中國面臨"資產負債表衰退"風險

China has launched a fresh effort to boost its flagging economy with cash injections by the central bank, but signs are mounting that monetary stimulus is losing its effectiveness as debt-ridden companies lose their appetite for ­borrowing even at low rates.

中國發起了提振乏力經濟增長的最新努力，由央行注入現金。但越來越多的跡象表明，隨着債務纏身的企業失去對哪怕是低息借款的興趣，貨幣刺激正在失去其有效性。

‘Mini-stimulus’ measures launched in April were focused on increasing the supply of money and credit. Last week the central bank moved to inject $81bn into the system via loans to the five biggest banks. That followed targeted cuts to the required reserve ratio for small banks and a loosening of the regulatory loan-to-deposit ratio that gave banks greater freedom to expand lending.

今年4月出臺的“微刺激”措施聚焦於增加貨幣和信貸供應。上週中國央行採取行動，通過向五大銀行發放貸款，向金融體系注入5000億元人民幣（合810億美元）。此前，中國央行對一些小銀行有針對性地下調了存款準備金率，針對銀行貸存比的監管上限也有所放鬆，使銀行有更大自由度可以擴大放貸。

Authorities want the banks to channel those funds into the real economy, but bankers and analysts say that weak credit creation in recent months is due more to lack of demand from borrowers than to constraints on bank lending.

當局希望銀行將這些資金導向實體經濟，但銀行家和分析師表示，近幾個月信貸疲軟，在更大程度上是因爲借款人缺乏需求，而不是因爲銀行放貸受到制約。

That raises the spectre that China may slip into a so-called “balance-sheet recession”, the kind of economic slump in which monetary policy loses its effectiveness because highly indebted companies concentrate on paying down debt and remain unwilling to borrow even when interest rates fall. Weak demand for goods amid a slowing economy further depresses appetite for investment.

這引發了中國可能陷入所謂“資產負債表衰退”的可怕前景，在這種經濟低迷情形中，貨幣政策失去有效性，因爲債臺高築的企業專注於償還債務，即使利率下降也仍不願借款。經濟放緩之際商品需求疲軟，進一步抑制了投資意願。

“Anyone who runs a company with high leverage is very sensitive to the prospects for final demand,” said Richard Koo, the Nomura economist who pioneered the concept of a balance-sheet recession in his analysis of Japan’s post-bubble stagnation in the 1990s.

“任何在高槓杆下經營公司的人，都對最終需求的前景非常敏感，”野村(Nomura)經濟學家辜朝明(Richard Koo)表示。他在分析日本在20世紀90年代泡沫破滅後陷入的停滯時，率先提出了資產負債表衰退的概念。

He has applied the same analysis to the post-crisis economies of the US, EU and UK, where huge ­expansions of the base money by central banks have largely failed to spur bank lending to the real economy. “If everyone is happy and spending big, then leverage isn’t a big issue,” said Mr Koo. “That was the way Japanese companies operated until the end of the 1980s. But once things reverse, they have to be super cautious. At least some Chinese companies are now acting the same way.”

他對美國、歐盟和英國在危機後的經濟進行了相同的分析，在這些經濟體，央行巨幅擴大貨幣基礎之舉，基本上未能刺激銀行向實體經濟放貸。“如果大家都情緒良好、大筆支出，那麼槓桿不是一個大問題，”辜朝明表示，“日本企業在20世紀80年代末之前就是這樣運作的。但一旦形勢扭轉，它們就得超級謹慎。至少部分中國企業如今也呈現出這種行爲方式。”

Indeed, a central bank survey released on Friday showed that bankers saw declining demand for loans in the third quarter, while a separate survey showed that manufacturers are increasingly pessimistic about the economy.

的確，上週五公佈的一項央行調查顯示，銀行家們看到第三季度貸款需求下降，而另一項調查顯示，製造商對經濟越來越悲觀。

The survey results help to explain data released earlier this month showing that bank loans outstanding rose by only 13.3 per cent year on year in August, the weakest pace since 2005.

這些調查結果有助於解釋本月早些時候發佈的數據，那些數據顯示8月份未償還銀行貸款同比僅增長13.3%，這是2005年以來最疲弱的增幅。

Analysts still believe the Chinese government could spur credit and investment growth with aggressive monetary easing, including a rate cut and so-called “window guidance” from regulators instructing banks to boost lending.

分析師們仍相信中國政府可能出臺激進的貨幣寬鬆政策以刺激信貸和投資增長，包括降息和監管機構指示銀行增加放貸的所謂“窗口指導”。

But bankers say good lending opportunities are scarce, even as regulators have relaxed the enforcement of rules like the maximum 75 per cent loan-to-deposit ratio, which has long served as a big constraint on bank lending.

但銀行家們表示，好的放貸機會很少，儘管監管機構已放寬了規則的執行，如75%的貸存比上限——這個上限長期以來是銀行放貸的一大制約因素。

“The LDR has been relaxed, and liquidity has increased, but it’s still hard to place loans. When the [stimulus] news broke, banks all rushed to buy bonds. The money hasn’t flowed into the real economy,” said an executive at a midsize commercial bank in Shanghai.

“貸存比已經放鬆，流動性有所提高，但仍然很難發放貸款。（刺激）消息傳出後，銀行都爭相購買債券。這些錢並沒有流入實體經濟，”上海一家中型商業銀行的一位高管表示。

Rising debt is at least partly to blame. The massive stimulus Beijing launched in response to the financial crisis sent its overall debt-to-GDP ratio soaring to 251 per cent by the end of June, from 147 per cent at the end of 2008, according to Standard Chartered estimates.

不斷增加的債務至少是部分原因。根據渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)的估算，北京方面爲應對金融危機而出臺的大規模刺激，使中國總體債務與國內生產總值(GDP)之比從2008年底的147%，增至今年6月底的251%。

Mr Koo and others say a fully-fledged balance-sheet recession would require a much steeper fall in Chinese asset prices.

辜朝明等人表示，全面爆發資產負債表衰退的一個前提是，中國出現更劇烈的資產價格下跌。

Property prices have fallen for four straight months, but the magnitude of the fall is still far below the catastrophic collapses seen in Japan in 1990 or the US in 2008. The theory of a balance-sheet recession implies that when impaired corporate balance sheets weaken the private sector’s appetite for borrowing and investment, the government must fill the gap with fiscal spending.

房產價格已連續四個月下跌，但跌幅仍遠低於日本在1990年——或美國在2008年——出現的災難性崩盤。資產負債表衰退理論意味着，當受損的企業資產負債表減弱私營部門的借款和投資意願時，政府必須以財政支出來填補這一缺口。

China dabbled with this approach earlier this year, as the fiscal deficit briefly spiked amid increased spending on rail and other areas. But if private spending weakens further, Chinese policy makers may be forced to overcome their traditional aversion to big fiscal deficits and adopt more muscular stimulus.

中國今年早些時候嘗試過這種做法：鐵路等領域的支出增加，財政赤字短暫飆升。但如果私營部門的支出進一步減弱，中國的政策制定者可能不得不克服歷來對龐大財政赤字抱有的反感，出臺更大力度的刺激。

George Magnus, senior economic adviser for UBS, argues China should welcome the fall in borrowing and accept the growth slowdown as the inevitable cost of preventing a fully-fledged balance-sheet recession down the road.

瑞銀(UBS)高級經濟顧問喬治•馬格努斯(George Magnus)主張，中國應該歡迎借貸下降，並接受增長放緩，視其爲防止未來爆發一場全面資產負債表衰退的必然代價。

“If the credit-creation/debt-accumulation model is permitted to continue for much longer, I think it’s increasingly probable that over-leverage in the non-financial company sector could precipitate an interest-rate insensitive slump in investment,” said Mr Magnus.

“如果信用創造/債務積累模式被允許持續下去，我認爲非金融企業部門的過高槓杆將越來越有可能引發一場對利率不敏感的投資低迷，”馬格努斯表示。