中國債券比歐洲的債券基金更適宜投資嗎
Investors fleeing the yield-parched debt markets of the developed world are being forced to explore some unfamiliar frontiers, including China’s huge domestic bond market.
由於發達世界債券市場收益率枯竭，投資者紛紛逃離，被迫探索一些不熟悉的前沿市場，包括中國龐大的國內債券市場。
But how much exoticism is acceptable as a trade-off for higher yields? Chinese government bonds, backed by strong ratings from international rating agencies, are considered safe enough by some (see first chart). The 10-year bond is currently yielding 2.82 per cent, eclipsing the welter of negative-yielding issues around the developed world.
但爲了獲取更高收益率投資多少具有異域色彩的債券是可以接受的？中國政府債券有國際評級機構高評級的支持，被一些人視爲足夠安全（見第一張圖）。當前十年期政府債券的收益率是2.82%，讓發達世界一衆負收益率債券黯然失色。
But how about buying a piece of the $2tn in debt issued by one of the world’s most indebted corporate sectors as default rates surge and domestic credit rating agencies continue to claim that everything is just fine?
但在違約率飆升和國內信用評級機構仍在宣稱一切都好之際，買點中國企業部門發行的總額達2萬億美元的債券如何呢？中國企業部門的負債額排在全球最高之列。
Jeffrey Qi, portfolio manager at E-Fund, one of China’s largest asset managers with $150bn under management, says there are attractive returns to be had for yield refugees from Europe and elsewhere as long as they play by Chinese rules.
易方達(E Fund)投資組合經理Jeffrey Qi表示，只要按照中國規則行事，來自歐洲和其他地區的收益“難民”就會獲得可觀收益。易方達是中國最大的資產管理公司之一，旗下管理着1500億美元的資產。
“There have been several credit events in China this year, but our fund has not been hit by any of them,” Mr Qi said. The company’s RMB Bond Fund had returned an annualised 7.1 per cent since inception in 2012 and an annualised 3.5 per cent so far this year, he said. About 80 per cent of the fund is invested in corporate bonds.
Jeffrey Qi表示：“中國今年出了數起信用事件，但我們的基金沒有遭受衝擊。”他說，易方達的人民幣債券基金自2012年成立以來獲得了7.1%的年化收益率，今年迄今的年化收益率爲3.5%。該基金大約80%的資金投資於企業債券。
He puts the performance down to a healthy scepticism towards China’s Panglossian domestic credit rating agencies, which have awarded an investment grade rating to 99.5 per cent of all rated publicly issued debt outstanding.
他將業績下滑歸因於對中國國內過分樂觀的信用評級機構的合理懷疑。被這些機構評爲投資級別的債券，佔到所有接受它們評級的公開發行債券未清償總額的99.5%。
“We have our own internal rating system for the companies that we invest in,” Mr Qi added. “There is a big difference between our ratings and those of the domestic ratings companies.”
Jeffrey Qi補充稱：“對於我們所投資的公司，我們有自己的內部評級系統。我們的評級與國內評級公司的評級有很大區別。”
E-Fund’s internal ratings are much less sparing of corporate egos than those of its rating agency counterparts, with many “junk” ratings awarded according to a 22-notch scale. The fund’s skill lies in using on-the-ground research to assess a company’s viability beyond its published financial figures, Mr Qi said.
易方達的內部評級系統比評級機構更爲嚴格——按照其22檔的評級制度，許多企業債屬於“垃圾”級別。Jeffrey Qi表示，其技巧在於根據實地研究、而不只是公開發布的財務數據來評估一家公司的生存能力。
Nevertheless, the idea of snapping up pieces of corporate Chinese debt is not proving to be an easy sell overseas. For one thing, the depreciation of the renminbi currency against the US dollar since mid-April has taken the shine off renminbi-denominated investments.
然而，有關趕緊購買中國企業債的說法在海外難以叫人信服。一方面，今年4月中旬以來人民幣兌美元貶值降低了以人民幣計價的投資的吸引力。
For another, there is concern over the lack of transparency among Chinese corporations and the failing finances of many local governments, which are prevalent owners of debt-issuing companies.
另一方面，人們擔心中國企業缺乏透明度，以及許多地方政府財政困難——地方政府常常是債券發行公司的所有者。
“What you are likely going to see is selective defaults over the coming years,” said Peter Kinsella, head of emerging market research at Commerzbank in London. “Effectively this problem is so large that you are likely to see a zombiefication of the state-owned enterprise sector in China with huge amounts of debt and non-performing debt.”
德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)駐倫敦的新興市場研究主管彼得•金塞拉(Peter Kinsella)表示：“今後幾年你可能看到的是選擇性的違約。實際上這是個很大的問題，你可能看到中國揹負鉅額債務和不良貸款的國企部門殭屍化。”
When it comes to the idea of buying bonds issued by local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) — companies that raise debt to invest in local government projects — Mr Kinsella gives clear warnings.
就購買地方政府融資平臺(LGFV)發行的債券來說，金塞拉給出了明確的警告。地方政府融資平臺是指舉債投資於地方政府項目的公司。
“No one is going to be interested in local government bonds in China — you could buy Russia 10-year bonds giving you 9.5 per cent in local currency or 4 per cent in dollar bonds,” Mr Kinsella said.
金塞拉表示：“沒有人會對中國地方政府的債券感興趣——你可以買俄羅斯有9.5%收益率的十年期本幣債券，或者收益率4%的美元債券。”
“Local governments have an issue because most of their revenue streams were derived from property sales and that is going to be an issue,” he added. ”There could be local interest for sure, but if you are trying to push local government bonds outside China I think that will be a hard sell.”
他補充稱：“中國地方政府有一個問題，因爲它們的收入大多來自賣地，這肯定會成爲問題。國內肯定有人感興趣，但如果你試圖在中國境外推銷地方政府債券，我認爲這會很難。”
The yields offered by local government bonds are somewhat higher than those on central government bonds but opinions diverge on whether or not local governments and their subsidiary LGFVs enjoy an implicit guarantee from Beijing.
地方政府債券的收益率略高於中央政府債券，但地方政府以及它們旗下融資平臺是否獲得中央政府的隱性擔保，人們看法不一。
Anthony Chan, Asian Sovereign Strategist at AllianceBernstein in Hong Kong, sees plenty of opportunities in the Chinese bond market. He said he expects Chinese bonds to be included in international bond indices at an unspecified date after which overseas funds may flow in.
聯博有限公司(AllianceBernstein)駐香港的亞洲主權策略師陳祖傑(Anthony Chan)認爲中國債券市場存在大量機會。他說，中國債券不一定哪一天就會被納入國際債券指數，到時就會有海外資金流入。
JPMorgan, an investment bank, said in February that some $430bn in Chinese bonds could join its widely followed GBI-EM index once certain regulatory hurdles were scrapped. One impediment to entry was a minimum three-month holding period imposed on investors and monthly withdrawal limits, JPMorgan has said.
投行摩根大通(JPMorgan)今年2月表示，一旦消除特定監管障礙，約有4300億美元的中國債券可能納入其被廣泛跟蹤的新興市場政府債券指數(GBI EM)。摩根大通表示，一個納入障礙是投資者最低3個月的鎖定期以及每月的贖回限額。
“We still see the Chinese bond market as very attractive,” Mr Chan said. “If investors take the view that the euro will weaken over time, it would be a strategic decision to allocate a certain amount into the renminbi asset class because it will be in the global index anyway.”
陳祖傑表示：“我們仍然認爲中國債券市場非常有吸引力。如果投資者認爲歐元將會逐漸貶值，配置一定數量的人民幣資產將是具有戰略意義的決定，因爲它終將會被納入全球指數。”
“Mostly government bonds are attracting investors,” Mr Chan said. “For corporate bonds, they need to have a more meaningful rating because now the domestic rating agencies all give triple A.”
陳祖傑說：“政府債券大都對投資者有吸引力。對企業債券來說，它們需要更有意義的評級，因爲現在國內評級機構全都給予AAA評級。”
Mr Chan also said those corporate bonds that enjoy an implicit government guarantee were fairly attractive at a time when default risks are rising. Deciding which companies — beyond a phalanx of 106 centrally owned state-owned enterprises — can claim such a guarantee is, however, a nuanced business.
陳祖傑還表示，在違約風險日益上升之際，那些享有政府隱性擔保的企業債券相當具有吸引力。然而，判斷哪些公司——106家央企以外的企業——可以宣稱有此類擔保是微妙之事。
The default in the northeastern province of Liaoning of Dongbei Special Steel, which is majority-owned by provincial authorities, provides a case in point. The company has defaulted seven times on bond principal and interest payments worth Rmb4.8bn ($715m), challenging the notion that province-level state companies shelter under a government guarantee.
中國東北遼寧省東北特鋼(Dongbei Special Steel)的違約就是很好的一個例子——東北特鋼由省政府部門持有多數股權。該公司已出現7次債券違約，未能償還48億元人民幣（合7.15億美元）的本金和利息，讓省級國企有政府擔保的想法不攻自破。
Still, even with such problems, Mr Qi is confident of the China bond market’s performance. “We should perform a lot better than bond funds concentrated on Europe this year,” he said.
此外，即便存在上述問題，Jeffrey Qi仍對中國債券市場有信心。他說：“今年我們的表現應該比集中部署於歐洲的債券基金好得多。”
