英國加入亞投行是誤判過失
The UK’s decision to join China’s new alternative to the World bank has disrupted London’s “special relationship” with the US and left seasoned Sinologists and diplomats scratching their heads.
What does Britain possibly hope to gain by signing up to an institution so clearly aimed at challenging the US-led postwar global order?
加入這樣一家如此明顯旨在挑戰美國領導下戰後全球秩序的機構，英國可能希望從中收穫什麼？The most convincing answer seems to be UK chancellor George Osborne’s desire to place the City of London at the front of the queue of European cities hoping to become offshore financial centres for China and the renminbi.
最令人信服的答案，似乎是英國財政大臣喬治•奧斯本(George Osborne)希望讓倫敦金融城(City of London)在衆多爭取成爲中國以及人民幣離岸金融中心的歐洲城市中名列前茅。
But following the decisions this week by Germany, France and Italy to join the bank, it is unclear how much of a first-mover advantage Britain has got.
但是，在本週德國、法國和意大利決定加入亞投行(AIIB)之後，英國能獲得多大先發優勢尚未可知。Mr Osborne’s explanation that the UK wants to join China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to ensure it is ethical, transparent and efficient is unpersuasive.
奧斯本解釋稱，英國希望加入亞投行以確保該行合乎道德、運轉透明和卓有成效，這樣的說辭並無說服力。For one thing, it is doubtful that China would change the way it operates the AIIB just to please the UK.
首先，中國是否會僅爲了取悅英國而改變亞投行的運營方式，還是個問號。It is inconceivable the UK would have risked public rebuke from Washington only to be turned down in its attempt to join the new bank. But the lukewarm Chinese response does suggest a misjudgment of what might be gained from this move.
難以想象英國會冒着遭受美國公開譴責的風險，到頭來加入這家新銀行的申請卻被拒絕。但是，中國方面不冷不熱的反應表明，英國對此舉所能獲得的收益是存在誤判的。In the case of New Zealand, until this week the only other “western” country to join China’s AIIB, the motivation is clear and rational.
但新西蘭的動機卻是清晰和理智的，新西蘭是到本週爲止申請加入中國主導的亞投行的唯一其他“西方國家”。Wellington is pursuing a traditional “vassal state” policy vis-à-vis Beijing in order to secure its supply of dairy products to the growing Chinese middle class, by far its biggest single market.
新西蘭在對華關係中執行一種傳統的“諸侯國”政策，以確保其向日益壯大的中國中產階層供應乳製品。中國是新西蘭迄今最大單一出口市場。The Kiwi kowtow appears to have worked quite well but British attempts to curry favour are met with a very different response. One prominent Chinese commentator who works at a top government think-tank in Beijing said in international organisations Britain acted as “America’s thug for hire”.
英國式“磕頭作揖”似乎很管用，但英國博取歡心的努力遭遇了迥然不同的反應。一位在北京一家頂級政府智庫工作的中國知名評論人士表示，英國在國際組織裏有時充當“美國打手”角色。To understand the sentiment behind such remarks, British policy makers need a clear understanding of history and the way it is taught and viewed in China.
若要理解這種言論背後的心理，英國政策制定者需要透徹地理解歷史，以及在中國人們接受和看待歷史的方式。Very few British adults have a working knowledge of the opium wars, the history of gunboat diplomacy or the legacy of Britain’s “unequal treaties” and colonial subjugation in China.
在英國成年人中，很少有人真正瞭解兩次鴉片戰爭、艦炮外交的歷史，或者英國對華“不平等條約”以及殖民征服的影響。In stark contrast, every single Chinese primary school student can rattle off a long list of national humiliations suffered at the hands of barbarian invaders, led by the UK and later Japan.
與此形成鮮明對比的是，中國每一所小學的學生都能不假思索地說出野蠻侵略者帶給中國的一長串民族屈辱。這些侵略者正是英國（後來還有日本）領導的。The UK’s historical handicap when it comes to China appears poorly understood by modern British politicians.
在與中國打交道時，現代英國政治家似乎對本國的歷史“污點”知之甚少。Perhaps this is partly because old-fashioned Foreign Office Sinologists are often sidelined in favour of salespeople who can rack up investment and trade deals.
部分原因在於，相比那些能促成大量投資與貿易協議的“推銷人員”，英國外交部那些老派的漢學家們經常處於邊緣地位。But even if Britain’s actions are viewed from a purely commercial perspective, they still do not seem to make much sense.
但是，即便從單純商業角度來考察，英國的舉動似乎仍然並無太大意義。London is one of the world’s top financial centres and Chinese financial flows will naturally gravitate there no matter what her majesty’s government does to “accommodate” Beijing.
倫敦是世界頂級金融中心之一，無論英國政府是否採取措施“遷就”中國，中國的資金流仍將自然地被倫敦吸引過去。The same goes for Chinese trade and investment, which soared spectacularly even in the 18-month period when Britain was in diplomatic deep-freeze following Prime Minister David Cameron’s public meeting with the Dalai Lama.
英中投資與貿易方面也是同理。在戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)公開會見達賴喇嘛(Dalai Lama)之後的18個月裏，雖然英中雙邊關係陷入冰凍期，但投資與貿易規模甚至大幅攀升。
