝清海表示，這類股票的跌幅過大，以至於可以考慮買進這些存在深度價值的股票。惠理集團可能考慮爲這隻基金籌資至少5,000萬美元。

Other areas where Mr. Cheah says he sees value: automobile and engine companies and real-estate developers. The latter have sunk as the government cracks down on shadow banking--a term covering a wide range of financing activities alongside the traditional banking system, and a big funding source for developers in recent years.

在謝清海看來，存在投資價值的類股還包括汽車和發動機生產企業以及房地產開發商。中國政府打壓影子銀行的措施令房地產開發商類股遭遇重挫。影子銀行業覆蓋了與傳統銀行業並存的廣泛融資活動，並且在近幾年成爲房地產開發商的一大資金來源。

The benchmark Shanghai index is down 37% over the past four years amid lackluster corporate earnings. Domestic investors--the major market participants--have turned their backs after being burned in equities and are deploying their savings instead in lucrative real estate and wealth-management products.

由於企業盈利情況乏善可陳，過去四年來，基準上證綜合指數累計下跌了37%。作爲主要的市場參與者，中國國內投資者在經歷了投資股市的挫敗後撤出資金，轉而將資金投入利潤豐厚的房地產市場和理財產品。

Value Partners has struggled this year, with its flagship product, Value Partners Classic Fund (A Units)--which has delivered an average annual return of 16% since 1993--down 6.1% as of last Thursday, worse than the benchmark MSCI China's 5.1% decline. The firm takes a value-investing approach, seeking to pick up undervalued stocks.

惠理集團今年也陷入困境，截至上週四，該集團旗下投資A股的旗艦產品惠理價值基金(Value Partners Classic Fund)下跌了6.1%，大於同期MSCI明晟中國指數5.1%的跌幅。而自1993年以來，該基金的平均年回報率達到16%。該集團採用了價值投資法，專門挑選估值偏低的股票。

'We had a very difficult [time in last] few months,' Mr. Cheah said. '[But] value investing has long summer and short winter in this part of the world.'

謝清海說，過去幾個月，惠理集團經歷了非常艱難的時期，但對於投資中國股市，價值投資法可謂利大於弊。

Recently, he says, he has started to see turnaround signals. 'Since the second half of March, there are signs that [outperformers] like Internet stocks that people used to like so now losing ground compared to the value stocks we are investing in,' he said. 'But I do not know whether it's a new trend or it's just a blip'

最近他表示，他已經開始看到轉變信號。他說，自3月下半月以來，有跡象顯示錶現強於大盤的股票（如人們過去非常青睞的互聯網類股）現在相對於他們正在投資的價值型股票來說正落於下風。但他說，他不知道這是新的趨勢還是曇花一現的走勢。

The 60-year old Malaysian-born Mr. Cheah co-founded Value Partners with his partner V-Nee Yeh, who also established Argyle Street Management, a distressed-asset specialist, and is chairman of hedge fund Cheetah Investment Management. Mr. Cheah plans to grow Value Partners' assets under management to US$20 billion to US$30 billion in five to 10 years, and is opening another office in Singapore after expanding in mainland China and Taiwan in the past couple of years.

現年60歲、馬來西亞出生的謝清海與其合作伙伴葉維義(V-Nee Yeh)共同創建了惠理集團，後者還創建了不良資產管理公司Argyle Street Management，同時是對衝基金捷達投資管理有限公司(Cheetah Investment Management)的主席。謝清海計劃在五至十年內使惠理集團旗下管理的資產增加至200億-300億美元，同時繼過去幾年在中國大陸和臺灣擴展業務之後在新加坡再開設另一處辦公室。

For the contrarian fund, the company is also at looking at banks, which have fallen on worries that a slowing economy will translate into more bad debt.

公司還在爲該反向策略基金尋找銀行股投資機會，中國的銀行股已因有關經濟放緩將帶來更多壞賬的憂慮而紛紛下挫。

'Banks are trading below book because of fears of hard landing and a surge in nonperforming loans,' Mr. Cheah said. 'But our research team finds that even if NPLs go up to 10%, it's already in the price. And now official NPL is still 2%.'

謝清海說，由於市場擔心中國將出現硬着陸和不良貸款規模激增，銀行類股股價已低於賬面價值。但他說，他們的研究團隊發現，即便不良貸款比例上升至10%，也已經被股價所消化，而現在官方公佈的不良貸款比例仍僅爲2%。

Then there are 'old-economy companies in the export sector.' Much loved in the 1990s, he said, they've been badly beaten up.

他說，此外還有出口領域的傳統型公司。它們中有很多在二十世紀九十年代倍受青睞，現在遭遇重挫。

'People think that exporters are either dead or dying, or moved to Bangladesh,' he said. 'But some of these guys are doing very well.'

謝清海說，人們認爲出口商不是完蛋了就是快要完蛋了，或者都遷往孟加拉國了。他說，有一些出口商經營得非常好。

Mr. Cheah didn't specify individual stocks that the new fund will invest in. The Hong Kong-listed shares of China's two biggest lenders--Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp.--have fallen 24% and 16% respectively, since the end of 2009. They are barely trading at their estimated 2014 book value, or net asset value.

謝清海沒有具體透露新基金將投資哪些個股。2009年年底以來，中國工商銀行股份有限公司(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., 簡稱：工商銀行 )和中國建設銀行股份有限公司(China Construction Bank Co., 簡稱：建設銀行 )這兩家中國最大的銀行在香港交易的股票價格分別下跌了24%和16%。這兩隻股票目前的價格基本與2014年的預期每股賬面價值（即淨資產價值）持平。

In the longer term, Mr. Cheah said, he sees much more investment opportunity in China than ever. Over the past 20 years, China's stock market has disappointed many investors, with prices failing to reflect the fast growth in the economy.

謝清海說，長期來看，目前中國的投資機會要比以往任何時候都多。過去20年，中國股市的表現令許多投資者失望，股價未能反映出經濟快速增長的勢頭。

'Small- and medium-size companies or the private sectors are the guys that were making good money, creating employment and high returns. But many of these guys are not even listed,' he said.

謝清海說，中小型企業或者私營企業的盈利情況不錯，這些公司創造了就業機會，並獲得了高回報，但許多這樣的公司還沒有上市。

But now President Xi Jinping's administration is pushing an economic overhaul that will allow more private-sector businesses, such as hospital operators and pharmaceutical makers, to raise funds in the capital market. Businesses, including state-owned ones, will be under pressure to operate more efficiently--meaning improved profit margins despite a slowdown in sales growth.

然而中國國家主席習近平當前推行的經濟改革將允許更多私人領域企業在資本市場上融資，例如醫院運營商和藥品製造商等。包括國有企業在內的企業將面臨提高營運效率的壓力，這意味着儘管銷售增速放緩，但利潤率將提高。

'The way forward is very good,' Mr. Cheah said.

謝清海說，未來的前景非常光明。