中國整頓影子銀行初顯效果
Beijing has declared a partial victory over shadow banking, which has loomed large over China’s $30tn banking system in recent years, enabling it to pursue looser Monetary policy without exacerbating risks.
The explosive growth of non-bank lending — known as shadow banking — since 2010 created a thick tier of riskier borrowers paying higher rates to a new, lightly regulated sector, raising the prospect of a wave of defaults as the economy slows.
非銀行貸款亦稱“影子銀行”。2010年以來，向這一監管薄弱的新行業支付更高利率、並承擔更高風險的借款者數量大增，從而加大了經濟放緩時發生違約潮的可能性。Data released last month by the People's Bank of China show that credit creation from all sources fell 6 per cent in 2014 from a year earlier, only the third annual decline since collection of data on “total social finance” started in 2002. This fall reflects the slowing growth of non-bank lending, analysts say.
中國央行(PBoC)上月發佈的數據顯示，2014年所有渠道的信貸創造量同比減少6%，爲2002年開始收集“社會融資總量”數據以來，僅有的三個呈現減少態勢的年度之一。分析師表示，這反映出非銀行貸款增長開始放慢。
“Although shadow banking has continued to grow, it has done so more slowly in recent quarters as regulatory measures to rein in the sector’s growth appear to be having an effect,” says Michael Taylor, chief credit officer for Asia-Pacific at Moody’s.
“儘管影子銀行仍在增長，但隨着旨在抑制其擴張的措施開始生效，該行業在近幾個季度的增速已變得非常之低，”穆迪(Moody’s)亞太業務首席信貸官邁克爾•泰勒(Michael Taylor)表示。The steady stream of regulations intended to curb risky off-balance-sheet financing has led to a rebound in the share of new debt channelled through banks, with local-currency bank loans comprising 63 per cent of all new credit last year, the highest level since the stimulus year of 2009.
隨着旨在抑制危險的表外融資的監管規定不斷出臺，以銀行爲渠道的新貸款份額已呈現反彈，本幣銀行貸款佔到去年新增信貸總量的63%，爲2009年以來的最高水平。The regulatory push to channel more credit back on balance sheet is reflected in tweaks that broaden the definition of deposits used to calculate banks’ loan-to-deposit ratios. Previously, the 75 per cent LDR ceiling has been a key motivation for banks to move loans off balance sheet in recent years, analysts say.
監管層引導更多信貸迴歸資產負債表的努力，在微調用於計算銀行存貸比(LDR)的存款定義方面得到了體現。分析師表示，75%的存貸比上限，一直是近年來推動銀行將貸款移出資產負債表的關鍵動力。Among non-bank channels, corporate bonds — which are considered less risky than other forms of non-bank financing due to their higher liquidity and transparency — rose to an all-time high of Rmb23.8tn ($3.8tn) last year, or 15 per cent of all new credit, according to the People’s Bank of China. This propelled bonds past trust loans as the economy’s third-largest source of credit, behind only bank loans and loans between companies.
中國央行數據顯示，在非銀行渠道信貸中，去年公司債（因其流動性和透明度更高，被認爲風險低於其他非銀行融資工具）的規模升高至23.8萬億元人民幣（合3.8萬億美元）的歷史峯值，佔新增信貸總量的15%。這推動債券超過信託貸款、成爲中國經濟的第三大信貸來源，僅次於銀行貸款和公司間借貸。The value of trust loans — which had been the focus of concern over shadow banking because they delivered funds to property developers, local governments and other sectors that banks were trying to avoid — plummeted by more than two-thirds to Rmb517bn ($83bn), for 3 per cent of all new credit.
信託貸款的規模大減逾三分之二，減至5170億元人民幣（合830億美元），佔新增信貸總量的3%。信託貸款一直是影子銀行引發擔憂的核心部分，因爲它把資金髮放給銀行竭力避免的地產開發商、地方政府和其他行業。The regulatory push against risky practices has set the stage for targeted monetary loosening, following GDP data showing China growing at its slowest pace in 24 years in 2014. The drive “should help provide [the PBoC] with more flexibility on future monetary policy with less concern on the potential negative ‘side effects’ if further easing is needed,” Richard Xu, China financials analyst at Morgan Stanley, wrote last month. Indeed, the central bank in January confirmed market rumours that it had recently injected fresh cash into the banking system via its newly created medium-term lending facility.
在GDP數據顯示2014年中國經濟增速爲24年來最低後，中國監管層防控風險的努力，已爲定向貨幣寬鬆做好了準備。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)中國金融業分析師Richard Xu上月寫道，此舉“應有助於在需要進一步寬鬆時，爲（中國央行）提供更大的貨幣政策靈活性，減少對潛在不利‘副作用’的擔憂。”實際上，1月中國央行證實了市場傳聞——其不久前通過新近創設的中期借貸便利(MLF)向銀行體系注入了新的資金。
