中國牛市的推手 低學歷羊羣效應

Chinese stocks followed a familiar script on Wednesday: they rose 1.7%. They’ve been riding high for most of the year—in the first quarter, Shanghai stocks climbed by 16%. They’re now up nearly 90% in the last nine months–all against the background of a slowing economy with abundant signals of stress–if not yet distress–from the financial sector.

週三（4月1日），中國股市又漲了，滬深指數漲幅均在1.7%左右（滬市1.66%，深市1.78%）。2015年以來，A股穩步上揚，滬市一季度上漲了16%，近9個月以來的漲幅接近90%。與此同時，中國經濟正在放緩，中國金融業正面臨巨大壓力，甚至可能出現危機，但股市表現與此背道而馳。

We’ve written about China’s stock markets before, explaining how they tend to draw out the gambling instincts of regular Chinese once a bull market is underway. Price-to-equity ratios and fundamentals are rarely brought up.

我們曾談到過中國股市，解釋爲什麼一旦出現牛市行情，就容易激發中國老百姓的賭性，基本上沒人會關心市盈率和基本面。

Tom Orlik, chief Asia economist at Bloomberg, assembled a great chart that explains the herd mentality. He shows how China’s bull market is being increasingly driven by less educated folks with smaller assets piling into stocks before they miss their chance. Orlik pulls the data from the China Household Finance Survey which surveyed 4,000 households in late 2014 and found a majority of the new investors in China’s market don’t have a high school education (6% are illiterate) and have far fewer assets than those who already own stocks.

彭博首席亞洲經濟學家歐樂鷹用一張圖表直觀展示了中國股民這種“羊羣效應”。這幅圖顯示，中國牛市的動力正越來越多地來自受教育程度較低的股民，他們普遍資金不多，唯恐錯失良機，爭相涌入股市。歐樂鷹引用的數據來自2014年底對4000箇中國家庭的財務狀況調查。他發現，A股市場的新股民大多數沒有高中文憑（6%是文盲），資產也比老股民少得多。