煉油加入中國產能過剩行業之列

Oil refining is joining steel, coal and aluminium in the ranks of sectors hit by overcapacity in China, with increased production and a drop in truck transport forcing a wave of Chinese diesel sales into international markets.

煉油正在加入鋼鐵、煤炭和鋁的行列，成爲中國又一個存在產能過剩的行業。產量增加和卡車運輸減少迫使中國向國際市場銷售大量柴油。

The structural shift could dent returns for Asian and Middle Eastern refiners, including Saudi Aramco, after years of expansion to meet China’s needs as a net fuel importer.

這種結構性轉變可能削弱亞洲和中東煉油企業的回報，包括沙特阿美公司(Saudi Aramco)，此前這些煉油商進行了多年的擴張，以滿足中國作爲燃油淨進口國的需求。

The start-up of a 10m tonne-per-year refinery in Kunming , south-west China, accounts for about half the anticipated capacity expected to be added in the country this year, swelling an estimated 100m tonnes of existing excess capacity.

位於中國西南部昆明的一座煉油廠投產後，其1000萬噸的年產能達到今年中國預計新增產能的大約一半，使現有的估計爲1億噸的過剩產能進一步膨脹。

China had 710m tonnes of refining capacity at the end of last year, according to the CNPC Research Institute of Economics and Technology.

根據中國石油經濟技術研究院(CNPC Research Institute of Economics and Technology)的數據，去年底中國的煉油總產能達到7.1億噸。

In the short term a bigger impact on Asian fuel trade has come from the relaxed crude import licences that have allowed China’s independent “teapot” refineries to increase their operating rates. Long lines of crude carriers have congested Qingdao port near the teapots’ heartland in Shandong province, accounting for nearly one-third of China’s crude imports in April.

短期而言，對亞洲燃油貿易產生更大沖擊的是中國放鬆原油進口許可，這使中國獨立的“茶壺”煉油廠得以提高開工率。在靠近山東省“茶壺”腹地的青島港，排成長隊的油輪堵塞了港口；這些油輪佔4月中國原油進口量近三分之一。

“Usually you wouldn’t have such a dramatic increase in throughput and utilisation rates in your core refining capacity,” said Thomas Hilboldt, head of resources and Energy research for HSBC in Hong Kong.

“通常你不會看到核心煉油能力的生產量和開工率如此激增，”匯豐(HSBC)香港的資源和能源研究主管托馬斯•希爾伯特(Thomas Hilboldt)表示。

The chemicals and petroleum sector saw the highest number of positive responses among 10 sectors surveyed by the European Chamber of Commerce in China, in its business confidence survey released yesterday.

在中國歐盟商會(European Chamber of Commerce in China)昨日發佈的商業信心調查中，化工和石油行業的正面迴應數量是10個受調查行業中最高的。

China’s two largest refiners, Sinopec and PetroChina, have cut output in the face of increased flow from independent rivals. PetroChina’s average run rates are 80 per cent, down from more typical levels of 90 per cent.

面對獨立競爭對手的增產，中石化(Sinopec)和中石油(PetroChina)這兩家最大的煉油商已進行了減產。中石油的平均開工率是80%，低於90%的正常水平。

Its new Kunming refinery will supply the underserved market of south-west China, displacing product from its Guangxi and Guangdong refineries into international markets.

該集團旗下位於昆明的新煉油廠將供應中國西南部此前服務不到位的市場，使其位於廣西和廣東的煉油廠轉而向國際市場銷售產品。

The other Chinese refineries are increasing output despite declining demand for diesel, as a drop in coal demand and improved rail transport cuts into the number of heavy trucks hauling coal across the country. Because many are designed to maximise diesel production, they must keep operating rates high to achieve the same level of petrol and jet fuel output.

儘管柴油需求下降（因爲煤炭需求下降和鐵路運輸條件改善減少了在全國各地運輸煤炭的重型卡車數量），但中國其他煉油廠正在增產。由於許多煉油廠在設計時以柴油產量最大化爲目標，因此它們必須保持較高的開工率，才能保持汽油和航空燃油產量水平不變。

The result is a flood of diesel into Asian markets. Diesel exports hit their highest daily rate in April, at more than 300,000 barrels a day, following record monthly exports in March.

其結果是大量柴油涌入亞洲市場。4月的每日柴油出口達到最高值，每天超過30萬桶，打破3月剛剛創下的出口紀錄。

“China was a key driver of diesel demand growth over the past several decades but is now a net diesel exporter, contributing to the growing oversupply in global diesel markets,” the US Energy Information Administration said in a recent report.

“中國是過去幾十年柴油需求增長的主要驅動因素，但現在已成爲柴油淨出口國，加劇了全球柴油市場的供應過剩，”美國能源信息署(EIA)在最近一份報告中表示。

That is despite the International Energy Agency’s higher expectations for Chinese fuel demand this year, after stronger than expected economic growth in the first quarter.

這還是在國際能源機構(IEA)上調中國今年燃料需求預測背景下的局面；上調的依據是中國第一季度經濟增長比預期強勁。